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Getting frustrated ... smelting Agapite

Discussion in 'UHall' started by Guest, Feb 29, 2008.

  1. Guest

    Guest Guest

    Can anyone explain why I have almost twice as high a fail rate at smelting Agapite as I do Valorite?? Do I just have terrible RNG luck or what? Not that I don't like Valorite, and all, but I NEED Agapite for some BODs and I fail 50% on smelting! I am ending up with more Val than Ag, even tho I am hitting twice as many Ag veins ...

    My mining is 103.x with gloves on ...
     
  2. Bad luck.

    Get +5 gloves to replace your +3 gloves and smelt the agapite in piles of 20 or something, rather than large stacks all at once.
     
  3. Gotta be a bad run on the RNG. I've smelted a lot of Agapite over the past few days and have been doing pretty good with it.

    Definitely get +5 gloves to replace the ones you're using, and smelt them one at a time. Makes for much fewer lost.
     
  4. Guest

    Guest Guest

    Thanks guys. Actually, those ARE +5 gloves ... I dont have the patience to "train" skills, so I do the things the character was built to do and gain that way.
     
  5. Mining FAQ('05 ... probably still applies)
    Lets assume that you actually do have real skill points to be gained. Mining skill gains from two activities: actual mining and smelting ore to ingots. Both activities are difficulty based, which means that: 1) they will get more difficult for higher ore colors and 2) the chance to gain skill increases with the difficulty of the task. To make maximum use of this effect you should always concentrate as much as you can on your higest two ore colors (obviously only applicable after reaching shadow ore mining level). When you smelt your ore and you are still training your mining skill you should definitely use the 1-by-1 smelting method (Described in the Smelting Section).

    The truth is there is not really a sure fire / fastest method to gain mining. It is a skill that can not be 8x8'd, it is difficulty based so moving around doesn't really help, BUT you have to move around as the Ore in different spots runs out!!!

    Mining gains realatively steady through regular play. If you really want to maximize your skill gain potential, then concentrate on the two highest Ore colors you can mine as described above.

    Note: Steady does not mean fast, but it is faster than GGS (Guarantied Gain System)!
     
  6. Ezekiel Zane

    Ezekiel Zane Grand Inquisitor
    Stratics Veteran Stratics Legend

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    I smelt like this

    Iron ore - Bronze smelt the whole pile
    Golden ore smelt 12
    Agapite ore smelt 8
    Verite smelt 4
    Valorite smelt 4

    I have pretty good ingot return with those ratios.
     
  7. <blockquote><hr>

    I smelt like this

    Iron ore - Bronze smelt the whole pile
    Golden ore smelt 12
    Agapite ore smelt 8
    Verite smelt 4
    Valorite smelt 4

    I have pretty good ingot return with those ratios.

    [/ QUOTE ]

    I work with piles of 8 for gold and above. 8 cuts down of shuffling ore.

    Never do odd piles unless they are the small half ingot ones. the other sizes round up on your losses - smelt 9 and fail and you end up with 4.
     
  8. Guest

    Guest Guest

    I have to agree with you on this. I've always noticed that I smelt agapite worse than verite (very rarely fail with that even) and valorite. It never made sense so I'm glad to hear someone else has this "problem".
     
  9. Hunters' Moon

    Hunters' Moon Grand Inquisitor
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    Hey AilishD what shard are you on? If you are on Cats I have a +5 gloves for you
     
  10. Olahorand

    Olahorand Slightly Crazed
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    <blockquote><hr>

    I have to agree with you on this. I've always noticed that I smelt agapite worse than verite (very rarely fail with that even) and valorite. It never made sense so I'm glad to hear someone else has this "problem".

    [/ QUOTE ]
    even more worse, if you fail smelting with 105 mining on a stack of gold ore.
    Used to be you never fail on gold at this level, and later some calculation changed - maybe the +5 doesnt play a real role any more in calculation of success quote?
     
  11. <blockquote><hr>

    <blockquote><hr>

    I have to agree with you on this. I've always noticed that I smelt agapite worse than verite (very rarely fail with that even) and valorite. It never made sense so I'm glad to hear someone else has this "problem".

    [/ QUOTE ]
    even more worse, if you fail smelting with 105 mining on a stack of gold ore.
    Used to be you never fail on gold at this level, and later some calculation changed - maybe the +5 doesnt play a real role any more in calculation of success quote?

    [/ QUOTE ]

    Glad it isn't just me that's noticed this. Used to never fail on Gold, and it seems it's a fairly recent change.
     
  12. Noticed the same. Gold fails alot. Max skill and +5 gloves. Elven miner on Europa.
     
  13. <blockquote><hr>

    <blockquote><hr>

    I have to agree with you on this. I've always noticed that I smelt agapite worse than verite (very rarely fail with that even) and valorite. It never made sense so I'm glad to hear someone else has this "problem".

    [/ QUOTE ]
    even more worse, if you fail smelting with 105 mining on a stack of gold ore.
    Used to be you never fail on gold at this level, and later some calculation changed - maybe the +5 doesnt play a real role any more in calculation of success quote?

    [/ QUOTE ]

    At one point you got double from the gloves (or at least some did). We got the late on Siege so I don't remember when that happened or when it got fixed. At 110 mining you don't fail on gold.
     
  14. fred252

    fred252 Guest

    110 mining? [​IMG]
     
  15. Guest

    Guest Guest

    *keeps waiting for mining powerscrolls* [​IMG]

    (weird ... wearing +5 gloves, picking up a Jacob's Pickaxe drops mining from 105 to 100)
     
  16. I always smelt high end piles of ore like this.

    Get one large or two small in your pack, smelt, if you fail do it again. Wait till you fail 3 times in a row, when you do, hit the big pile on the 4th try.

    It usually will smelt all of it.
     
  17. Olahorand

    Olahorand Slightly Crazed
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    <blockquote><hr>

    <blockquote><hr>

    <blockquote><hr>

    I have to agree with you on this. I've always noticed that I smelt agapite worse than verite (very rarely fail with that even) and valorite. It never made sense so I'm glad to hear someone else has this "problem".

    [/ QUOTE ]
    even more worse, if you fail smelting with 105 mining on a stack of gold ore.
    Used to be you never fail on gold at this level, and later some calculation changed - maybe the +5 doesnt play a real role any more in calculation of success quote?

    [/ QUOTE ]

    At one point you got double from the gloves (or at least some did). We got the late on Siege so I don't remember when that happened or when it got fixed. At 110 mining you don't fail on gold.

    [/ QUOTE ]

    That bug, which brought mining to 110 or 115 on some characters, did avoid my miners completly. So I can only say, it had nothing to do with failing on smelting gold at 105 from a certain time.

    *Salute*
    Olahorand
     
  18. Guest

    Guest Guest

    i always smelt agpite up to valorite 1 small pile of ore at a time. i cant stand loosing half my ore in one failed attempt.
     
  19. Guest

    Guest Guest

    granted it sucks smelting 1 at a time but i usually always end up with more ingots that way then if i smelted them all in 1 big pile
     
  20. Guest

    Guest Guest

    Ailish is on Napa.

    With the Randomized Resources change, they really need to make it to where you never fail on smelting anymore.
     
  21. Cygnas

    Cygnas Guest

    <blockquote><hr>

    i always smelt agpite up to valorite 1 small pile of ore at a time. i cant stand loosing half my ore in one failed attempt.

    [/ QUOTE ]

    Statistically, this will yield the highest returns over time, smelting one ore at a time. But, BOY is that ever boring!
     
  22. Lord Kotan

    Lord Kotan Slightly Crazed
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    I have noticed the same thing... aggy and vertie I fail a LOT.. I haven't failed yet on val. Even with the +5 gloves, aggy seems to fail 50%.. vertie seems to fail about 70%
     
  23. Guest

    Guest Guest

    <blockquote><hr>

    Ailish is on Napa.

    With the Randomized Resources change, they really need to make it to where you never fail on smelting anymore.

    [/ QUOTE ]

    I disagree. There needs to be a little challange in smelting, but it does need a tad of tweeking on it. [​IMG]
     
  24. Guest

    Guest Guest

    I too agree with you about extra difficulty in smelting agapite. I have been mining and smelting for years and have noticed this over a long time. My miners are GM and always wear +5 gloves. Most are elves now, but before elves existed, my characters had the same problem.
     
  25. Guest

    Guest Guest

    <blockquote><hr>

    Statistically, this will yield the highest returns over time, smelting one ore at a time.

    [/ QUOTE ]
    I keep reading this, but I don't see the numbers. Are the odds actually different for large vs small or for a stack vs a single ore? This folklore keeps setting off my superstition radar, as I haven't noticed a difference.

    Certainly a 50% of success 1-by-1 vs giant-stack-a-time would statistically produce the same output over the long term.
     
  26. Setnaffa

    Setnaffa Certifiable
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    Shouldn't this be in the Mining Forum?
     
  27. Something doesn't seem right about that math....
     
  28. Guest

    Guest Guest

    I had the same issue ... with Verite. I mine with a couple packies, then zip home with the ore when they're full (large ore only) ... dump ore in a secure and go back for more mining.

    What I was doing was putting about 20-25 large on my miner and smelting. I'd get a lot of failures - verite especially. What I have started doing ... smelt right from the secure - it's next to the forge/anvil. Double-click the stack of 30 or so Agapite (or whatever) and target the forge ... the heck with splitting it down.

    Failures have dropped immensely. I have failed once each on Bronze, Gold, Valorite and Copper - for over 4000+ ingots total of all colors.
     
  29. After reading your post, T-Amon, and one on the Tamer's forum about the possibility that stats affect taming success, I'm starting to really wonder if stats are somehow being factored into success rates for some of the non-fighting skills.

    Do you think it's possible that if you're smelting out of a container you may do better because you're not overloaded and therefore your character isn't in any kind of "distress"? It might be interesting to mess around with this on Test Center and see if different stat settings affect smelting success, or if smelting while overloaded causes a problem. (I know it will make the ingots fall on the ground and if you're smelting on a fire beetle as you walk along or as you recall from spot to spot, you might not notice the ingots you've dropped.)
     
  30. I have always smelted Agaprite and above one at a time. I have since added Golden to the list, since it became so iffy on smelting. It does take longer to smelt but I only lose 1 ingot (for full ore) at a time if I fail.
     
  31. Guest

    Guest Guest

    Wow! Good point and it may well be true. My miner is maxxed on STR at 125 and unless I drop the ingots into the chest where I want them, I'd most definitely go near/over carry ability (537 stone).

    Looks like some work on TC. Here I was thinking a bad few passes with the RNG in all this.
     
  32. Basara

    Basara UO Forum Moderator
    Moderator Professional Wiki Moderator Stratics Veteran Stratics Legend Campaign Supporter

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    Theo, you can disagree all you want, but you'll still be wrong.

    First of all, the UO Pseudo-random Number Generator is not a "fair" (in statistical terms) number generator. This is shown by simply crafting a few thousand items and looking at the evidence. For example, the chance of crafting 10 normal items in a row at 90%+ exceptional should be astronomical, something that happens maybe once a year to a person, but I get it over once a week. I've had the same sort of streak happen with the number generator, producing 10 exceptional items in a row at 10% chance of exceptional.

    You graph this out, you get something that has nothing remotely resembling a (statistically) normal curve's standard deviation. This is especially true when you consider each failure is an automatic 50% loss. This isn't a heads or tails proposition; Order DOES matter, for results. On an experiment where one is trying for at least 1 heads out of 3 tries, the experiment doesn't stop if one head is gained, nor does it treat a failure on the first, and success on the second as only "Half a head". I'm oversimplifying my argument a bit, but the math involved is not the basic Statistics &amp; probability type stuff one learns in a few weeks of High School Advanced Math, but more in line with stuff from second-term college Statistics courses.

    So, as someone with a background in math (was a math teaching major - completed all my math classes but the senior level ones, before my health failed), I can confidently say that based on the faults in the UO system of generation "random" number, all arguments trying to use normal distributions to define smelting rates being the same over time, regardless of method, are bunk.


    Also, because of that wild variablilty within the system (failing 5 times in a row on something with a 90% success chance shouldn't be happening weekly on a miner with only 1000 experiments/smelts a week), the "Large Sample Sizes" needed for a fair set of experiments are on a scale normally seen only by script mining operations like the ones whose houses are burning. The abnormal curve the flawed RNG is producing requires absurdly large samples, especially compared to the number of experiments in each, for the math to work out.

    Smelting in smaller groups of ore guarantees that one won't get the maximum return, but at the same token, it makes it much more likely for the results to resemble a point along a normal distribution, and all but eliminates the flawed RNG's tendency to give you less than 6.25% of your ore that the numbers say you should get 100% of 90% of the time.

    If anything, the math behind the full expression of the system more resembles the math determining how much retail sales it takes at a set profit margin to cover the losses of the wholesale value of an item that was destroyed or stolen - but even that is nowhere near as complicated as trying to make sense of the random number distribution of UO.