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[General] An example of RNG Streakiness, thanks to BODs.

Discussion in 'UO Craftsman' started by Basara, Apr 20, 2010.

  1. Basara

    Basara UO Forum Moderator
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    I have 5 tailor/smiths, and my extreme miner, who's also a smith.

    Now, the odds of getting the same type of small Smith BOD is easily factored.

    There are 49 types of small smith BOD.

    Traditionally, it is thought that the split between smith bods have the armor & weapon trees are rolled for 50/50; but, we know now that this may not be true, as the tailor BOD system just randomly selects from all small BOD types.

    All, Pooled: The chance of any BOD being the same type (not counting quality, count or material), is 1 in 49.
    Weapon/Armor, Split: Weapon, 1 in 50; Armor, 1 in 48.

    Either way, it's close to a 2% chance that any two consecutive BODs will be the same type, with a fair random system.

    MY first 6 BOD pulls (in a 10 minute period), in order...

    katana
    katana
    executioner's axe
    executioner's axe
    battle axe
    battle axe

    That's hitting a 2% chance 3 times in 5 checks.


    Note that the Tailor chance for two BODs the same is 1 in 55 (12 hats, 4 footwear, 17 other cloth, 22 armor).

    Of the 5 tailor BODs pulled, the last 2 were the same.

    So, a total of 4 roughly 2% chances hit in 9 checks.

    the chance of it occurring is in the millions to one. Yet, this isn't the first time this has happened to me. If only I could get that kind of luck playing Powerball.
     
  2. Sometimes it seems like the R in RNG is missing :)
     
  3. LordDrago

    LordDrago Certifiable
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    Did you also factor in the chacnes for other resource types. Not only did you pull 3 groups of 2, but you also pulled all iron.....
     
  4. Ezekiel Zane

    Ezekiel Zane Grand Inquisitor
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    Isn't the weapon/armor rolled before count, color & quality? All weapon BODs are iron.
     
  5. Basara

    Basara UO Forum Moderator
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    If you notice, I left some uncertainty there, but for the most part B*A = A*B (which isn't exactly the situation in that there is 1 less armor/helmet/shield BOD than there are weapon BODs, it the numbers are damn close).

    It was revealed, after what we THOUGHT were bugs in the Tailor system, that the Tailor system rolls the Small BOD type, THEN the material, if applicable - and pulls the smalls from the pool of ALL SMALL BODs, not divided into clothing & armor, the way we thought they were.

    I gave both steps above, in case either situation occurs (whether there is really a weapon/armor split in the tree, or whether it's anything goes, then the modifiers for color are applied if armor). The quote below is that part, clarified a little.

     
  6. Basara

    Basara UO Forum Moderator
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    Note that of the pullers:

    2 are legendary (pulls 4 & 6)
    2 are elder (pulls 2 & 5; 110 & 117 respectively)
    1 is GM (Pull 1; 105)
    1 is 70 skill (Pull 3, on my carpenter)

    So, with the scattering, skill level didn't play a part. As for color....

    for pulls 1 & 3, the chance of getting an iron BOD are 75% (weapons, and half of armor)
    for pulls 2 & 5, the chance of getting an iron BOD are 65% (weapons, and 30% of armor)
    for pulls 4 & 6, the chance of getting an iron BOD are 55% (weapons, and 10% of armor).

    I wouldn't really blink at 6 iron in a row (would still occur 7.1% of the time, even with armor parts mixed in, with those smiths), or even 6 weapons (1.56%, or 1/64). but, getting THREE PAIRS? IN ORDER???