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attn: Jeremy/Regine - Tailor BOD normal/Exceptional ratio way off

Discussion in 'UHall' started by Basara, Aug 21, 2008.

  1. Basara

    Basara UO Forum Moderator
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    I've been doing research on this for several months, with some of the other tailors.

    Now, according to all previous information, tailor BODs are supposed to be

    50% normal / 50% exceptional at skill under GM

    A greater chance of exceptional (said by a dev in the past to be 60% exceptional) at GM and greater.

    The link below has the current state of our research, turning in BODs to get new ones, with Tailors with 120 skill - with a sample of almost 4400 BOD pulls.

    http://vboards.stratics.com/showthread.php?t=5019

    What appears to be occuring is 2/3 normal, 1/3 exceptional - which is even worse than if the 60/40 ratio was accidentally reversed!

    4393 Total BODs

    Normal: 2936 (66.834%)
    Exceptional: 1457 (33.166%)

    We found out over the years that there was an error in the Blacksmith calculations (a missing Parenthesis). After it was fixed, I've tracked the Smith BODs for 2500 BODs, and they have been accurate to expected numbers within 0.02%

    If the Smith BODs are now that accurate, some thing has to be SERIOUSLY wrong with the Tailor numbers.

    For that matter, what are the ratios of cloth/leather/spined/horned/barbed BODs?
     
  2. Tazar

    Tazar Guest

    Sounds like a FoF question to me... *nudges Jeremy*
     
  3. Kiminality

    Kiminality Guest

    Natural suggestion would be to increase your sample size, and see what happens with the numbers, in case it's an anomaly.
    But, the numbers are strikingly close to thirds, that I think I'd agree. You have a less-than 0.2% deviance from 1/3 and 2/3.
     
  4. Basara

    Basara UO Forum Moderator
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    The sample size is already over 4000 BODs.

    A similar test with smith BODs had any anomalies dissapear within 1000 BODs, and were down to 0.02% of expected by 2500.

    At the current sample size, the results for what SHOULD be a 60% Exceptional result is almost 32.5 Standard Deviations from the norm, and a chance of occurance of less than 0.0001% (the binomial calculator won't go lower than 0.000001, and just shows that with a "less than" symbol)

    At 50%, there's little difference in the numbers.

    Even if you reverse the numbers, and assume 60% normal by accident, with would still be over 9 Standard deviations off the expected norms.
     
  5. athos_uo

    athos_uo Seasoned Veteran
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    From what can you make this supposition? What are the "all previous information"?

    When is this statement said?: "A greater chance of exceptional (said by a dev in the past to be 60% exceptional) at GM and greater."

    I think it moderate normal two thirds and exceptional a third.
     
  6. Barry Gibb

    Barry Gibb Of Saintly Patience
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    What an excellent idea.

    BG
     
  7. Basara

    Basara UO Forum Moderator
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    Previous information:

    Smith base has always been 50/50, with an increase in exceptional at GM, eversince BODs were introduced.

    http://update.uo.com/cgi-bin/comments.pl?id=172

    The description of the Tailoring system, when announced. Note that it mentions the bonus at GM for smiths (whose system was already in place, just missing half the rewards we now have), and that Tailors would get the same bonus.

    The bonus to Blacksmith & tailor may no longer exist for GM (though devs have stated in the period that we haven't yet recoverd Stratics data for, that it existed. Data since the Smith changes of November-February wnet into effect, cast doubt that the Smith GM exceptional bonus is working properly since the changes, but DOES support a 50/50 split. (difference over 2500 BODs pulled by a 120 smith is 15 more normals than Ex, for the 2351 small BODs, well within normal probability for an even chance).

    Much more haphazard testing of sub-120 (but 70 minimum skill) Tailors seems to show that they are seeing the same discrepency in Exceptional vs. normal BOD numbers as the legendary ones whose data was more scientifically recorded.

    Something is wrong in the server-side calculations. And, unlike the long standing smith issues that were fixed late last year, the issue isn't in the LBOD code (as much as tailors whine about the lack of tailor larges, they are dropping at the normal rate - what made them seem slow is that the smith colored larges dropped at an abnormally high rate, until that missing ")" was discovered and fixed in the smith code around November - that and 55% of all tailor BODs appear to be cloth, and another 32-33% leather & spined, when the power-gamer tailors were looking for horned and barbed EX 6-part larges for barbed kits)