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Next decade prediction

Discussion in 'UHall' started by THP, Jan 1, 2010.

  1. THP

    THP Stratics Legend
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    UO rises from 200k to 500k,,,,LORDY¬¬!!

    WOW drops from 12 mill to 1m...LOL .. minus the trial scam.. LOL

    why?? LOL i think all true gamers now.....LOL

    lololololololololololooloolol
     
  2. LadyNico

    LadyNico Always Present
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    If it's WoW, I don't actually need to know, but okay. :lick:
     
  3. sevan

    sevan Guest

    I think its great that we gain 300K subs, however, where did the 11mil subs that you predict WoW will drop go? Maybe we will finally get a true UO sequel finally that not only puts WoW to shame and steals untold millions of players but as a side effect thru clever cross promotion and "bridges" between the two games the original UO gains subs as well. I for one would have played BOTH UO and its sequel (take your pick from all that have been cancelled) had I been given the option to play both for a decent price ex. $20 per month.

    I personally think that if UO (2D at least) was marketed heavier to the netbook users and facebook crowds we could gain subs that way. Maybe expirment with free to play options (specific new player shard perhaps???) that are basically enhanced free trial accounts or come up with tiered access plans to try to attract more players to try uo for free or low $. We know that EA is finally realizing they can make actual $$$ from microtransactions so there is really no limit to the new things they can try to increase the player base & profits.
     
  4. Lord Gareth

    Lord Gareth UO Content Editor | UO Chesapeake & Rares News
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    Totally agree. need those little banner things to pop up on facebook. Come on ill open a few extra accounts to pay for them to advertise it!
     
  5. Salivern_Diago

    Salivern_Diago Lore Master
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    Ya know, if Mythic did that it would increase the subs by loads and would be awesome...

    But lets be honest, do you really think EA has the brainpower to actually do that? Lets face it the people in suits who portray the advertising departments are not exactly bright or savvy are they. Time and time again EA has missed the boat, lost the key and generally looked at the map upside down. What really needs to happen is for a proper software company to buyout the idiots at the top of EA and turn EA and its subsideries into proper functioning companies that produce what gamers want, get rid of the stupid copy protection that they force all thier paying customers to endure, market thier bread and butter games (IE UO) and to actually start listening to people who pay thier wages.

    The UO clone thing thats being produced in the Asian continent isnt a EA company (not directly EA anyway as far as I know) so that at lest will get a chance (With EA's history of throwing up the middle finger at all the UO fans... UO2, UXO etc etc) and will be released over there.

    Sorry for sounding negative, but we're treated poorly by EA and they simply couldnt give a rats arse. But we stay 'cos UO is the only MMO that has the adaptability, scope and sheer playability in the market. WoW is only as big as it is becuase of clever marketing and the fact that it has the 'middle road' features. enough to please most but not enough to make it truely a MMO IMO (MMORPG's... RPG's in general are more than just fighting. They are virtual worlds... and WoW lacks at being a virtual world... its a PVP simulator...).

    Ok rant over... breath.... *sighs*

    Thats my opinons etc take it as you will!
     
  6. aarons6

    aarons6 Certifiable
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    i have a theory..
    they dont advertise because then people would join.. the more the people that join the more they have to spend on upgrades to the computer systems..
    also more people playing the more it costs to transfer and store the data..

    if they keep the players at a minimum, they make money and dont have to upgrade anything or do anything extra. cost vs income is balanced.

    can you imagine if say 1000 people bought this game and joined tomorrow?
    you wouldnt beable to log in for a week because the log in servers would go down due to heavy traffic.
    they would have to upgrade then in 6 months if 50% of those poeple quit, they wouldnt recover the costs of the upgrades and the game would go broke or the fees would go up.

    its fine how it is.
     
  7. Salivern_Diago

    Salivern_Diago Lore Master
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    Its fine as it is?

    You do realise that shards are emptying like running water from a waterfall? Well maybe not that bad but subscribers are leaving thats for sure...

    Many people say "Well my shard is still heaving with people" and yes it is... Its cos its Atlantic and when people look at thier home shard and see it empty they either leave too cos they've lost the people they play with or they migrate to Atlantic.

    I dont care if it costs them to upgrade the servers, I dont care that it makes them have to work more. All I care about is the game I enjoy playing being maintaned to a level that I can play with.

    You may like playing on empty shards and bask in the glow of possible termination of service...

    But I'ld prefer to play a game I enjoy with people. If 1000 people joined... Right lets look at the rough mathematics on this...

    1000 People @ £10 per subscriber = £10,000

    Lets work with that figure. Assuming the servers they have used to work with over 100,000 people online at peak (I believe the max subscription was around 250k people). With the introduction of the new expansions and items they would need to upgrade the server lines (possibly) and some memory upgrades. Now considering the servers they are using are a good few years old now, then spare parts would be cheaper and easy avaliable (Just look on Ebay...) I believe a surge of £10,000 would easilly faciltate and pay for the upgrades each server requires (Not that they would need it).

    So in short, I have to disagree with your statement and I believe the extra money from the inital surge would be more than enough to cover upgrades IF required. Any subscriptions after that would be profit. So in a business model it would make sense. Besides, dont you think with the surge in subscriptions after the release of SA that some substantal income was generated?

    In short your theory would state that UO is dying to the point that EA/Mythic are flogging a dead horse and we're all playing a already dead game. EA's history speaks for itself, it has time and time again failed its customers, perverted people away from its products and failed those designers and developers that pour thier heart and soul into the products they produce.

    Just look at the recent reshuffle at Mythic... Warhammer is failing... So some of the UO staff are fired and the staff from Warhammer are moved over. What makes Cal think moving staff from a failed product to a still working and viable product is a good idea?

    No, EA dont advertise becuase those in suits dont really have much of a clue what they are doing... Why else do you think EA is loosing money left right and center, has one of the lowest expectations of all the software giants and cant product a title worthy of the crap they stick in to 'stop' priates? Not one bit of copy protection they've produced has stopped pirates but its stopped people buying thier products. Spore being the PERFECT example.

    A simple question here... how many legit EA games have you bought in the last couple or three years and its copyprotection hasnt bothered you one bit? (With regards to rootkits, Online activation and double or triple copyprotection on the disk).

    Be honest...
     
  8. Theo_GL

    Theo_GL Grand Poobah
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    My prediction...UO will not make it through 2011. We will likely limp through 2010 on skeleton staff and eventually EA will realize that micro-games is where the revenue stream is and will shut down UO and other non-performing titles.

    200k subs? That is laughable. I would be surprised if UO was north of 75k paid subscriptions.

    I know it is a long shard list - but lets be realistic. Some of these shards like the Korean ones have less than 50 active players and most of them play a primary Japan shard and have chars in Korea.
     
  9. Salivern_Diago

    Salivern_Diago Lore Master
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    Once UO had over 250k Subs!

    Now its no where near that... cos EA dont really care TBH
     
  10. Ender

    Ender Crazed Zealot
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    I hate to say it but I agree with this
     
  11. Jim Fisher

    Jim Fisher Guest

    Let's face the facts. UO was the first MMO game (correct me if I'm wrong) to ever reach 250k subsribers. The graphics may be a bit outdated, but poeople are still playing it which suggests they don't have a problem with the current graphics. Sure we'd all like to see nice flashy 3D graphics, but if thosewere brought into play, it would become a different game entirely. First timers generally pick Warcraft over UO for themain reason it has millions of players and has better graphics. They haven't expierenced a proper playerbase and all thethings that make UO better than other games, therefore they don't know what they're missing out on. People also leave UO mostly for real life reasons, such as lack of time in life to play, getting older or ecause they wer emotionally upset by the wild game of UO. Alot of gamers who play the very popular games on Xbox Live and Playstation would not be able to cope with UO gameplay, such as dying and loing all your stuff etc. Thy don't like hard love games and nor do the young people of today(with exceptions of people like me and others) like lower graphic games. They look at UO and see outdated graphics and then look at Warcraft and see better graphics. UO is no longer a "hardcore" game. It has to much in the way of playerbase and craftings, economy etc. Alot of people just like to kill these days. (Modern Warfare 2's massive release is pure evidence of this). We all love the game of UO, even if it is a bit dated. The low end graphics in fact normally make it easier for people to play it. You don't need a quad core water cooled $4000 gaming machine to play UO, just any old one will do. Sure, less people are playing UO than when it was first released, But if you look at Warcraft in a few years time, hte same thing will happen. When better overall graphics become available, new games will be made that utilize this. If you wated to completely overhaul UO, for instance, you would have to customize every aspect of the game which is a costly thing to do. Even for Warcraft with the millions it must make, it would be hard to upgrade completely. Then will be the inevitable bugs and people quitin bcause of them. Then after a couple of years it will settle down, but by then it might be to late to save the game.
    My Brother quit UO and began playin Warcraft because he played free shards and while he enjoyed it, he couldntgo on another world and start all over again. Nor did he particularly care about playerbase. He was interested in only several things in gaming:pVM, PVP, Guild PVM and Guild PVP. UO isnt right for everybody. Starting any massive online game is hard, and many quit before they have a chance to play as a normal player, not a newbie, which I think we can all agree, is a hard role to play.

    Sure maybe you saw Rainz kill Lord British in what is possibly the most remembred part of UO, sure maybe you saw the player base decline, but tell me straight in the face it wasn't fun, it wasn't expected and you wouldn't do it again.
     
  12. Siteswap

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    200k?

    UO has less than half that number of subscriptions. I'd say 80k is nearer the mark.
     
  13. HD2300

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    NetDragon in China will make UO2. If it is real 3D then watchout. They have exclusive rights in China and India, but EA could use it everywhere else.

    My estimate of current subscribers is 50k. It was 70k two years ago, when lots of devs left after KR, and someone leaked the number. The number should be who is paying every month, because you don't count trials accounts, free return to brit accounts or something even looser like anyone who has played in the last 3 years.
     
  14. Sarsmi

    Sarsmi Grand Poobah
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    I'd put UO at 30k unique subscriptions and 70k total subs. Micro transactions are the next trend, but I think UO will be fine doing as it is.
     
  15. sevan

    sevan Guest

    Agreed. So what form do you see this taking in UO? Just an increase in available items, services, tokens etc (maybe even EA sold gold) available for sale from the uo game code site? Or do you think someday we will see different pricing tiers and/or free to play option to dramatically increase accounts and extend UO's life further than x date? Anything to prevent UO from becoming the next EA land...

    I guess the real question is how much we (the existing UO base) is willing to adapt to whatever changes/ideas EA Mythic comes up with down the line to keep UO on "life support" if not even *gasp* highly profitable if done correctly.

    What is the greater of two evils? A game that one day is in danger of being shutdown due to falling below the "break even point" in subs or one that is given a new lease on life by filling the servers with new players that come on board at a lower cost (or free) than what we have been used to in the past? I personally will support anything change that keeps UO alive for many many years to come.
     
  16. Lorax_Pacific

    Lorax_Pacific Lore Master
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    My next 10 year prediction is I will have a 20 year old account and still no castle.

    -Lorax
     
  17. Sarsmi

    Sarsmi Grand Poobah
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    I think they'll increase the number of token items they have available. They would need some really hard, positive data to ever think about making subs free (to increase their customer base) while using micro transactions solely to generate revenue. I find this pretty unlikely to occur.

    For one thing people can often live without extras, unless they feel the extra item to be something necessary to gameplay (great weapon or armor or a soulstone etc). However it would create an extremely unhappy consumer base, one which is used to the idea that anything they need ingame they can work for ingame.

    Also they wouldn't generate the kind of numbers they need without having any sort of advertising for the game. Bad enough that there aren't boxes on the shelves any more for new expansions. Making the game free would get players who played but left the game, but not so many genuine new players. And in the unlikely event that UO begins to bustle at the seams, that is also in it's own way bad for the game. The dev team is too small to make rapid changes in order to accommodate a massive surge of new players. UO is not a game that has instanced dungeons, so there is no way to manage a sudden influx of players. We really can only have so many people without adding new landmasses.


    tl;dr: I think they prefer the steady bit of income they get from regular paid subs to depending on micro-transactions, the game just isn't set up that way anyways.
     
  18. One day a new MMORPG will be released which combines a lot of the existing MMORPG's which subsequently will lose a lot of subscriptions. This new MMORGP will combine medieval fantasy-like worlds with space exploration enticing both fantasy and scifi players. There will be worlds which are like the Sims and worlds more like BF2/CoD and everything in between. It'll have an economy linked to real world money just like Entropia.

    Best of all it'll be an EA game and all UO accounts would be imported giving the vets a reward for migrating to this new all-encompassing game :D

    Until this new game comes I predict MMORPG's will pretty much be the same.
     
  19. Llwyd

    Llwyd Guest

    I predict there will be a major solar event in the next few years that will severely impact power sources, and no one will have internet access for months or years to come.

    Tongue-in cheek, of course... been reading too mamy conspiracy theories...
     
  20. Mook Chessy

    Mook Chessy Certifiable
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    We need Mr T!!

    WOW spent more on the production of the commercial, nevermind the actual airtime, then EA has spent on UO ever!!

    I can say that UO will not make it for another 10 years! No idea when its goes dark but no chance to make it 10 more years!

    Either way I'm here til the lights go out!!

    Try Siege, before its too late!

    "I pity the fool" that has never tried Siege!!
     
  21. bumblefutz

    bumblefutz Guest

    I think this is the same ****** who's been running around here for years claiming WoW's subscription numbers include trial accounts, when it's explicitly stated that they do not.

    Apparently Blizzard pays their developers and satisfies their investors with fake dollars from all those fake subscriptions.
     
  22. Stark_Atl

    Stark_Atl Guest

    I hope UO is around for 20 years. I'm having too much fun right now to think about "the end."

    <-- Recent Returnee
     
  23. Mitzlplik_SP

    Mitzlplik_SP Guest

    A double eclipse that alignes with the Dark Rift!

    I don`t care if UO lasts 10 more years....it only has to last 2 more anyways than it won`t matter to anyone. :eyes:

    *runs off to find my tinfoil hat*
     
  24. Llwyd

    Llwyd Guest

    *hides something behind back*

    No... it's mine!
     
  25. Zooithion

    Zooithion Crazed Zealot
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    My thoughts exactly. Besides, People have been saying "the end" for the 125 months I've played UO.

    Long Live UO!
     
  26. Gladius

    Gladius Guest

    LMFAO I see that they are "smart" after all eh? Very soon people if I may add would realize that UO with EA is a doomed enterprise. MARK MY WORDS beloved players.

    -G-
     
  27. Mitzlplik_SP

    Mitzlplik_SP Guest

    Kind of hard to take this seriously since UO has been with EA since the very beginning.

    Damn doomsayers....go play a game thats truely dying.....this ones been dying for 12 years.

    Mark your words....... LOL, yea OK.

    What? If 1000 ppl bought and joined tomorrow you wouldn`t see a damned bit of difference. This game held a hell of alot more peaple than it currently has....what makes you think it couldn`t at anytime again? They wouldn`t hafta do jack to accomodate a huge influx of players..... not that it will happen,but if it did.... UO would be fine and you would see no ill effects of another 10-20k peaple logging in every day.

    Thats the most flawed theary I`ve ever heard of. I mean it was good for a decent giggle...for that I thank you. :thumbsup:
     
  28. Xenobia

    Xenobia Lore Keeper
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    No flashy graphics for me and I would do every single bit over and over and over again! I love this game and always will. Some of the best times in my life over the past 12 years happened in Ultima Online. The friends are amazing (like family) The things to do are awesome...you just can't go wrong with a game like UO. I will stop playing when they are boxing me up to go meet my maker and I hope they toss a laptop in with me just in case! THAT is how much I adore my "Good Book" Ultima Online!
     
  29. Xenobia

    Xenobia Lore Keeper
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    I want to elaborate a bit more on this....
    Here is what I would do over. I would have my very first set of EXPENSIVE GM armor stripped off my behind by a PK and sit at my computer and cry, I would fight beside hundreds of people in Trinsic to kill a GM controlled white wyrm, I would sit at the Brit forge for hours on end with my friends and repair armor at no charge and have our little ghost friend sit next to us all day without taking a rez (he was funny), I would hit the Abyss shard and log out orange and dead, I would have a GM marry me all over again with all of my nearest and dearest friends standing at my side, I would fight for the smallest of houses (but dammit it was MY house!), I would do everything in my power to help out anyone in need (I still do that), I would get on a boat with an EM and go find the treasure and I would work my tail off to get every last character I have to where I want them to be. No cheating, just work! There are thousands of other things I could list here but I think you get the point. Ultima Online has ALWAYS been more than a game to me. It has been my release when the world around me wasn't the greatest, it has been my fun when I was down. I could come home from a hard day at work and immediately start laughing out loud because the people I hung out with were just THAT cool. I thank EA for giving me such a wonderful 12 years and I hope I get another 12 or more :)
     
  30. sevan

    sevan Guest

    Well met... could not have said it better myself. How many ppl can say that about any other game? It becomes a part of your life... even if you leave for a while it stays with you.
     
  31. DevilsOwn

    DevilsOwn Stratics Legend
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  32. Xenobia

    Xenobia Lore Keeper
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    Thank you sevan :)
     
  33. sevan

    sevan Guest

    Yeah, the guy spent over 300K in real money to buy a virtual space station. However, from what the article said if he runs it as a business he could actually make the money back and then some?!?? This reminds me of the early days of UO when you would see Castles & Keeps selling for thousands of dollars depending on the location.
     
  34. sevan

    sevan Guest

    Anytime man.
     
  35. Scarst

    Scarst Lore Master
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    I've actually been hesitant to plan out a monthly event with a big tournament at the end of the year cause I keep thinking that's being to hopeful haha