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Awful truth about runic hammers (moved)

Discussion in 'UHall' started by Paulanius, Jul 1, 2009.

  1. Paulanius

    Paulanius Guest

    I posted it on the player's corner forum, but I think this place is more suitable, so feel free to delete the old one :)

    So I just returned and really started to do some calculations about runic hammers, the results were devastating (warning: lots of maths)

    The following calculations were based on chances to get MAX % for each desired weapon properties: Dull Copper Runic Hammer (DCRH) will be used as an example and the others will only have data presented.


    Dull Copper:
    Chance to get 1 MAX stat = 1/61 (as the range of min to max is 61%)
    Chance to get desired MAX property #1 = 1/61 x 1/24 (as there are 24 possible properties for weapon) = 1 in 1464 weapon produced
    As there are 50 charges on the DCRH, it will possibly need 30 DCRH to get 1 desired MAX property.

    Possible minimum number of DCRH needed for 2 MAX: 82160

    ----------------Possible minimum No. of hammer needed----------------
    Shadow RH:
    1 MAX: 30
    2 MAX: 38469
    ----------------
    Copper RH:
    1 MAX: 31
    2 MAX: 35894
    3 MAX: 80545688
    ----------------
    Bronze RH:
    1 MAX: 32
    2 MAX: 33373
    3 MAX: 33772811
    ----------------
    Gold RH:
    1 MAX: 33
    2 MAX: 30931
    3 MAX: 27899221
    4 MAX: 48042458218
    ----------------
    Agapite RH:
    1 MAX: 35
    2 MAX: 28616
    3 MAX: 22663619
    4 MAX: 17133695632
    ----------------
    Verite RH:
    1 MAX: 38
    2 MAX: 26524
    3 MAX: 18089096
    4 MAX: 11776000976
    5 MAX: 292044824184960
    ----------------
    Valorite RH:
    1 MAX: 26
    2 MAX: 9421
    3 MAX: 3316122
    4 MAX: 1114216858
    5 MAX: 356549394432
    ----------------
    FYI: A lottery that consists of 45 numbers with 7 numbers drawn each time, the chance to win is 1 in 45379620.

    So to get 3 MAX from a Valorite RH weapon,
    the chance is 1 in (3316122 x 15) = 1 in 49741830, even higher than the chance to win a lottery.

    Thats the awful truth about runic hammers. But if you are satisfied with the lower stats provided by the Valorite RH, the chance to get the desired properties are still very low. (1/24 for #1, 1/552 for #2, 1/12144 for #3, 1/255024 for #4 and 1/5100480 for #5)

    If you multiply the above numbers with the ingots needed per weapon, that will nearly make the existence of such a weapon impossible.

    Feel free to give comments or adjustments for the above calculations, but so far I think they are correct :)
     
  2. Dermott of LS

    Dermott of LS UOEC Modder
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    Interesting info, but will be generally rendered moot in the coming months.

    Personally, I think the biggest issue with Runic HAMMERS is the rarity of the higher end Hammers vs Sewing Kits coupled with the issue of Leather being an automatically BETTER armor option than metal.

    Rebalancing armors IMO is a bigger issue than Runic chances, but that's just me
     
  3. Lynk

    Lynk Grand Poobah
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    Are you kidding? The samurai crafted armor from a val hammer is way better than what you can get from a barbed kit.
     
  4. Tjalle

    Tjalle Grand Inquisitor
    Professional Stratics Veteran Campaign Supporter Gilfane

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    There, fixed it for ya...
     
  5. Maplestone

    Maplestone Crazed Zealot
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    Your "1 max" calculation may be a little off for a couple of reasons ...

    1st, if you 2 properties, you have two chances to have one at max.

    2nd, luck is the only property that truly goes from 1-100. Others have smaller ranges like 1-20, 1-15, 1-8 or even all-or-nothing. You don't always have to roll "100" to get a max property.

    3rd, not all properties are equally likely - some are common, some are rare - which will affect your calculations.

    (although it does occur to me that I've generally been satisfied with "close to 100%" when working on LRC suits or luck suits)
     
  6. Paulanius

    Paulanius Guest

    Thats why my final result was based on the desired properties that the player wants, not just 1 max random.

    I think the game rounds down for properties, so you do need 100% for MAX.

    I am not sure about the rare/common properties theory, might need some evidence to support it.
     
  7. jfkeach

    jfkeach Guest

    I will tell you the truth.. as i see it.. I have a uber mule.. 120 Smithing/Tailor, GM Fletch/Armslore/Carp/Tink, with enough music and magery to make most everything.. (I use jewels to tweak the magery to get high enough to make some of the house addons)

    I can spend hours and hours doing the fletch quests in heartwood.. I went through about 300k boards with not even an oak runic reward.... i have never gotten heartwood kit... and I was frustrated...

    I sent email to UO about this.. and started doing quests.. first one i got oak.. now im trying to see how long it takes to get another..

    I had sat there one day.. one guy got 4 runics in a hour.. and i was theere for 8 and got nothing....

    I used to do BODs.. On PAC before they nerfed the hammers, I had gotten rich off of VAL Hammers... since coming to Atlantic.. I have not gotten anything above gold..

    and on the tailoring.. never got barbed.. and one day i gave away about 9500 Bods and quit doing them.. .and that is with TWO mule chars getting them daily....

    So, I am so frustrated with the RUNIC system, that I will just buy the runics, and let others sweat blood to get them.. im tired of the system.. and it needs to be reworked.. with gold costing so little now and so easy to get it easier to just buy the kits than to work for them
     
  8. Setnaffa

    Setnaffa Certifiable
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    Way better? And how is that? Both add 5 properties up to 100% intensity. So how does one make "WAY" better armor than the other?

    I would never make armor from a Val Hammer. Here are the two reasons why...

    1) Val Hammers are 100 times more rare than a BRSK. By the time you earn (Earn...not by buying duped hammers) enough Val Hammers to make your perfect suit, I'll have 100 of them made from my BRSK's.
    2) You can't make weapons with a Barbed Kit. The only tool you can use to make top-end smith weapons are Val Hammers (OK...Verites can too). When I get my 1 Val hammer each year, the last thing I'm going to do is waste it on Armor I can make every day with a Barbed Kit.

    As for the OP's numbers. Not even close. See Maplestone's post above for just some of the flaws in your reasoning. Properties are rounded to the nearest valid intensity. They aren't rounded down. Also Maplestone is right. The dev's have stated some properties are more rare than others.
     
  9. Paulanius

    Paulanius Guest

    Thats the frustration about probabilities, not to mention the chances are so low in this case. They should make the BOD and quests much harder (still soloable) and increase the chance to get the item.
     
  10. Dermott of LS

    Dermott of LS UOEC Modder
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    The ONLY armor piece I can see even needing to be crafted via a Runic kit of any type are Arms... everything else is pretty well covered (outside of sets) by Artifacts or "special" items.
     
  11. Paulanius

    Paulanius Guest

    Alright, than it makes things even harder now isn't it? As I assume the rare properties are the ones that most players needed. A maximum intensity of 15% will need at least a roll of 97%, so it is indeed far off, to the even more horrible end.
     
  12. Bomb Bloke

    Bomb Bloke Lore Keeper
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    If your "desired MAX property" is something like Mage Armor/Spell Channeling/Nightsight, then there is merely a 1/24 chance of getting it - you don't need to worry about intensity in that instance, as it's a guaranteed 100%.

    Because the hammer has a chance of producing two properties, then in the event of the first property failing, there is still a possibility remaining to get your "desired MAX property" on the next.

    With each property rolled that is not the one you want, the chances of getting it on the next increase. Intensity only matters on the property you want.

    So to get one max property out of a Val hammer:

    23/24th of a chance not to get it from the first property.
    22/23rd of a chance not to get it from the second property.
    21/22
    20/21
    19/20

    23/24 x 22/23 x 21/22 x 20/21 x 19/20 = 4037880/5100480 = 100947/127512nd chance not to roll the property you want at all.

    Leaving a 26565/127512 chance that you will roll it (around 20%).

    26565/127512 x 1/16 = 26565/2040192 = 1/76.8 (~1%) to get that property at 100%.

    15 attempts per hammer = ~6 hammers on average to get at least one desired property at 100%. Assuming the property isn't automatically 100%, in which case you'd be very unlucky not to get it from one single hammer.

    On getting all five perfect (again with the Val hammer), you also have to remember that the properties don't need to come in order, and the range of properties available decreases with each prior roll.

    For eg:

    1/16 x 5/24 = 5/384th of a chance to get max for the first property
    1/16 x 4/23 = 4/368th for the next (can't roll the same property twice)
    1/16 x 3/22 = 3/352
    1/16 x 2/21 = 2/336
    1/16 x 1/20 = 1/320

    5/384 x 4/368 x 3/352 x 2/336 x 1/320 = 120/5,348,240,916,480 = 1/44,568,674,304th of a chance to get a "perfect" item with any given crafting attempt.

    15 attempts per hammer = ~2,971,244,954 Val hammers (about 3 billion, not ~350 billion) to get a "perfect" item (on average, of course). Dramatically less if some of your desired properties come in at 100% intensity automatically.
     
  13. Paulanius

    Paulanius Guest

    However, if the so called rare properties are 1/100 chance to get (1% is what I call rare at least) than those properties might come in the 300 billion hammers.
     
  14. Bomb Bloke

    Bomb Bloke Lore Keeper
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    Granted, but no one's suggested any exact figures on how rare properties may be... I seriously doubt any have a 1/100 chance of appearing. ;)

    The odds will in practise seem to improve, as my figures for the "all around perfect" item assume the player will only accept five specific properties. In-game, most players would accept getting 100% phys resist in place of, say, 100% poison resist, on the basis that this can be made up for by the other parts of their suit.

    (That is to say, five properties at 100% is probably gonna be a very good item regardless of what those properties are).
     
  15. Dermott of LS

    Dermott of LS UOEC Modder
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    ...

    When you reach the "cap" either the Natural cap of Boolean values or "reduction beyond 100%" or artifical caps (resists, regens, etc) long before you run out of possible pieces that can hold the mod, 100% intensity as Bomb says isn't nearly as improtant, so a 5x 100% piece is mainly a "starter" for a set. Once you get several pieces into the set, you begin to need to figure out the levels of mods that are and are not needed.

    Not to mention that everyone's idea of "5 perfect mods" will ALWAYS be different due to item and template necessities.
     
  16. JC the Builder

    JC the Builder Crazed Zealot
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    If you burn a runic tool expecting a certain spread of properties, you are going to get disappointed a lot. If you burn a runic tool just looking for good items which you can use or sell, you are going to be a much happier person.

    Burning a runic is pretty much like looting a monster. You never know what you are going to get and setting out with a specific item in mind is futile. If the item you need such a specific item then you need to acquire it through trade.
     
  17. Omnius

    Omnius Crazed Zealot
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    this is odd. The standard faction mage suit incorporates crafted legs arms and gloves. Now of those parts. Only the gloves are ever crafted from barbed kits. The rest is typically valorite crafted samurai armor made through valorite or verite hammers though occasionally agapite or gold hammers are able to craft the high end legs and arms required of mid to high tiered mage.
     
  18. Paulanius

    Paulanius Guest

    That's why I was talking about weapon crafting here, not armor crafting. There is only one weapon you can equip.
     
  19. Paulanius

    Paulanius Guest

    Granted, so I think it is more profitable to sell a Valorite hammer at a high price instead of risking 15 times for something "good" or "just acceptable". Otherwise, just keep killing high end monsters with luck armor might be a more cost efficient way in long term.
     
  20. Bomb Bloke

    Bomb Bloke Lore Keeper
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    You can't get items comparable to crafted gear by killing monsters. It's literally impossible, unless you're including artifacts.
     
  21. Paulanius

    Paulanius Guest

    Yes, instead of buying the hammer, spend them on artifacts, that will be another option.
     
  22. That is a lie.

    Though Exact qualities are not burned into my memory, I can tell you with absolute certainty that seemly impossibly good weapons are quite possible from monster loot, although this particular piece came from Parox.

    It was a Hit Lighting ~50, Hit Life ~55, HCI 15, SSI 30, DI ~50 Ornate Axe.

    It may not have 6 mods, but I'd say it is quite comparable to some of the best high-end crafted gear.
     
  23. Tinsil

    Tinsil Guest

    Are any of you guys other than Lynk any good at all at this game?

    Have you not seen the differences between Val Hammer crafted Samurai Armor and barbed kits? Lol at looting good armor, cmon.

    I guess if you want to just kill basic stuff that's okay, but I can tell none of you are serious pvpers.
     
  24. ZidjiN

    ZidjiN Babbling Loonie
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    First, yes i kindof agree with you. The chanses to get good weapons are very slim but i for one have looted items that i have sold for over 100mill.
    Ive been hunting for thousands of hours during my time in UO and i really think that the moster drops truly suck. The only thing thats really worth checking on a monster corpse is Jewels.
     
  25. Farsight

    Farsight Crazed Zealot
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    On the odds in general:

    Unless we know which are the rare mods (I know slayer property is one, and super-slayer is even rare for a slayer, apart from that, I don't know) and which are the common mods, there's no point in trying to figure it out.

    Also I belive that the mods on weapons are grouped in much the same way that mods on jewelry are grouped, in that only certain properties can take up each "slot" for a mod. That means that for each weapon, for example, you would have a 1 in 5 or 1 in 6 chance (depending on the slot) of scoring "mage weapon." This improves the chance of certain combinations of weapons very significantly. For example, I have a friend who uses a lot of runic hammers (I don't craft myself, but I help her pick out the good and not-so-good items) and I see the combination of spell channeling mage weapon quite a bit... a LOT more often than it would be possible from just the 1/24 and 1/23 from picking from everything.

    But that is only my idea, and I haven't taken the time or effort to prove it yet.

    On weapons-as-loot:
    Weapons are always worth looking at, even from low-end creatures, in case you find that one weapon that makes all the extra time worth it. For example, I pulled a demon slayer/mana leech/SSI sword off of a demon during the Magincia invasion. Yes, that's one weapon two years ago, but that one weapon was worth two more years of "another trash drop" from low-to-mid range creatures.

    Also, since most good val-kit weapons only have 4 or 5 desirable mods, high end monsters frequently drop good weapons for 99% of the UO population. For example, I frequently find weapons from strongbox quests (well, relatively frequently... especially compared to the supposed frequency of high end hammer BODs) which can compete with high end hammer weapons, like my double axe with mana leech, stamina leech, SSI, DI and HLD.

    On kit burning:
    If you only get one valorite hammer a year, you will more than likely make more gold by selling the hammer. If you have the funds and buy several hammers at a time, you will likely make more gold by using the hammer. To use fletching kits as an example, I have a friend (same friend as mentioned before) who bought a bunch of heartwood fletching kits and made three weapons which could sell for 100 million or more (from the first two kits, mind you, then nothing for a long time) and one which did sell (we kept the 100 mil bows) for 80 million. But more often than not, the kits turn out weapons that are worth significantly less than the price of the hammer/kit itself.
     
  26. RichDC

    RichDC Guest

    I do get a chuckle when i hear people say that the armour from a BRk is the same as val!

    Its so funny its almost sad...1st of the base mods of a val are MUCH higher than the 50% of a barbed, in fact you have to go as low as gold to reach the same lowest mod. 2nd val is guaranteed 5mods, BRK is guaranteed 3(i think). 3rd, metal offers better resist in different areas. As all my suits tend to be low fire and poison i always make armour out of verite. You just cant get that customization in 3materials!

    Proof? Search and try to find a 20mil+ pair of barbed runic arms/legs/gorgs. Then, search for 20mil+ paris of metal arms/legs and gorgs. I bet that there is maybe 10pieces across all shards that are leather and probably 10+ on GL or ATL alone of metal!
     
  27. Farsight

    Farsight Crazed Zealot
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    Search completed:
    Currently on all shards, all armor types (Luna only):
    Metal pieces 10 mil +: 23
    Leather pieces 10 mil +: 2

    The leather pieces are both arms, the armor pieces are mostly mempo.
     
  28. R Traveler

    R Traveler Babbling Loonie
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    This is wrong. 15 uses mean you have better chances. Your math is: more uses=lower chances.
     
  29. Paulanius

    Paulanius Guest

    1299076 = number of hammers, x15 = uses, no change to anything, its just a conversion. The number of 1299076 was obtained after the number of uses was divided by 15 to get the number of hammers needed. Just like saying, 5 cups of water, each cup = 500 ml, the total volume is 2.5 L. Now divide 2.5 L by 5, each cup of water is 500 ml.

    Simply put, you will possibly need 1299076 hammers, but thats 1299076 x 15 uses of the hammer and 1 of these weapons produced might have a chance to get the desired quality.
     
  30. Bomb Bloke

    Bomb Bloke Lore Keeper
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    BRK's have 4-5 properties at 50-100% intensity. The maximum leather material bonus is +12 to resists (from barbed leather).

    VRH's have 5 properties at 60-100% intensity. The maximum metal material bonus is +13 to resists (from valorite, which also adds extra durability to armor).

    So, at their best, the only advantage metal has over leather is one resistance point and some extra durability. On average you'd expect to get better gear from metal, though.

    Both tool types have 15 uses, but leather always produces medable armor - a smith can also achieve this, but he needs a decent Ancient Hammer to do it.

    Non-crafted items lack exceptional/arms lore bonuses, but can at least take on material bonuses (with a lot of RL luck).
     
  31. UOKaiser

    UOKaiser Guest

    A lot of you have alot of trouble with the BOD system. I don't know I hope most of you don't go and get a bod every 6 hours or turn in just a 100-100 and believe that a val hammer is waiting for you afterwards.
    On the same note stop shooting for just val hammers they will come but verite,aga,gold are much more plentiful and easier. Powder-bronze and below all have there many uses. It's a fun trip. You must start a collection.

    Look at it this way if your in it to sell the hammers by the time you get your first 1x25-30 mil val you will have at least 6x15mil verites, 15x8 mil agapites and 35x3-4 mil gold hammers. Not to mention 100-200x330k bronze, 1000x40k copper,untold amounts of dull and shadow. 1000x35-50k powders, 75x300k 30+ancient hammers, 25x5mil 60+ancient hammers and gold from the larges and smalls that you turn in that make up somewhat for the resources you buy or dig up.

    After that your collection should be build up that you be receiving at least that last bod you need to finish one of your bod larges a month. So youre perception on the frequency of your rewards will be changed. But when you first start it's gonna take a long time to build up the collection. Could be faster buy buying other peoples junk bods,having plenty of gathering characters and able to log in alot per hour, DO this in multiple servers then spend money on xsharding all those bods over. Fnding people that have gotten frustrated with the system giving away there bods. Just jump right in. Building the collection is what matters first.

    The chances to get max role is not that high actually. I usually get a max role on something every high end hammer I burn and every few low end hammers. The rest get close to max depending on the hammer but that's good enough. The best of the best should remain rare as always.
    Realize this is a crafters job. You need to spend alot time doing this.But being real as long as you have time to fill them, gather them,orgnize them and turn them in then you can do this and everything else in game like must of us do.
     
  32. Farsight

    Farsight Crazed Zealot
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    The lowest intensity from a valorite runic hammer is 85%, not 60%.
     
  33. Bomb Bloke

    Bomb Bloke Lore Keeper
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    Whoops. Now I'm scratching my head trying to work out where on earth I got 60% from.
     
  34. Lynk

    Lynk Grand Poobah
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    Higher minimum intensity, more specific resists, just... better.

    Granted you CAN get a piece close to as good from a barbed, just takes a lot longer.

    Just like you CAN get good looted pieces, for example I got some legs that are (after enhancing) 8/17/9/18/6 with 2 mr, 6 lmc, and 18 lrc)
     
  35. Fluffi

    Fluffi Slightly Crazed
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    Why is this topic even being discussed?

    BRSKs and high-end hammers have been duped to such a degree that only players who CBA to do a bit of profitable PvM can't afford them.

    You want that particular piece to complete your suit; script-camp your favourite monster until you have the cash to buy multiple runic tools.

    Legitimate personal crafting in UO is dead. You cannot compete with the dupers. Go with the flow, and buy tools - no questions asked.

    :sad3:
     
  36. Maplestone

    Maplestone Crazed Zealot
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    My crafters disagree with you.
     
  37. Scratch

    Scratch Guest

    rarity of highend runic hammers? i know several people that will sell you 100 val runic hammers for cash right now, and tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow. and to ten of your friends too if you so wish it.

    samurai armor made with said duped hammers make barbed kits seem more lile spined ones.
     
  38. Basara

    Basara UO Forum Moderator
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    And, as duped items, I will never use a hammer I didn't earn, PERIOD. Personally, I think even advocating use of obviously duped items should be at worst moderated/deleted, with a warning not to repeat it (worse penalties if warning ignored). But, this isn't my forum (even if it's the subject of the forum I moderate)

    And, Barbed kits haven't been duped for YEARS, Fluffi.

    Ever since the changes to the BOD system were made (4 years ago) to get a new BOD when turning in an old one, Barbed kits have become plentiful, LEGITIMATELY. I'm currently sitting on over a dozen Barbed kits I've not used simply because I've not had the need - and I've got 50 horned kits that make things nearly as good, that have filled the holes in my suit much more easily than burning the barbed kits.

    Granted, it's possible that many of the BRSKs may be SCRIPTED now, but they sure aren't being duped, and I doubt that the percentage of scripted BRSKs (of all Barbed kits for sale) is 10% of the percentage of duped Val hammers for sale (of all Val hammers being sold).
     
  39. davebobbit

    davebobbit Guest

    To the OP, Im not convinced by your maths. There is a lot more to it which some replies have already pointed out. All i will say is that why dont you try your theory out on the test centre? Pick a stat, pick a hammer and I bet your results wont match with your theory.