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Magincia House Plot Lottery Ticket Sales Analysis

Discussion in 'UO Siege Perilous' started by Nakukak, Jun 20, 2011.

  1. Nakukak

    Nakukak Sage
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    Each of the 22 plots per facet were raffled in one of two ways: One Ticket Per User Account (“limited”), and Unlimited Tickets Per Customer (“unlimited”). 12 of the plots were limited lotteries, while the other 10 were unlimited. Limited-lottery tickets cost the player 10,000gp, and the unlimited-lottery tickets cost 2,000gp each.
    Here are some overall statistics for the lottery:
     Total Ticket Sales
    o Total ticket sales for Limited Lottery plots were 139,482 (1,394,820,000gp).
    o Total ticket sales for Unlimited Lottery plots were 23,710,748 (47,421,496,000gp).
    o The total amount of gold spent on lottery tickets was 48,816,316,000gp.
     Player Participation
    o 9,655 user accounts bought tickets for the lottery
    o 9,266 users bought tickets for Limited Lottery plots
    o 7,329 users bought tickets for Unlimited Lottery plots
    o 6,940 users bought tickets for both types of lotteries
     Winner Distribution
    o 833 unique user accounts won plots from the lottery
    o 1 user won 10 plots
    o 2 users won 7 plots each
    o 8 users won 6 plots each
    o 7 users won 5 plots each
    o 17 users won 4 plots each
    o 40 users won 3 plots each
    o 112 users won 2 plots each
    o The remaining 646 users won a single plot

    Shard Facet Plot Tickets Sold
    Siege Perilous Felucca C-2 108
    Siege Perilous Felucca C-3 105
    Siege Perilous Felucca E-1 95
    Siege Perilous Felucca E-2 96
    Siege Perilous Felucca E-3 97
    Siege Perilous Felucca E-4 95
    Siege Perilous Felucca E-5 97
    Siege Perilous Felucca E-6 103
    Siege Perilous Felucca E-7 102
    Siege Perilous Felucca N-1 102
    Siege Perilous Felucca N-2 95
    Siege Perilous Felucca N-3 108
    Siege Perilous Felucca Total 1203

    Plot Player Total Average Median Std Dev Max (Chance) Winner (Chance)
    C-1 59 3,456 58.6 5.0 187.56 1,000 28.9352% 100 2.8935%
    SE-1 80 7,550 94.4 6.0 232.53 1,300 17.2185% 500 6.6225%
    SE-2 67 2,270 33.9 4.0 94.82 544 23.9648% 544 23.9648%
    SE-3 65 2,850 43.8 5.0 108.65 598 20.9825% 598 20.9825%
    SE-4 49 2,789 56.9 4.0 284.89 2,000 71.7103% 2,000 71.7103%
    SW-1 67 4,254 63.5 5.0 207.19 1,500 35.2609% 300 7.0522%
    SW-2 65 1,426 21.9 4.0 48.89 300 21.0379% 200 14.0252%
    SW-3 53 1,375 25.9 4.0 56.61 300 21.8182% 100 7.2727%
    SW-4 51 1,340 26.3 4.0 66.67 400 29.8507% 400 29.8507%
    SW-5 68 2,305 33.9 5.0 87.15 500 21.6920% 400 17.3536%

    Shard Facet Players Total Average Median Std Dev
    Siege Perilous Felucca 624 29,615 47.5 5 1,868.59
     
  2. Nakukak

    Nakukak Sage
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    Your Welcome to analyze this.
    Additional Info:
    The total amount of gold spent on lottery tickets: 48,816,316,000 gp.
     
  3. RueTor

    RueTor Journeyman
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    Playing with the data at lunch (just for fun... not the UO gold portion)


    Other Posts:
    http://vboards.stratics.com/uo-developer-feed/244155-[uo-herald]-magincia-house-plot-lottery-ticket-sales-analysis.html

    http://vboards.stratics.com/uhall/2...house-plot-lottery-ticket-sales-analysis.html

    • Player Participation
    o 9,655 user accounts bought tickets for the lottery

    Conservative Estimate (depends if you even bought a ticket and/or use a 6 month subscription)
    9655 x $10/month = $96,550/month
    $96,550/month x 12 months/year = $1,158,600/year (EA store not included)

    • Player Participation (Siege)(part of the grand total above?)
    o ~100 user accounts bought tickets for the lottery


    Conservative Estimate (depends if you even bought a ticket and/or use a 6 month subscription)
    100 x $10/month = $1,000/month
    $1,000/month x 12 months/year = $12,000/year (EA store not included)
     
  4. Nakukak

    Nakukak Sage
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    Hurry Quick Delete it before EA Deletes Siege !
     
  5. SoulWeaver

    SoulWeaver King of The Bearded Ladies
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    Wish i was active at the sale I'd buy 100 mill in TICKETS!
     
  6. Czarina

    Czarina Slightly Crazed
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    ironicaly those that spent the most gold didnt even win one plot lol
     
  7. Nakukak

    Nakukak Sage
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    3 did get, and I would have also if I woke up in time :(
     
  8. Kas Althume

    Kas Althume Crazed Zealot
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    I placed a couple mil on one plot i wanted and didn't get it. I did not bid with 5 other accounts. I'm sure there are lots of others out there who didn't bother at all or placed bids with only 1 account. The calculations are fubar. :)
     
  9. Symma

    Symma Certifiable
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    Hehe i could have.

    Was tempted to put in a big ticket purchase but in the end couldn't be bothered lol
     
  10. Tjalle

    Tjalle Grand Inquisitor
    Professional Stratics Veteran Campaign Supporter Gilfane

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    I didn´t place any bids with any of my accounts. Not on Siege anyway...
     
  11. Czarina

    Czarina Slightly Crazed
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    i just put multiple bids in on the 10k plots i didnt bother with the unlimited bid ones
     
  12. AtlanticVlad

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    I dumped a TON of gold on all of them LOL only won won despite my % chance to win on at least 6 of them being 1/5 or better lol
     
  13. Raptor85

    Raptor85 Certifiable
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    so, you had a 1/5 chance on 6 plots and won one?

    .....

    hmmm.... (1/5)*6 = 1.2 (and since you can't have .2 of a plot, that's 1)

    sounds like you paid just enough to have a good chance at getting one plot, and you got one, 2 or more would have been incredibly lucky at that rate. If you can dumped, say, the gold from half of those you bid on into the other ones, you may have actually had a better chance at winning 2.
     
  14. Guardian KX

    Guardian KX Lore Keeper

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    I didn't buy one single ticket.

    I won 0 plots. I dropped 0 houses and lost 0 extra lockdowns for the ability to have a guard zone in my house on SIEGE P. I spent 0 millions to achieve this.

    I feel I'm the winner. I did move my house to a open area I've wanted for a long time. Cost... 0 gold and 2 hours moving time. # of lockdowns lost - 0.

    I only go to Mag to see if theres anything worth buying. One thing I do like is how every faction person "off" dyes there hero and evil crap and doesn't say ANYTHING about it. Standard rule here folks is if its dyed in ANY way, don't purchase... 2nd thing to look for is durability, if its low its used and never know what the issue is, Buyer Beware. Another neat thing is all the different price differences for the same things; like a cursed tunic of fortune for 50k or 400k, only difference is 4 houses walking difference, or the kelp leggings 35k at one place and 150k at another, pet treats i sell for 1k - 5k and 10k on Mag vendors, someone bought out every free cream pie, there were tons on that vendor, prob to one guy greedily, thinking there worth millions like in Barneyland... SOOOOOO many price difference, sooooo many. Shop at every house before you purchase ANYTHING. Overall savings is well worth it. Brit Moongate, Yew Moongate, Zento, Minoc Moongate, Luna inside the walls, and many more places to shop if you wanna judge TRUE savings.
     
  15. Czarina

    Czarina Slightly Crazed
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    or you could just stop at my shop :thumbup:
     
  16. QueenZen

    QueenZen Always Present
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    :( BAH !!

    I spent gp on all the plots, buying 2-4 tickets on each of the cheaper plots, and using all 4 accts. to buy one ticket per acct. on the plots I wanted most, on 2 shards ! I WON ZERO !

    I had thought with ONLY 91 tickets purchased on N1-N3 felucca on Chesapeake that I *could* maybe at least win one of those. I didn't bother to buy any plots on the tram side there cuz everyone was buyin those lotto tickets. I didn't even buy the fel side ones there earlier on cuz if I want felucca BUY LOTTO tickets on, PLOTS HERE. :)
    But those 3 plots *the N ones* were the ones I had hoped to win MOST though ANYWHERE ! MEH ! NO winz there, no wins here.

    In the end though, I OWN N1 there and now N3 here. Thanks to many friends/ allies they bought N1 on Ches felucca for me, from a guy that won 4 New Magincia plots on Ches. whom was selling his feluccan wins, for $$$$$$$$$ of gp, so I have the winning *deed* for N1 THERE.
    I am still overwhelmed by them all doing that 'for me' there.
    THEN a tad later, over here...N3 became mine too, due to friends [here].

    For me I just wanted *fishin huts* and New Magincia to me, seemed perfect for em.

    But yeh, I didn't WIN one at all, but still feel like I somehow won anyhows and won maybe something MORE important, over all my years of playing UO.
    When ya got friends/allies that are willing to do so much, for ya, on 2 shards,
    just to try to get ya N plots, on New Magincia just to make your own lil pixel dream, of owning a fishing hut on New Magincia come true, when ya lost the gp and the lotto, says a lot more, to me, than actually winning the lotto, ever would say to me ! :)
     
  17. Lorddog

    Lorddog Crazed Zealot
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    I do not beleive this number.
    looking through their totals it seems 9655 is an average accross the limited lottery plots.
    problem is that there are 20 odd shards and people bought accross shards.
    i think you could easily reduce to 1/3 or 1/4 because of cross shard buys.
    its probably more like
    3000 x $10/month = $30,000/month
    but then there are many people who did not buy tickets.
    so you might be able to bump that number back up to 6000-10,000 paying users.

    we exclude the issue of 1 person using multiple accounts because they pay for those accounts.
    but 6000-10,000 paid accounts might = 5,000 on average individual people.