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ERTS - Remember this, in relation to UO history

Discussion in 'UHall' started by AesSedai, Jan 19, 2011.

  1. AesSedai

    AesSedai Guest

    - Aye, by all means talk about it if you
    'think'
    you want to.

    How does UO effect it? How will it and how may it?

    UO is our community (esp. if read backwards : in a way, like history ...---... )

    (~ Reminder to AesSedai: more detailed thread when back from {8day} vacation.. ~)
     
  2. Arcus

    Arcus Grand Poobah
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  3. Trebr Drab

    Trebr Drab Guest

    ERTS is EA's stock on the Nasdaq stock exchange. (Just for those who still need their coffee.)

    EA's in big trouble. Years of lack of innovation, misguided projections, poor judgment and management practices have left EA losing stock value in a big way.

    But EA's not alone. The entire MMORPG industry is in trouble. Everyone's trying to copy WoW, which copied EQ but did it the best anyone could do it.

    But these companies haven't realized two things, two very important things.
    1) There's no room to compete with WoW by copying it. They are established. They have worked out the bugs. They have added loads of content. The only way to compete with that is IF players wanted an all new game of the same sort, same experience, same thing. But that leads to number 2.
    2) Players don't want more of the same. For several years now, players have left WoW to try out new games of the same sort, games that copied the "tried and true" falseness that was WoW. They've always gone back. The fanbois say it's because of bugs and incomplete content, mostly at "end game". But I'll tell you, most gamers are not the powergamers that the fanbois are. They never got to "end game". And they don't pick up on bugs like the fanbois do. They left and went back to WoW anyways.

    Why? Exactly because it IS "more of the same". They don't want to build characters all over again. They don't want to go through it all again. They create new characters in WoW just for something to do, not because they want to go through it all again. And they still have their maxed and leveled characters to play when they want. The average gamer is not a powergamer.

    And WoW brought in a lot of average gamers to MMORPGs. Most of them never knew about MMOs before WoW. And most of them never played anything but Single Player games. So what WoW gave them was quite acceptable in that Single Player game style. Yet, they expected a world, and now that they've played the Single Player game style of WoW (EQ clone), they have hit an expected wall. A wall that the game producers can't seem to see. That wall is the expectation of a "world". And the level/item quest grind is not that. And THAT is why they have been looking for a new game. Yet everyone is trying to give them "more of the same".

    -------------

    More and more are going to FtP in desperate attempts to save themselves. And FtP is a sham for MMORPGs. It works and then leads to a drop off, in this sort of game. Because only 6% of players buy cash shop things, leaving 94% who aren't enthused or willing, leaving a large number of possible drop offs from the "game". Cash Shops work for very casual games like on FaceBook, games that didn't cost a lot to produce. But there is a finite amount of $dollars$ out there willing to be spent in this way. And the market for those $dollars$ has quickly saturated. It may not have peeked yet, but it will. And then the competition gets really hot, but mostly we'll see the same trouble that the MMO industry is currently seeing.

    So, overall, gaming is looking at a bleak future. They realize this to an extent, but I don't think fully yet. Gaming needs to change, but they don't know how or what to change it to.

    ------------------------

    And that brings us to EA and SWTOR and UO, etc. SWTOR in trouble and they know it now because of lack of enthusiasm and ridicule on message boards. They also see, I'm sure, that there's been a drop off in interest for MMORPGs in general over the last year. But they know they are in trouble, and they've spent a boatload of money on it. They also are looking at legal problems and expenses, and general failure elsewhere in their investments. As the links have shown, they've lost more than half their value in stocks. And their future isn't looking too bright.

    How does all this affect UO? Well, as a company, the orders are filtering down. Get more profitable. Period. And their response for UO is likely to be just as unimaginative and full of poor judgment as they've shown to be for quite some time now. It's likely to be FtP.

    The funny thing is, that the way out of the doldrums that MMORPGs have been experiencing is exactly what UO was made to be. Worldly and Sandbox. And while I think there are people at EA that can lead them out of this mess, as a company, they are lost. As a company they are stuck in "copy" mode. They wouldn't recognize innovation if they saw it, for the most part.
     
  4. Beer_Cayse

    Beer_Cayse Guest

    Well written and pretty much sums up how I feel. This last paragraph is the telling one. The killer to all this is I'm also sure there is/are some voice(s) at EA trying to break through the lethargy ... and I'm thinking they get smashed down by the grinding weight of "it won't work"-ness. <sigh>
     
  5. Tina Small

    Tina Small Stratics Legend
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  6. Trebr Drab

    Trebr Drab Guest

    I've been following The Secret World for a while, although casually. They really impressed me with their web site clue stunt to kick things off. It's very interesting. But not enough solid info yet.

    But my first love is fantasy. Followed by sci-fi. Modern day stuff isn't much of a desire for me. Still, if there's nothing else out there, and if it's what they say it is and they do it well, I'd be there in a flash.
     
  7. Trebr Drab

    Trebr Drab Guest

    Yeah, I hate that. Always have. Losers accept that something will fail, winners overcome problems. As much as I don't like the EQ clones, Blizzard did just that with WoW. And look what that got them. Imagine UO had they spent that kind of money on it, with the original design idea. Except for that one problem that they never properly solved, rampant PKing and other grief.
     
  8. Lady Storm

    Lady Storm Crazed Zealot
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    I have been telling people that EA stock is going down and is the driver for UO.

    You want a voice in UO??

    Buy the stock...
    I am dead serious.. at the spot quote today for a small investment the players could own UO.
    Yes the board of directors runs the show.... quite honestly they just sit on their tails and collect a big fat check for heming and hawing about sales an the stockholders pancakes.

    EA has had big sellers ... top one was the stand alone: Madden Football

    On MMO's it has a dismal track record....

    EA took UO and Origin from the Gariotts and litterlay dumped every new mmo that Origin had in the works ..many of which would have made good money had they left them be.
    (Took= EA took complete charge and got rid of any Origin person who would fight them)

    Each time EA put its collective hand in UO we got the shaft.

    Remember that comic book artist?? He walked away from UO with millions in his pocket and what did we get??
    Lousy art that sucked and lost players and revenu.

    EA has made bad decisions reguarding UO with Dev staff, Advertising, Marketing, GM's, Moving UO HQ, etc.. the list is so big we dont have days to read it all.

    Suffice it to say the EA complete takeover was the worst thing for UO.

    EA needs to go back to its roots and make stand alone games which made the company a giant.
    With this let Mythic and Bio who are MMO makers and our best bet to stay alive run the online market. They do know how to run and maintain UO.
    They just need EA's mits out of the mix. Cal and the Dev are greatly limited on how far they can go UO wise by EA's strong arm over its propertys and how it wants things to run.... and pay.
    We dont have gms as EA fired or let go 99% of them and valuable other members of all its divisions. Rather then take a cut in their pay at the top... kinda like the banks didnt want to ether.

    Buy the stock ... did you know every stock holder carries a voice in the meetings ??
    A share of EA's ERTS stock is 15.95 per
    Hehe oh if only we were smart and could buy a chunk of EA.....and group it... (UO Dreams of a better world to play in...) Who would be laughing then??
     
  9. Arcus

    Arcus Grand Poobah
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    Just because the stock is cheap does not mean that buying some stock will get you a voice in what happens to UO. There are millions of people who own stock either through direct or by was of a portfolio.

    You would have to buy enough stock to get out of the noise level of all of those people and THEN buy enough to get above the big holders.

    At a market cap of 5.2 BILLION DOLLARS (thats total number of shares * $15.89 or whatever the price per share is now, roughly) that would be ALOT of money.

    Millions of dollars of stock at least to get some voice in what happens.

    It wont work.

    No they don't. Thats an urban legend. If you really want to spend you $15.89 and go to a meeting and convince the gusy there (the ones who actually DID spend millions) why your $15.89 has any weight against their very large capital investment. Ill wait here...
     
  10. Cloak&Dagger

    Cloak&Dagger Guest

    Agreed, the meetings are on a voting basis, so you would need 51% of the vote to have a voice. The only reason the big investors have a "voice" is because if they bail out collectively EA will fail. It is hardly ever 1 of the big investors, it is usually them getting together to discuss things and then going to EA with their collective ultimatum. (Or any other company for that matter.)
     
  11. Lady Storm

    Lady Storm Crazed Zealot
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    Sorry boys I have been a stock holder in companys like HD and TI for years and I can tell you if a stock holder wants to talk or make a motion they can send in written note and get heard. Stock holders do have voices in business and are not just a money lender of a sorts to the firms they hold. If the average UO player bought 10 shares and grouped up all UO players who did so in a voting block, your opinion would be heard.
     
  12. will be heard .. *yawn* yeah so?

    How about some concrete examples of "the little guys" voice/opinion being acted on?
    And to what end ...

    Buying stock doesn't equate to buying IQ and/or wisdom ...

    It'll still be Uhaller's yelling into a different hole.

    so yeah ... elucidate on a few success examples ...
    something to model a campaign on ...

    Till then, your just talking about talking.

    Just saying ...>I< have spoken at stock holders meetings ...

    who you all gonna put forward ... :lol: gotta stop now.
     
  13. Cloak&Dagger

    Cloak&Dagger Guest

    lol...and the vote would be 99% to 1% if the "average uo player bought 10 stock", not to mention at the current share price you are asking everyone to spend $158 to not get anything done, not to mention in another thread you going on about how "everyone is cutting back" So does the average UO player have 158 dollars to spend on a dead end cause? It is a voting system, your "voice" means nothing if you do not hold a serious chunk of the company as losing your $158 means nothing to EA or its shareholders compared to losing the 3.5 billion that the majority share holders own.

    Do the math, assume 100k subs, at 10 shares, is only 1million shares, so that is right around....1/333. Going to have to do better than that I am afraid, or do you think you are going to convince another 200million worth of stock opinion to be on your side?
     
  14. grig_since98

    grig_since98 Guest

    Its not an "urban legend", as I do indeed get information from some of my retirement investments about voting, but its just not very practical. I never get any such thing from most of my mutual funds and retirement funds because I'm sure along the way I signed something assigning a proxy to vote. Also, as mentioned, unlike in government, your "vote" is proportional to the amount of stock you own. Others have presented numbers regarding cost of stock and the amount of shares here, and while I haven't read it myself, I have no reason to disbelieve them. EA is a huge company.

    Also, as mentioned, it isn't as simple as what the stockholders want. I don't know how this works, but I imagine that EA will acquire money by loans or whatever from people with large amounts of capital to work on a new project. If this entity can just take their money and walk, I imagine they have a lot of influence.
     
  15. Thav12

    Thav12 Seasoned Veteran
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    one way is to actually buy the game from EA. Right now that seems a bit ridiculous to many, as I have mentioned it before, but with the right mindset and organization, it is very possible. That way you can create ownership shares that will actually mean something to the people that own them. It would become more of a "club". Not saying that that would be an easy way to do it, but if EA wants to can the game and pull the plug, this might be a way to preserve the game... tough to come up with the initial capital though... :)
     
  16. Arcus

    Arcus Grand Poobah
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    If someone offered enough money I would imagine EA would sell but it would have to be IP value PLUS futures, futures depending on how long they speculate UO to last.

    So some quick math:

    100,000 subs * 14.99 (lets not argue on sub numbers aye?)

    1,499,000 incoming per month . Add some of the EA store items lets call it an even 1.75 mil.

    Monthly operational costs? Pft I have No clue so lets be generous and say they have 25 employees full time avg salary 45k a year. Thats 100k a month. Add in some bandwidth and server upkeep yada yada make it 500k a month total overhead.

    So thats 1.25 mil a month profit - 15 mil a year.

    Lets suppose they speculate 5 more years with some decline in subs. Lets sey 50 mil over the next 5.

    So that 50 mil + IP value AND I didnt even consider the Asian market.

    Its gonna me a tough purchase unless you get it just before they shut it down.
     
  17. Nicely plausible construct there arcus ....
    *shrugs*

    I will point out two key aspects you skipped.
    >WHOM< is buying it.
    IT isn't/hasn't been >offered for sale< ...
    Its gonna be Tough to be certain that it will be for sale ... after it has shut down. Because:
    It will need to be Offered for sale, and whoever buying it is gonna need the monies available(on hand) ...

    It is also >unknown< as to whether or not, the "smart" brother Robert, managed to put a "first option/claim" on the IP @ price.
    Interview: The Garriott Brothers


    :gee:
     
  18. Arcus

    Arcus Grand Poobah
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    So you are saying my 100k includes the Asian markets? If there is any verifiable proof that 100k is total worldwide subs I'd like to see it. As I said and you ignored "lets not argue on sub numbers aye?" .
     
  19. oh my goodness ... my fault would be in assuming that
    UO Subscriptions Means ALL UO subscriptions that are considered when talking about ALL subscriptions that pay money into UO.

    :twak:
     
  20. 60k is a known and accepted >assumption< for dealing with UO total subscriptions.
    This thread >current sub topic< is (I assume) about buying the TOTAL IP of UO from EA ...

    doh!
     
  21. Cloak&Dagger

    Cloak&Dagger Guest

    It does not have to be "offered for sale" Unless there is some sort of first option clause. Anyone can go to EA board or shareholders with an offer to buy UO, the problem is UO is not in any danger of being not profitable, so it would have to be a VERY lucrative deal for EA to accept it.

    As for the sub numbers, Draconi's post was using a site that is speculating the numbers based on the decline it saw in active users, and users of its site claiming to play the game. I would assume by the time the numbers started to drop there was no public information about the Sub numbers or I would assume that they used the decline in the public file to predict what it is at now.

    Now consider all of this and you have to consider that most Asian people won't be using their site at all, they would not have been in any of the public data, and short of going to ever Asian shard and running around for days at a time counting the people you see, there is no way to tell what, if any, decline is occurring there. Not going to argue with the sub numbers, since I think 100k is a pretty good ballpark for all of uo...but if you take the information provided into account, then maybe 100k is a low number.
     
  22. *face palm*
    It is tougher to "buy the UO IP" if it has not been Offered for sale.
    Purchase OF the IP necessarily means ALL of the IP and the benefits derived from.

    Or were you assuming that a thing such as: UO IP, Oriental version, US version, Oce version(semi retired), European version etc. ... exists?
    check your assumptions.

    It is NOT likely that one can "sell" the idea that "buying" the UO IP: is all the sweeter because there Maybe some "oriental" pile of gold to be had.

    IF there is some nonexistant oriental pile of gold ... dum dum dee doh!
    EA Knows about it and will get compensation According to the size and nature of it.
    :next:
     
  23. Trebr Drab

    Trebr Drab Guest

    No, that site used publicly stated information, then "inside" information when the public notices were stopped. That's why the points eventually stopped when he lost his contacts inside. The guy who started it and ran it for years made every effort to be as accurate as possible, and had a page that explained all this where he admitted that it was feasible, though not likely, that his inside information wasn't accurate. But he sold it to a guild web site who tried to keep it going when he gave up, because he could no longer get information regularly enough to maintain it. Neither could they, evidently.
     
  24. Trebr Drab

    Trebr Drab Guest

    And folks, lets stop arguing over the possibility of anyone buying UO. EA buys things, they don't sell. The rights to the UO IP has value even if UO itself folds. And EA does not sell these things, they collect them.
     
  25. Cloak&Dagger

    Cloak&Dagger Guest

    Yea but that's what I said, it has long been "assumed" information. Did not say it always was.

    And I never said it would be easy to buy UO fayled, read what I said again. I simply stated it is possible to offer for it, and possible for ea to accept, I never mentioned the chances in any type of detail.

    I also never said there were differing versions of UO, and I never said EA does not know about it. I did however say that an outside source currently has no way to know the information, unless something has changed recently and they have a new person to get information from. So really you did not say anything based on what I said and yet you quoted me.

    I do agree with Trebr though, the likely-hood of EA selling an IP is about as good of a chance as pluto crashing into the moon this hour.
     
  26. You apparently have lost track of the conversation.

    Your "guesstimate" of UOs population of subscribers IS high.
    Draconi's "guesstimate" of 60k is most likely to be the most fair, accurate, based on actual knowledge than: yours of your admittedly questionable source.
    I base that on logic of proximity and access. Feel free to champion your "guesstimate" as you wish.

    If indeed you agree with trebr's likelihood of sale :twak: why didn't you back out before my high horse trampled your feelings?