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Occam's Razor

Discussion in 'UHall' started by Flutter, Aug 3, 2008.

  1. Flutter

    Flutter Always Present
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    After every set of bannings we get posts and posts of "innocent" people stomping their feet and stating that it was just a case of mistaken identity.
    Happens every time.
    Let's use Occam's Razor for this one folks. This phenomena can be explained with few if any assumptions on anyone's part.
    Think about it. Don't automatically believe there must be some other explanation as to why people got banned... all these poor innocent people... *laugh*
    Let's pretend for a moment that the people doing the banning actually knew what they were doing.
    It never ceases to amaze me the number of people who buy into the whole "Gosh if I was guilty I wouldn't be posting here I would just take my lumps!" BULL and actually believe that all of these people got banned for being innocent.
    Use the brains God gave you people.
     
  2. Zofinur

    Zofinur Guest

    If that´s true for every ban then ppl like Lucy of Kenton and me would not ask to discuss their cases in the public!
     
  3. Dermott of LS

    Dermott of LS UOEC Modder
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    ...

    Agreed. There are always a few people who actually ARE innocent that get involved in these, but NOT the number that we are seeing posting.

    Plus some of the leaps of logic are pretty astounding and have been since earlier bannings. If you buy and sell rares and you bought a "unique" item, the likelyhood that YOUR item is the REAL one and everyone else's is the dupe are pretty damned low.

    Once the dupes atrted hitting and targeting rares, it became a VERY buyer-beware market (moreso than normal).

    You're dealing with COUNTERFEIT items. Much like in the real world, selling such items can get you in a LOT of trouble (in UO you won't go to real life jail, but you could get banned), so the choice to take the chance is up to you.

    I also agree with another poster... it's almost mind-boggling to see the abrupt change in attitude from "BAN THEM!" to "OMG!!! YOU BANNED THEM NO FAIR!!!"

    Maybe you didn't know your friend quite as well as you thought... hmm?
     
  4. Beldon

    Beldon Guest

    Yeah, people have been wishing for this for years and now they got it. "But hey, I didn't mean ban my friend... I meant ban someone else friend."
     
  5. Lady_Mina

    Lady_Mina Guest

    well i have a lot of empathy...wich gives me the ability and imagination how it would feel if that scenario would happen to me.

    On the other hand i'm confused aswell...there are no clear statements.

    Everything is kinda getting out of hand with those dupers...this is really a huge disaster EA has to deal with.

    Don't think i've seen such a crisis in any other online game.

    Sure they're cheaters and hackers in other games..but never have i seen the population of exploiters grow so fast...it's like a freakin' virus.
     
  6. Jhym

    Jhym Guest

    Now Flutter, be nice. It's denial and anger phase.
    Soon we will be on to sweet, sweet acceptance.

    I am SO looking forward to posts from the higher ups in the next day or two...
     
  7. Flutter

    Flutter Always Present
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    Sorry, soooo tired of the "im innocent" posts. Like the people here on the Stratics forums can help solve your problems.
    I am sure some of the people posting really believe that they are innocent. That just doesn't make it so. I talk to people all day long, some of whom don't believe what they are doing is wrong. Sad but true.
    Ignorance of the law is no excuse. But whatever.
    Posting about how you are innocent and didn't do anything wrong just doesn't even register in my head as something that I personally would do if I got banned... for anything. First of all it's none of anyone elses business, much less the business of the entire Stratics posting community. Second of all it accomplishes nothing, unless you think getting the soft hearted people to believe you is somehow helpful.

    What bothers me most is the number of people who just jump on the "poor you" bandwagon and actually believe that you have done absolutely nothing wrong and those evil satanic EAMythic people MUST PAY!! for their wrongdoings!! *grabs pitchfork* THOSE BAST........
    Gah... nevermind.

    Just sad.
    Apply Occam's Razor. The most simple of answers is sometimes true. People got banned for doing illegal stuff. Period.
     
  8. Coranthe

    Coranthe Guest

    I just hope for every one that comes on here protesting their innocence that there are 10-20 more taking their lumps. To be honest, I'm rather enjoying hearing about all these bannings. Long overdue!
     
  9. Lady_Mina

    Lady_Mina Guest

    I don't want to scream : 'burn them ! send them to hell!' and later on find out that they were actualy innocent and look like a total b!tch. lol

    You never know.

    I don't know what to believe lately...it's all so confusing.
     
  10. MalagAste

    MalagAste Belaern d'Zhaunil
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    I've been reading and rereading a ton of posts on the subject and quite honestly I'm rather glad for one that I'm usually poor. As I don't really buy "Rare" items persay. I do buy things like Runic kits... only cause I don't have zillions of hours to spend getting billions of bods to get the item..... I have hundreds of bods but more often than not they won't get me a good runic... that said I find it a bit concerning that folk are getting banned for buying duped items... I don't SELL anything ingame.... I do go out and GET tons of items usually through actually getting them in game like 10th anny items, peerless stuff, and things of this nature.... doom arties.... now that I can get them.... I do get my own.... but I'm a bit concerned I love shopping ingame... that's one of my favorite past-times.. and now I am very concerned about shopping.... that's not good.
     
  11. Eslake

    Eslake Guest

    So many claiming their innocense, I would love to see EA/M take a counterstand on the issue.

    They should make it so that users claiming innocense can authorize them to post details of why they were banned here for everyone to see.

    I bet the forums would get very very quiet. ;)

    I doubt most of the claims of "I only had 2 valorite hammers I paid full price for" would want to have it known that they actually had 174 valorite hammers and a vendor stocked with another 30. Or that they were *cough* "loaning" their rares to dupers for RL $.
     
  12. I'm sorry, but don't most people accused of a crime claim that they are innocent, many doing so through news media or even just at their own trial? I don't know you nor Lucy of Kenton, so I am not trying to claim that either of you are in fact guilty, but publicly pleading your case does not make you innocent. Does anyone remember Scott Peterson, among many of the other convicted spouse killers to have made the news in the past few years? Simply stating that you didn't do it and asking for a public discussion does not prove innocence, as humans are emotional and fallible, and thus may be persuaded to reach the wrong decision based on the "facts" presented.
     
  13. Flutter

    Flutter Always Present
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    Exactly, hence my whole "Occam's Razor" comment. There may be "facts" that perhaps those who are in charge know about that caused these "poor innocent" folks to be banned...
     
  14. Cysphruo

    Cysphruo Guest

    flutter you've gotten mean over the years, while its true the majority of the time people aren't innocent you also have to look at who's handing out the bans, they could have easily implemented a system that banned anyone who bought stuff from select vendors or something odd like that, just remember who your dealing with before saying people aren't innocent.
     
  15. Erekose

    Erekose Seasoned Veteran
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    That isn't necessarily true either. I am NOT saying either of you are guilty, but just because someone publically proclaims their innocence doesn't make it so.

    Prisons are chock full of people who didn't do it. Just ask them!
     
  16. Uriah Heep

    Uriah Heep Crazed Zealot
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    ROFLMAO

    I'm sorry, I just suddenly had this vision of OJ in my head hehheh

    :offtopic:
     
  17. kelmo

    kelmo Old and in the way
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    *nods* It seems you've seen this rodeo before.
     
  18. Flutter

    Flutter Always Present
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    Naw, I've just gotten mean over the years.
     
  19. NuSair

    NuSair Babbling Loonie
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    I am not saying EA/Mythic doesn't make mistakes, and maybe there are a few that are truely innocent, but on the majority, I am of the belief that they got it right, by hearing things through the grapevine and things posted on other sites.

    Personally, I think that most of them are people that saw for a while that Mythic didnt' care about duping/hacking and thought if they can, why can't I, and now that they have cracked down on it, are claiming how they were wronged.

    I will be paying attention to see what official response comes down the tube.

    But until something more solid comes out saying they messed up, I fulll back Mythic on this.
     
  20. Zofinur

    Zofinur Guest

    Yeah, and i would love to hear about these facts.
    For the moment all i know is

    Your Ultima Online account has been permanently terminated from the Ultima Online service due to the following violation of the Rules of Conduct.

    Violation: Exploitation of game properties/distributing exploitation of the Ultima Online service

    Rules of Conduct: 19) You will not exploit any bug in the Ultima Online product or the Ultima Online Service. You will not intentionally use or share any bug found within Ultima Online, whether or not it grants an unfair advantage, is real or fictitious. You will not communicate the existence of any such bug (either directly or indirectly) to any other user of the Ultima Online Service. You will report any such exploit using the bug reporting methods as described by the Ultima Online Service at http://www.uo.com/mailBug.html.​

    There is no (detailed) reason given in the email
    There is no answer to emails nor forms (except the autoreply)
    There is no hotline-agent available

    But before they give details they drop houses, delete (unique[!]) items. Things that cant be reverted if me or any other turns out to be innocent in the end.
    Yes, burn houses or block them and make them OSI-owned. Even post the names and the reasons why somebody is banned.

    But do not act without hearing the ppl and giving them a chance to talk to somebody.

    How would u feel if police knocks on ur door telling u that they arrest u because u did violate rule #19 ... and then saying nothing more?
     
  21. Zofinur

    Zofinur Guest

    All we did is asking for a public trial since we got nothing to hide!
     
  22. Ender

    Ender Crazed Zealot
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    I refuse to believe that there are any random/accidental bans. Everybody was either violating the rules or foolish enough to have multiple duped items on their account I bet.
     
  23. HD2300

    HD2300 Certifiable
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    Just speculating. Maybe a competitor or someone got busted and named names. If an item is supposed to be unique, and no longer is, then it is obvious it has been duped.
     
  24. Jirel of Joiry

    Jirel of Joiry Certifiable
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    I suppose its possible some innocent people got caught in the drag net.

    On the other hand there are people that are guilty that will swear up and down they're innocent. Charles Manson comes to mind; he swears he's innocent. He also swears he's Jesus Christ. Okay he certainly is GUILTY, and he sure the heck ain't Jesus Christ!!! Just because the looney tune says other wise don't make it so!

    So who do you believe? I'll go with the 12 people that convicted him. Just like I'll go with dev team unless you can show me otherwise.

    Nuff Said!

    Jirel
     
  25. SDragor

    SDragor Guest

    Evil tongues could say, you'd only suggest this because you know EA will never discuss these issues in public.

    I just keep asking myself, what was complained more about: The duping and cheating going on for years, of a handful of allegedly "innocent" people who got just banned. I suspect that the latter receives more attention from the player base. One could assume that the manipulation of the player base by the dupers was successful...
     
  26. Coppelia

    Coppelia Guest

    Seriously Flutter, stop your stubborn crusade.
    Errare humanum est.

    We can't say who's lying, who's not, if there are mistake or not. You're just assuming like everybody.
     
  27. Satanatra

    Satanatra Guest

    A public trial? youve got to be joking. Who would be the judge? Us? ur friends? In the end people believe what they want to believe even if u bury them in evidence.

    This is a game and not a court. Remember everyone complaining bout how long the dupe was going on without anything being done? Well guess what - they were watching/collecting evidence.

    I cant believe people suggest they did this QUICKLY. If anything, if they had done it quickly, fewer "nice players" (as in non-hard core dupers) might have been banned. Going so slowly made a lot of people think no one cared and so a lot of people who wouldnt normal have been involved gave into temptation.
     
  28. Satanatra

    Satanatra Guest

    Oh, and someone said " why would i ask for a public trial unless i was innocent?"

    Well, you are currently banned, have nothing to lose, and can only gain by having public pressure reverse your sentence OR make yourself into some fictional martyr.

    Hrm... why is it that people complaining about being banned were all somehow rich and connected to rares or luna...

    Would anyone who was poor/had no rares/no stack of cheques/luna vendor please stand up?
     
  29. Lady_Mina

    Lady_Mina Guest

    Well that's just the problem...

    We're standing at the side line...not know who's lieing and who's not.
    Who's innocent and who's not.

    That's why we should all stop pointing fingers and just take a step back.
     
  30. Kiminality

    Kiminality Guest

    I don't personally know any of those who have been banned.
    I know several of those that know them, but that doesn't really count for anything.

    A couple of the banned people are not those that I would have suspected.
    Certainly, I have no reason to doubt that they were running epic duping operations on the sly, or something, but it just doesn't click.
    People do lie, though, and appearances can be deceiving.
    On the one hand, it's always possible for people to be falsely accused. It happens all the time, in all manner of contexts.
    On the other hand, the bannings were decisive. The account was banned, and the house with all its contents was removed. You don't tend to do something like that without substantial reason, which weighs quite heavily against the innocent.
     
  31. The_Letter_E

    The_Letter_E Guest

    I think the real complaint here is that people were not told WHY their accounts were banned. You're supposed to have seven days to reply to the accusation according to the CS Agreement.

    A friend had their account banned, keep deleted, and was an admittedly obsessive pack rat. Nutso obsessive in my opinion. But a duper they are not.

    E
     
  32. Piotr

    Piotr Stratic's Finest
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    Thanks God I saved Wilki's post after the last time we had a major banning round and some people were claiming their innocence! :)


    Love you Wilki! :thumbsup:
     
  33. Sam the Scribe

    Sam the Scribe Visitor

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    Since EA gets subscription fees for every account... and every time they ban an account they loose money... it's reasonable to assume that they are pretty certain that something funny is going on before they kick a paying customer out the door.

    The bartender isn't gonna kick you outta the bar for being drunk. He's gonna kick you out when you're drunk AND obnoxious.

    Safe Travels, Sam
     
  34. Lady_Mina

    Lady_Mina Guest

    Europa's most famous rare collect is selling his (true , server birth) rares for real money.

    People are massivly xsharding to buy his rares.

    I'm pretty sure those true server birth rares will end up being duped and xshard-ed back and forth...
    I noticed a lot of people from other shards are posting on his rares museum bulletin.

    Wich is sort of a loss for Europa...cause now is not a good time to be selling true server birth rares for real cash with all those dupers lurking.

    Ahwell it's his rares , his cash..he does with it what he wants...
    Just the odds of those rares falling in the wrong hands is like 99% chance.
     
  35. Emil Ispep

    Emil Ispep Sage
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    With the exception of *two* or *three* people whos accounts were banned, I am very happy and excited to see vendors self-combusting, and all the Luna shopkeepers who fell asleep smoking.
     
  36. hawkeye_pike

    hawkeye_pike Babbling Loonie
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    That's exactly my point! End of discussion. Thanks Piotr!
     
  37. MYUO

    MYUO Guest

    What Wiki wrote in that post, together with his dedication to UO players, raised his fame and kama to Glorious among UO players. That is what I called "passion", instead of just another job.

    As for the banning, it is very nice to see it coming. Unless something really screwed up at EA, I don't believe these many "innocent" players are wrongly banned. Anyone who still plays UO won't believe the game company is stupid enough to ban without discrepancy. Players who have tens of million of gold to spend on high end runics/rares know what they are doing since their wealth is built on the knowledge of the game mechanism.

    If someone is truely innocent, he/she can still commnicate with Jeremy proactively on this forum to fully resolve the issue. Unfortunately, their loss is the collateral damage that players have to pay. Remember, it is the cheaters who caused all these.
     
  38. Aboo

    Aboo Guest

    I love Wilki. He had a way with words, both kind and harsh, whatever the circumstances warranted. Glad you saved that post!
     
  39. Beldon

    Beldon Guest

    Post this on the front of UOstratics.... or at least sticky it
     
  40. Erekose

    Erekose Seasoned Veteran
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    Anyone who has followed these conversations knows that I have been just as critical and just as suspicious of the cries of innocence. Now I find myself eating my words just a little. A good friend of mine was just banned. She leads a large guild and warned her members last night not to pay attention to the asshat here on Stratics who was sending the link with the dupe info.

    Apparantly, just mentioning that the exploit existed was enough to get her banned and their guildhall deleted. I know that now I sound like all the other 'but my friend didnt' do anything wrong' posts, and I'm gagging on my earlier suspicions and words, but there is no way they did any kind of investigation on this one. The word 'dupe' was used. No specific information or URL was passed along. I know, and I told her, that just mentioning that an exploit exists is enough to get one banned, but this was done with the best of intentions in order to warn people NOT to follow the link that was being passed around and NOT to use ANY exploits.


    *sighs* As I've said, a few innocents probably got caught up in this. Now I know one personally. I've known this person since she started the game, and there is no way she or her guild deserved this.

    I'd give up my account to get their stuff and her account restored. I mean that. I emailed pretty much the same thing to Mythic.
     
  41. I can tell you why.

    If enough of the "right people" on stratics get behind you, you can move mountains.

    I personally recall several people getting lost items back (houses) because they had support on uhall. Replacing lost items is something ea has always said they would never do.

    I dont recall any names and with the old forums seemingly gone forever, i have no links. But im sure someone else remembers these people getting their houses back because they had stratics support.

    Im not saying your wrong. im just telling you why (before you flame the crap out of me)

    I agree thou, whiners need to learn, if your not part of the "right people" your not getting unbanned and if you are.. well you wouldnt have gotten banned in the first place now would you.
     
  42. drinkbeerallday

    drinkbeerallday Visitor

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    Does any of this matter? If even one person was wrongly banned and lost their house or something that is just as bad as if it happened to 5000 people.
     
  43. Tomas_Bryce

    Tomas_Bryce Rares Collector Extraordinaire | Rares Fest Host
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    She did NOT get banned for using the word dupe. You are crazy if you believe that.
     
  44. Zofinur

    Zofinur Guest

    I remember Wilki did unban Tia

    And then i read today another name, since i dont remember that name beeing unbanned im not sure if he even was banned before: Manticore
    So please forgive me if the name is mentioned withouth any reference to banning!
     
  45. Ahh yes the unbanning of tia. Didnt a certain europa trader supposedly get banned once and unbanned?or was that just some random tid bit i heard?
     
  46. Erekose

    Erekose Seasoned Veteran
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    I have known this person for years and that means outside the game as well. She was not involved in duping and she's not a 'buy and sell' merchant. There were many people there when she said what she said. I can't think of any other reason than she mentioned that a dupe bug exists.
     
  47. You did say that it was a guild hall that was deleted, correct? If that guild hall is like many others, are there guild items being stored there? Perhaps some of the items, or more likely, many of the items being stored there were duped? I am not saying this is the case nor accusing your friend of duping, but while you know her, do you also know all of the people in her guild as well as their friends? It is very possible that she could have been innocent and the items were placed in the guild hall without her knowing (or at least without her knowing they were duped), but just as with placing vendors at other's homes or having others place vendors at your own, you take chances when you trust people you don't really know (which is a sad situation, but unfortunately may very well be the truth).
     
  48. Erekose

    Erekose Seasoned Veteran
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    Anything is possible I'm sure, but it's not like they had tons of strange rares or chests full of runic kits and hammers. They kept basic stuff; leather and cotton for training crafters, repair deeds, stuff like that. I've been to their guildhall many times and there was nothing there that you'd normally see duped.