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Does the difficulty of the quest change the chaces of getting a runic?

Discussion in 'UHall' started by Derrick83, Jul 22, 2009.

  1. Derrick83

    Derrick83 Guest

    Well I am training fletching by doing the heartwood quests... it seems to go in order...

    At 0 skill they have the lethal darts quest to get you up to the minimum still to make bows.

    After that they have "A simply bow" that lets you make bows.. the next quest is cross bows... which you can make once you hit 60 skill... then heavy cross bows for the next quest that take 80 skill... then repeating cross bows for the last quest that take 90 skill...

    So its like
    Lethal Darts = 0 - 29.9 skill
    Simple Bow = 30 - 59.9
    Ingenious Archery Part I = 60 - 79.9
    Ingenious Archery Part II = 80 - 89.9
    Ingenious Archery Part III = 90 - 100


    Since in order to even do the last quest you HAVE to have atleast 90 skill to make a repeating crossbow... does this mean that you have a better chance to get a fletching runic with that quest? Kind of a risk vs reqard thing... since it takes more skill it reaps better rewards???

    Otherwise it would seem that mode people could sit there on a character without ANY skill and get the same chance at a heartwood kit by turning in crossbow bolts... and its a lot less wood comsumption because 5000 bolts is only 5000 wood and that would yield 500 backpacks...

    So do you have any better chance of gettin ga runic from doing bow quest vs lethal darts? Do you get a better chance by doing the Part III bs the Part II??
     
  2. It is the same chance for each quest reward, and does not matter which quest you complete. In fact, you do not even need to make the requested item... if you can buy it from and NPC, those will do.
     
  3. Maplestone

    Maplestone Crazed Zealot
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    Are you certain that's still true? (I haven't explored the hidden mysteries of publish 59 yet)
     
  4. Hmmm... no, I haven't check it out. You aren't suggesting that something got changed without being announced are you?

    Errm... like the BOD reward changes....

    *drops his TOT minor and rushes to Heartwood for testing*
     
  5. Cloak&Dagger

    Cloak&Dagger Guest


    lol. This is a bit harder to test than the BOD system is, since the results are not cunclusive considering they are based on the rng, so you will never be able to test the actual "odds" of getting a particular runic based on the quest you partake in, so...Dev's? Maybe a little help on this one?
     
  6. Derrick83

    Derrick83 Guest

    This is kind of what I was getting at..... I have seen a few post here and a few more in the crafters section since the change came out. Then today I STARTED training fletching by doing the quest and within the first 2500 boards I had a yew AND a heartwood kit.. I was like.. uhhhh hrm..


    I just wanted to know if possibly the numbers were tweaked(because really they needed to be) so they were not so hard to get.
     
  7. Sure you can estimate the actual odds of getting a runic. It's a binomial distribution where:
    p = probability of the event
    n = number of trials
    r = occurrences of success

    so that the probability of r occurrences in n trials is

    [n!/r!(n-r)!] * p^r * q^(n-r)

    What that means when the probability of occurrence is very low, it takes one hella lot of trials! And when the probability is very low, the RNG will probably have a huge factor that can't be calculated.

    Dang... screwed once again by the RNG
     
  8. JoO

    JoO Seasoned Veteran
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    They did something with it I'm not entirely sure what yet. Several people have reported a big increase in kit drops myself included. But then I haven't gotten anything but a couple oaks in the last few sessions.
     
  9. Spellbound

    Spellbound Lore Keeper
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    Pleased that character actually has a chance at runics now! In the past, after 300,000 boards, my fletcher has only scored ONE oak runic. Today, he received an oak and a yew kit in less than 4k boards.