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Neither can live while the other survives.

Discussion in 'UHall' started by GarthGrey, Oct 4, 2008.

  1. GarthGrey

    GarthGrey Crazed Zealot
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    No, it's not a Harry Potter question. It's more or less, another "The Sky is Falling" posting, shamefully made by myself. I was watching G4 Xplay and they say that Warhammer already has some 500k sign ups/accounts. Before War, UO had a future because it was a money maker (albeit a small one) for EA, but Warhammer has the makings of a gigantic Cash Cow for EA. Why on earth would they continue to support a game (regardless how the UO diehards feel about it) with continuing dwindling subscriptions? Seriously, if you owned EA/Mythic, ask yourself why you would even need UO with it's maybe 100k subscribers, when at the pace it's going, Warhammer will have over a million before long?

    I love UO, always have, but come on, EA's not going to keep it going because "Oh golly gosh darn, we just love it so much!!!", are they?
     
  2. Gildar

    Gildar Babbling Loonie
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    As long as UO keeps making money, even if it's barely anything, EA has no reason to kill it.

    edit::
    Oh... and since both UO (KR) and WAR use the same client engine, having more programmers in the same building available to ask questions, get advice, etc means more productivity for both teams.
     
  3. GarthGrey

    GarthGrey Crazed Zealot
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    I disagree. The money lost closing UO would quickly be sucked up by Warhammer. A pitiful analogy I know, but why would I sell $100 worth of apples, and $200 worth of oranges, when I can sell $ 300 worth of oranges instead? My orange customers aren't going to stop buying from me because I don't sell apples any more.The absolute only reason to keep UO going would be nostalgic/sentimental reasons only.
     
  4. Dermott of LS

    Dermott of LS UOEC Modder
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    Gonna agree with Illandril. WAR being successful actually takes a bit of pressure off of UO. It's already been hinted a time or two that the KR/SA client devs have had access to some of WAR's client code as well as we at the Exchange in terms of ideas and code for UI customizations.

    WAR could end up freeing UO to be a pure cash cow... not a "do or die" type of game.

    I think WAR helps UO's stability of existence to be a nice niche game instead of a game trying to re-break into the upper echelon of MMOGs in terms of numbers.
     
  5. K'torr

    K'torr Guest

    It is more than a matter of making money, it has to make ENOUGH money. There is bound to be an unpublished cut off line. When the return on the investment falls below that line, the plug will be pulled. Would you spend , just to pick a number, $10m a year on a product, you only get a return of $10.1m?

    Make no mistake, UO is nothing but a product to EA. When they feel they aren't getting enough return, reguardless of how many subscriptions they have, UO is gone.
     
  6. Tina Small

    Tina Small Stratics Legend
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    How about this idea? They keep UO around as the place where they test new ideas for other games. Most of us that are still left are die-hard fanatics, so it will take some pretty major changes or screw-ups to make us mad enough to completely quit.
     
  7. RoycroftLS

    RoycroftLS Guest

    But it also means they would have no qualms about pulling everyone off UO and shifting them to Warhammer, since most everyone is already familiar with that game engine.
     
  8. GalenKnighthawke

    GalenKnighthawke Grand Poobah
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    Any business venture can be shut down at any time for any reason or for no reason at all.

    However, in terms of rationality, there is simply no rational reason to shut down UO. It makes money ("wildly profitable," see Link 1 below), it fills a niche that WHO is not going to fill.

    Quote from Mythic official Cal Crowner:

    (See Link 2 below)

    Sure, we could wake up tomorrow to find that UO's been shut down. Business is full of irrational decisions. (Look at Wall Street the last 7 to 10 years!)

    Shutting down UO could easily one day be one of them. Marc Jacobs could get constipated and pull the plug. Sure it's possible. And nothing would surprise me anymore.

    But, if everyone keeps a level head and keeps their eye on the bottom line, UO isn't going anywhere.

    -Galen's player

    LINKS:

    Link 1: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/warhammer-time

    Link 2: http://www.uoherald.com/news/news.php?newsid=347
     
  9. Uvtha

    Uvtha Grand Poobah
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    No it didnt, at least no more than it ever had. WAR had nothing to do with UO one way or another. Its not like if WAR hadn't been in development that UO would have got tons of money...it just would have been some other new MMO.

    People, we need to realize that UO is not a mega game, its not a modern game, it never will be. That doens't mean it cant be sucsessful (more sucsessful than it is now for sure) but it's a niche game.

    EA will ALWAYS put the big bucks in for new games, it only makes sense, but then again it makes no sense to take the money away from a game that IS making money, even if its not a lot, like UO.
     
  10. Dermott of LS

    Dermott of LS UOEC Modder
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    I agree that UO has become a niche game (if only because the current "success" model is the level/raid clone), but I disagree that it cannot be a modern game (although I do agree in the sense that there are certain people who do and will do everything they can to keep it from becoming a more modern game).
     
  11. Sir Kenga

    Sir Kenga Guest

    I still like UO.
     
  12. UltimaSword

    UltimaSword Guest

    UO can be upgraded and updated to diablo three style graphics or something along those lines. A big problem is the ancient coding. It would just take time, effort, and MONEY. Maybe more money than UO makes (probably)
     
  13. BbqLou

    BbqLou Visitor

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    I tried WAR, It won't last, it is horrible.


    "Why on earth would they continue to support a game (regardless how the UO diehards feel about it) with continuing dwindling subscriptions?"

    As long as they still make a profit off of UO, then they won't cancel it.
     
  14. Dermott of LS

    Dermott of LS UOEC Modder
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    UO can be upgraded and updated to diablo three style graphics or something along those lines. A big problem is the ancient coding. It would just take time, effort, and MONEY. Maybe more money than UO makes (probably)

    Which is the point behind the KR/SA client (to update the client both artistically and technologically, not specific to D3 graphics)... however, as I stated, there are people who would rather see such efforts fail regards of actual quality.

    Even if the SA client gets EVERYTHING right, there will still be people here claiming "The SA client sucks! I'm NEVER leaving 2d".
     
  15. pavel.vesely

    pavel.vesely Guest

    to GarthGrey: You are no businessman! Businessmen which do as you suggest quickly end up with no business.
     
  16. Gildar

    Gildar Babbling Loonie
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    Well...
    UO account + WAR account > WAR account, for those who play both
    UO account > no account, for those who aren't interested in WAR, and for those in Japan (who have no WAR option; it's just European and American)

    Familiarity with a game engine is not familiarity with a game. It can make learning the game much easier, but there's still a learning curve.
     
  17. kelmo

    kelmo Old and in the way
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    Folks, this is what we get. UO is what it is. We can't change it, because we will not let go of the past. Every attempt at change causes the cell mates to rattle the cages and bang the bars.

    UO is what it is. Look in the mirror and ask why.

    That was metaphorical and not directed at any individual, all of the individuals are innocent.
     
  18. K'torr

    K'torr Guest

    As do I. And until something I like more comes along, here is where I'll be.
     
  19. Nexus

    Nexus Site Support
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    Don't read too much into 500k subs. A lot of new MMO's that have been hyped in the media and on the web get a rapid rush of players then loose about half of them rather quickly.
     
  20. kelmo

    kelmo Old and in the way
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    Let's all hope Warhammer does well. Trust me.
     
  21. Vallend

    Vallend Sage
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    Lately I have been wondering if UO is not just a training ground for new Devs for Mythics other games? I mean hire them fresh let them work on UO for a while, master their skills by trial and error on UO, and then move them up to the higher profile games that Mythic has. Has UO became the minor leagues for MMORPGs?
     
  22. kelmo

    kelmo Old and in the way
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    If so, that has been the case for 11 years. *nods*
     
  23. Dermott of LS

    Dermott of LS UOEC Modder
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    Let's all hope Warhammer does well. Trust me.

    Gotta agree here. Mythic MMOGs doing well means UO does well. Mythic MMOGs doing poorly means to UO...
     
  24. kelmo

    kelmo Old and in the way
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    Dermott, oft times we find ourselves at odds. This thing we agree upon is important. We are brothers in a way. Long live UO as you play it.
     
  25. Dermott of LS

    Dermott of LS UOEC Modder
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    Indeed. And to you as well!
     
  26. SippyCup

    SippyCup Guest

    No fishing, no fun.
     
  27. Sunrise

    Sunrise Guest

    What? there is no fishing in war hammer? then im not going to play it :D

    As for UO. I like it. Been playing for to long. I like it :D
     
  28. Zalan

    Zalan Babbling Loonie
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    Think about this NCsoft doesen`t hardly make any money on Guild Wars anymore. However, its still around & yes it only has One Developer. All the other Developers are working on Guild Wars 2. However, it still has monthly updates.
     
  29. Wenchkin

    Wenchkin Babbling Loonie
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    It's much much too early to announce that WAR is going to be a success or failure. It's just out! Let's see how it's doing in a year before we predict the end of UO. If EA decide to nuke UO in the interim, then I'll play elsewhere. In all honesty WAR is a new kid with a lot of very strong competitors. EA will have to work their butts off to pull it off against those guys. Nothing is assured. I would imagine EA will need our profits to help balance the books for a wee bit longer.

    Wenchy
     
  30. Gildar

    Gildar Babbling Loonie
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    I don't think UO has to worry too much about other Mythic MMOGs doing poorly. I think we'll be better off if they do well, since the developers will be able to share resources, but I can't see UO going away even if everything else from Mythic fails.
     
  31. Ah
    If you had several million in the bank, would you throw it away because you won 25 million?

    Think about it.
     
  32. "Never put all of your eggs in one basket" is as true for corporate business as it is for old wives. A company can't survive if it depends on a single product.
     
  33. Harb

    Harb Guest

    You can legitimately debate the impact of success in other Mythic or different company MMOs, and what it may mean to UO. I'm a bit "neutral" here. We play UO because we like it, and it's been the lion's share of our family entertainment dollar for over a decade. What I do know for sure, is that if EA "pulls the plug" on our game, we're done with EA. It's also important to bear in mind the demographic that does play UO. I suspect neither is lost to anyone within EA.
     
  34. Garth,
    Youre not serious are you? Warhammer makes money. We agree (though we are agreeing future). UO still makes money (for 10 years, established with a players base). You may not agree. Close UO and you lose money.


    If WH make 250 million a year and UO pulls in 10 million a year. ITS STILL 10 MILLION.

    Argh.

    What am I missing, please tell me.


    How abou this.

    WH launches and they run it to make money.
    UO continues and they run it to make money.

    Right?
     
  35. Lord Kotan

    Lord Kotan Slightly Crazed
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    Maybe I don't like oranges or am allegric to oranges.... I see your point, but I don't think they'd sell 300 oranges.. maybe 280
     
  36. kelmo

    kelmo Old and in the way
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    A Mythic success is good for us all. It is that simple.
     
  37. kelmo

    kelmo Old and in the way
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    I run a steak house. I sell a lot of steaks. I also sell chicken and seafood. I even have vegetarian dishes. It all flows to the bottom line.

    Every now and then I run combo specials... *hint to Mythic*
     
  38. Ni-

    Ni- Guest

    Surf & Terf anyone?
     
  39. Brillance. Thanks for the point. The bottom line is good. Consider UO the others to WH steak. Either way. The both contribute.
     
  40. GalenKnighthawke

    GalenKnighthawke Grand Poobah
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    Thank you for the analogy.

    Sure, you could at any time decide to dump the other dishes and go all steak. But it would be a stupid and irrational thing to do and you are unlikely to do it.

    -Galen's player
     
  41. Lord Kynd

    Lord Kynd Guest



    ok lets pick this apart a bit...
    actually screw that ...
    lets get right to the bottom line ...
    advertising
    War has it , UO never has ...
    period, you can not compare the two just because of this small variable that meens alot.
     
  42. Lord Kynd

    Lord Kynd Guest

    well dunno about irrational
    not to long ago i gave up a few things i have eaten my whole life and have since been eating Minon/tenderloin steaks nearly every other night since, and the off nights i still eat some sort of beef, usually in the form of a steak.
    screw the salads and other 'filler' garbage... give me a nice big juicy steak and i'm all set, no need for other junk to 'compliment' dishes.
    and don't forget the A-1


    mmmm mmmm mm...
    time to go fire the grill up.
     
  43. Black Sun

    Black Sun Grand Poobah
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    I think UO will stay open regardless of how well any of EA's other MMORPGs are doing just so long as one thing remains true.

    That the amount being brought in monthly from subscriptions covers the cost of actually keeping the game servers running. When the subscriptions drop off to the point where it's actually a loss for EA to keep it open, that's when UO will shut down.

    Personally, I prefer to just ignore other games, and the predictions of doom and gloom. I enjoy UO, and I will continue to do so as long as I can keep playing it. When the day finally arrives that UO is to be shut down, that's the day I will worry about what's going to happen. I want to enjoy myself while I can, and for as long as I can.
     
  44. kelmo

    kelmo Old and in the way
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    *smiles* Of course Warhammer has the ad dollars. It is a new game. UO is an 11 year old game.

    The gist of this debate is whether the two can coexist. I say yes. Funny you should mention bottom line. A healthy bottom line is difficult to achieve in these tough economic times, especially in the entertainment industry.

    Frivolous expenditures like entertainment are often the first to go
     
  45. Lord Kynd

    Lord Kynd Guest




    if they ever did this i would quit very fast.

    and nope, at this point i am not willing at all to even give a different client or game engine a chance, so i will be one to post the last part of what you said.

    games like Wow and diablo suck because of there graphics. not to mention the 'over sizing ' of everything ... but yet scaled down .. hit points are about the same, you might get wrapped up is seeing a hit for over 10,000 points but when you have 5,000,000,000 hit points that is the same as getting hit for 20 points and only having 150 max hit points. scaleing doesn't make a game better.
     
  46. Lord Kynd

    Lord Kynd Guest

    true
    by bottom line i wasn't refering to $$ made
    but something that keeps UO from actually growing even after 11 years.
    still after 11 years EA should be proud that UO is doing as good as it is :)
    most games fail after a year.
     
  47. gjohnson5

    gjohnson5 Guest

    Or better yet more money then EA cares to invest in this game.
     
  48. Uvtha

    Uvtha Grand Poobah
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    And unfortunately those people are there. That's not the only problem anyway.
    If KR had a modern feel to it it would be able to draw in new customers. We shall see what the SA client comes up with, and how that effects the base.

    I still say UO will never reach modern level subs.