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[Discussion] How rare, *really*, is that gift box?

Discussion in 'UO Rares Collector' started by BrianFreud, Jun 14, 2015.

  1. BrianFreud

    BrianFreud Lead Wiki Mod & Doer of Crazy Things
    Professional Wiki Editor Wiki Moderator Campaign Supporter

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    Now that I've finally managed to get 95% of my 2013 and 2014 gift boxes home and sorted out, I figured I'd finally try to answer "how rare is it" for these boxes. :)

    The number of boxes I collected in each year should be sufficient enough to eliminate just bad luck. Also, it's probably worth noting that these boxes aren't dyable, so whatever color you got, that's what it still is.

    I've run the numbers separately and both years combined. Based on these counts, it looks like the RNG was far less streaky in 2013 than in 2014. In any case, this does show that those boxes we assumed were the rare ones really are the rarest, followed by hues 76, 15, 36, 37, 43, and 92.

    I've hidden most of the data with spoiler tags, since each table has 109 lines. :p


    2013 gift boxes
    Sorted by hue
    Code:
    Hue    Count    Percentage of total
    0    46    3.35%
    2    11    0.80%
    3    12    0.87%
    4    15    1.09%
    5    8    0.58%
    6    8    0.58%
    7    17    1.24%
    8    14    1.02%
    9    16    1.17%
    10    12    0.87%
    11    12    0.87%
    12    13    0.95%
    13    10    0.73%
    14    10    0.73%
    15    8    0.58%
    16    15    1.09%
    17    15    1.09%
    18    11    0.80%
    19    14    1.02%
    20    12    0.87%
    21    11    0.80%
    22    11    0.80%
    23    12    0.87%
    24    13    0.95%
    25    14    1.02%
    26    11    0.80%
    27    17    1.24%
    28    13    0.95%
    29    17    1.24%
    30    15    1.09%
    31    22    1.60%
    32    13    0.95%
    33    11    0.80%
    34    13    0.95%
    35    11    0.80%
    36    9    0.66%
    37    6    0.44%
    38    15    1.09%
    39    14    1.02%
    40    15    1.09%
    41    15    1.09%
    42    14    1.02%
    43    10    0.73%
    44    21    1.53%
    45    13    0.95%
    46    15    1.09%
    47    15    1.09%
    48    12    0.87%
    49    12    0.87%
    50    9    0.66%
    51    16    1.17%
    52    10    0.73%
    53    18    1.31%
    54    16    1.17%
    55    23    1.68%
    56    13    0.95%
    57    8    0.58%
    58    18    1.31%
    59    18    1.31%
    60    15    1.09%
    61    18    1.31%
    62    7    0.51%
    63    9    0.66%
    64    8    0.58%
    65    10    0.73%
    66    12    0.87%
    67    9    0.66%
    68    18    1.31%
    69    15    1.09%
    70    10    0.73%
    71    15    1.09%
    72    13    0.95%
    73    7    0.51%
    74    22    1.60%
    75    11    0.80%
    76    6    0.44%
    77    12    0.87%
    78    21    1.53%
    79    14    1.02%
    80    18    1.31%
    81    6    0.44%
    82    12    0.87%
    83    18    1.31%
    83    12    0.87%
    85    13    0.95%
    86    15    1.09%
    87    18    1.31%
    88    7    0.51%
    89    11    0.80%
    90    16    1.17%
    91    12    0.87%
    92    11    0.80%
    93    21    1.53%
    94    9    0.66%
    95    13    0.95%
    96    15    1.09%
    97    9    0.66%
    98    9    0.66%
    99    9    0.66%
    100    9    0.66%
    101    14    1.02%
    1918    4    0.29%
    2075    6    0.44%
    2640    1    0.07%
    2707    2    0.15%
    2715    1    0.07%
    2722    3    0.22%
    2726    5    0.36%
    2728    3    0.22%
    Total    1372  
    

    =================================================

    2014 gift boxes
    Sorted by hue
    Code:
    Hue    Count    Percentage of total
    0    11    1.27%
    2    4    0.46%
    3    4    0.46%
    4    4    0.46%
    5    7    0.81%
    6    9    1.04%
    7    8    0.93%
    8    7    0.81%
    9    12    1.39%
    10    8    0.93%
    11    8    0.93%
    12    16    1.85%
    13    9    1.04%
    14    11    1.27%
    15    5    0.58%
    16    11    1.27%
    17    10    1.16%
    18    4    0.46%
    19    5    0.58%
    20    7    0.81%
    21    5    0.58%
    22    4    0.46%
    23    5    0.58%
    24    8    0.93%
    25    6    0.70%
    26    8    0.93%
    27    6    0.70%
    28    14    1.62%
    29    12    1.39%
    30    8    0.93%
    31    15    1.74%
    32    4    0.46%
    33    7    0.81%
    34    7    0.81%
    35    7    0.81%
    36    4    0.46%
    37    7    0.81%
    38    8    0.93%
    39    8    0.93%
    40    8    0.93%
    41    10    1.16%
    42    14    1.62%
    43    4    0.46%
    44    9    1.04%
    45    7    0.81%
    46    12    1.39%
    47    8    0.93%
    48    9    1.04%
    49    4    0.46%
    50    6    0.70%
    51    10    1.16%
    52    10    1.16%
    53    7    0.81%
    54    5    0.58%
    55    13    1.51%
    56    5    0.58%
    57    12    1.39%
    58    7    0.81%
    59    6    0.70%
    60    10    1.16%
    61    8    0.93%
    62    13    1.51%
    63    7    0.81%
    64    8    0.93%
    65    10    1.16%
    66    9    1.04%
    67    7    0.81%
    68    9    1.04%
    69    10    1.16%
    70    9    1.04%
    71    9    1.04%
    72    6    0.70%
    73    13    1.51%
    74    14    1.62%
    75    13    1.51%
    76    5    0.58%
    77    6    0.70%
    78    4    0.46%
    79    8    0.93%
    80    8    0.93%
    81    9    1.04%
    82    14    1.62%
    83    9    1.04%
    84    8    0.93%
    85    11    1.27%
    86    10    1.16%
    87    8    0.93%
    88    9    1.04%
    89    10    1.16%
    90    6    0.70%
    91    4    0.46%
    92    3    0.35%
    93    10    1.16%
    94    10    1.16%
    95    8    0.93%
    96    9    1.04%
    97    10    1.16%
    98    8    0.93%
    99    10    1.16%
    100    10    1.16%
    101    6    0.70%
    1918    4    0.46%
    2075    3    0.35%
    2640    2    0.23%
    2707    2    0.23%
    2715    1    0.12%
    2722    3    0.35%
    2726    4    0.46%
    2728    7    0.81%
    Total    863  
    

    =================================================

    Combined 2013 and 2014 gift boxes
    Sorted by hue
    Code:
    Hue    Count    Percentage of total
    0    57    2.55%
    2    15    0.67%
    3    16    0.72%
    4    19    0.85%
    5    15    0.67%
    6    17    0.76%
    7    25    1.12%
    8    21    0.94%
    9    28    1.25%
    10    20    0.89%
    11    20    0.89%
    12    29    1.30%
    13    19    0.85%
    14    21    0.94%
    15    13    0.58%
    16    26    1.16%
    17    25    1.12%
    18    15    0.67%
    19    19    0.85%
    20    19    0.85%
    21    16    0.72%
    22    15    0.67%
    23    17    0.76%
    24    21    0.94%
    25    20    0.89%
    26    19    0.85%
    27    23    1.03%
    28    27    1.21%
    29    29    1.30%
    30    23    1.03%
    31    37    1.66%
    32    17    0.76%
    33    18    0.81%
    34    20    0.89%
    35    18    0.81%
    36    13    0.58%
    37    13    0.58%
    38    23    1.03%
    39    22    0.98%
    40    23    1.03%
    41    25    1.12%
    42    28    1.25%
    43    14    0.63%
    44    30    1.34%
    45    20    0.89%
    46    27    1.21%
    47    23    1.03%
    48    21    0.94%
    49    16    0.72%
    50    15    0.67%
    51    26    1.16%
    52    20    0.89%
    53    25    1.12%
    54    21    0.94%
    55    36    1.61%
    56    18    0.81%
    57    20    0.89%
    58    25    1.12%
    59    24    1.07%
    60    25    1.12%
    61    26    1.16%
    62    20    0.89%
    63    16    0.72%
    64    16    0.72%
    65    20    0.89%
    66    21    0.94%
    67    16    0.72%
    68    27    1.21%
    69    25    1.12%
    70    19    0.85%
    71    24    1.07%
    72    19    0.85%
    73    20    0.89%
    74    36    1.61%
    75    24    1.07%
    76    11    0.49%
    77    18    0.81%
    78    25    1.12%
    79    22    0.98%
    80    26    1.16%
    81    15    0.67%
    82    26    1.16%
    83    27    1.21%
    84    20    0.89%
    85    24    1.07%
    86    25    1.12%
    87    26    1.16%
    88    16    0.72%
    89    21    0.94%
    90    22    0.98%
    91    16    0.72%
    92    14    0.63%
    93    31    1.39%
    94    19    0.85%
    95    21    0.94%
    96    24    1.07%
    97    19    0.85%
    98    17    0.76%
    99    19    0.85%
    100    19    0.85%
    101    20    0.89%
    1918    8    0.36%
    2075    9    0.40%
    2640    3    0.13%
    2707    4    0.18%
    2715    2    0.09%
    2722    6    0.27%
    2726    9    0.40%
    2728    10    0.45%
    Total    2235  
    

    =================================================

    2013 gift boxes
    Sorted by percentage of total
    Code:
    Hue    Count    Percentage of total
    2640    1    0.07%
    2715    1    0.07%
    2707    2    0.15%
    2722    3    0.22%
    2728    3    0.22%
    1918    4    0.29%
    2726    5    0.36%
    37    6    0.44%
    76    6    0.44%
    81    6    0.44%
    2075    6    0.44%
    62    7    0.51%
    73    7    0.51%
    88    7    0.51%
    5    8    0.58%
    6    8    0.58%
    15    8    0.58%
    57    8    0.58%
    64    8    0.58%
    36    9    0.66%
    50    9    0.66%
    63    9    0.66%
    67    9    0.66%
    94    9    0.66%
    97    9    0.66%
    98    9    0.66%
    99    9    0.66%
    100    9    0.66%
    13    10    0.73%
    14    10    0.73%
    43    10    0.73%
    52    10    0.73%
    65    10    0.73%
    70    10    0.73%
    2    11    0.80%
    18    11    0.80%
    21    11    0.80%
    22    11    0.80%
    26    11    0.80%
    33    11    0.80%
    35    11    0.80%
    75    11    0.80%
    89    11    0.80%
    92    11    0.80%
    3    12    0.87%
    10    12    0.87%
    11    12    0.87%
    20    12    0.87%
    23    12    0.87%
    48    12    0.87%
    49    12    0.87%
    66    12    0.87%
    77    12    0.87%
    82    12    0.87%
    83    12    0.87%
    91    12    0.87%
    12    13    0.95%
    24    13    0.95%
    28    13    0.95%
    32    13    0.95%
    34    13    0.95%
    45    13    0.95%
    56    13    0.95%
    72    13    0.95%
    85    13    0.95%
    95    13    0.95%
    8    14    1.02%
    19    14    1.02%
    25    14    1.02%
    39    14    1.02%
    42    14    1.02%
    79    14    1.02%
    101    14    1.02%
    4    15    1.09%
    16    15    1.09%
    17    15    1.09%
    30    15    1.09%
    38    15    1.09%
    40    15    1.09%
    41    15    1.09%
    46    15    1.09%
    47    15    1.09%
    60    15    1.09%
    69    15    1.09%
    71    15    1.09%
    86    15    1.09%
    96    15    1.09%
    9    16    1.17%
    51    16    1.17%
    54    16    1.17%
    90    16    1.17%
    7    17    1.24%
    27    17    1.24%
    29    17    1.24%
    53    18    1.31%
    58    18    1.31%
    59    18    1.31%
    61    18    1.31%
    68    18    1.31%
    80    18    1.31%
    83    18    1.31%
    87    18    1.31%
    44    21    1.53%
    78    21    1.53%
    93    21    1.53%
    31    22    1.60%
    74    22    1.60%
    55    23    1.68%
    0    46    3.35%
    Total    1372      
    

    =================================================

    2014 gift boxes
    Sorted by percentage of total
    Code:
    Hue    Count    Percentage of total
    2715    1    0.12%
    2640    2    0.23%
    2707    2    0.23%
    92    3    0.35%
    2075    3    0.35%
    2722    3    0.35%
    2    4    0.46%
    3    4    0.46%
    4    4    0.46%
    18    4    0.46%
    22    4    0.46%
    32    4    0.46%
    36    4    0.46%
    43    4    0.46%
    49    4    0.46%
    78    4    0.46%
    91    4    0.46%
    1918    4    0.46%
    2726    4    0.46%
    15    5    0.58%
    19    5    0.58%
    21    5    0.58%
    23    5    0.58%
    54    5    0.58%
    56    5    0.58%
    76    5    0.58%
    25    6    0.70%
    27    6    0.70%
    50    6    0.70%
    59    6    0.70%
    72    6    0.70%
    77    6    0.70%
    90    6    0.70%
    101    6    0.70%
    5    7    0.81%
    8    7    0.81%
    20    7    0.81%
    33    7    0.81%
    34    7    0.81%
    35    7    0.81%
    37    7    0.81%
    45    7    0.81%
    53    7    0.81%
    58    7    0.81%
    63    7    0.81%
    67    7    0.81%
    2728    7    0.81%
    7    8    0.93%
    10    8    0.93%
    11    8    0.93%
    24    8    0.93%
    26    8    0.93%
    30    8    0.93%
    38    8    0.93%
    39    8    0.93%
    40    8    0.93%
    47    8    0.93%
    61    8    0.93%
    64    8    0.93%
    79    8    0.93%
    80    8    0.93%
    84    8    0.93%
    87    8    0.93%
    95    8    0.93%
    98    8    0.93%
    6    9    1.04%
    13    9    1.04%
    44    9    1.04%
    48    9    1.04%
    66    9    1.04%
    68    9    1.04%
    70    9    1.04%
    71    9    1.04%
    81    9    1.04%
    83    9    1.04%
    88    9    1.04%
    96    9    1.04%
    17    10    1.16%
    41    10    1.16%
    51    10    1.16%
    52    10    1.16%
    60    10    1.16%
    65    10    1.16%
    69    10    1.16%
    86    10    1.16%
    89    10    1.16%
    93    10    1.16%
    94    10    1.16%
    97    10    1.16%
    99    10    1.16%
    100    10    1.16%
    0    11    1.27%
    14    11    1.27%
    16    11    1.27%
    85    11    1.27%
    9    12    1.39%
    29    12    1.39%
    46    12    1.39%
    57    12    1.39%
    55    13    1.51%
    62    13    1.51%
    73    13    1.51%
    75    13    1.51%
    28    14    1.62%
    42    14    1.62%
    74    14    1.62%
    82    14    1.62%
    31    15    1.74%
    12    16    1.85%
    Total    863  
    

    =================================================

    Combined 2013 and 2014 gift boxes
    Sorted by percentage of total
    Code:
    Hue    Count    Percentage of total
    2715    2    0.09%
    2640    3    0.13%
    2707    4    0.18%
    2722    6    0.27%
    1918    8    0.36%
    2075    9    0.40%
    2726    9    0.40%
    2728    10    0.45%
    76    11    0.49%
    15    13    0.58%
    36    13    0.58%
    37    13    0.58%
    43    14    0.63%
    92    14    0.63%
    2    15    0.67%
    5    15    0.67%
    18    15    0.67%
    22    15    0.67%
    50    15    0.67%
    81    15    0.67%
    3    16    0.72%
    21    16    0.72%
    49    16    0.72%
    63    16    0.72%
    64    16    0.72%
    67    16    0.72%
    88    16    0.72%
    91    16    0.72%
    6    17    0.76%
    23    17    0.76%
    32    17    0.76%
    98    17    0.76%
    33    18    0.81%
    35    18    0.81%
    56    18    0.81%
    77    18    0.81%
    4    19    0.85%
    13    19    0.85%
    19    19    0.85%
    20    19    0.85%
    26    19    0.85%
    70    19    0.85%
    72    19    0.85%
    94    19    0.85%
    97    19    0.85%
    99    19    0.85%
    100    19    0.85%
    10    20    0.89%
    11    20    0.89%
    25    20    0.89%
    34    20    0.89%
    45    20    0.89%
    52    20    0.89%
    57    20    0.89%
    62    20    0.89%
    65    20    0.89%
    73    20    0.89%
    84    20    0.89%
    101    20    0.89%
    8    21    0.94%
    14    21    0.94%
    24    21    0.94%
    48    21    0.94%
    54    21    0.94%
    66    21    0.94%
    89    21    0.94%
    95    21    0.94%
    39    22    0.98%
    79    22    0.98%
    90    22    0.98%
    27    23    1.03%
    30    23    1.03%
    38    23    1.03%
    40    23    1.03%
    47    23    1.03%
    59    24    1.07%
    71    24    1.07%
    75    24    1.07%
    85    24    1.07%
    96    24    1.07%
    7    25    1.12%
    17    25    1.12%
    41    25    1.12%
    53    25    1.12%
    58    25    1.12%
    60    25    1.12%
    69    25    1.12%
    78    25    1.12%
    86    25    1.12%
    16    26    1.16%
    51    26    1.16%
    61    26    1.16%
    80    26    1.16%
    82    26    1.16%
    87    26    1.16%
    28    27    1.21%
    46    27    1.21%
    68    27    1.21%
    83    27    1.21%
    9    28    1.25%
    42    28    1.25%
    12    29    1.30%
    29    29    1.30%
    44    30    1.34%
    93    31    1.39%
    55    36    1.61%
    74    36    1.61%
    31    37    1.66%
    0    57    2.55%
    Total    2235