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@#$% random ore...arrggghh!

Discussion in 'UHall' started by Dor of Sonoma, Apr 8, 2009.

  1. Aight, I don't care much for whining, but I sure feel like indulging in some right now.

    I've been doggedly mining my lil' heart out since the random ore change, on my decade-old Grandmaster miner. Every day, I've been forcing myself to continue a pasttime that I had previously found to be relaxing and enjoyable for all of those years.

    Tonight, I had to log out in the middle of it. I can no longer convince myself that it is fun in any form. It has become tedious, frustrating, dull work, with no enjoyment or apparent reward.

    I shall miss mining. :-\
     
  2. Sweeney

    Sweeney Guest

    So you think it was better when you could recall to a valorite spot along with the scipters?
     
  3. Cear Dallben Dragon

    Cear Dallben Dragon Babbling Loonie
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    There are, and may always be, scripts that farm it.
    I see people all the time checking multiple spots, camping a certiany one, and going to the bank or house to drop. Im assumeing of couse, they script, but most attended players i meet respond to conversaion and dont walk over bagballs.
     
  4. Harlequin

    Harlequin Babbling Loonie
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    Prospector tools, gargoyle pickaxes and valorite ore elementals (25 valorite ore!) are your friends :D

    Wish there was something similar for lumberjacking.
     
  5. I have never recalled to any mining spots. I mine in a neglected area in Felucca, with just me, my horse and shovel. (I walk)

    There was only one scriptor at the edge (and she didn't know where my valorite spot was - heck, no one did). We killed her frequently, and All Was Well With The World.

    Now, there is still no one else mining where I do...and no ore to speak of, either.

    Tedious, empty and boring in the extreme.
     
  6. While I understand that such tools are welcomed by many, they are not for me. I would far rather be PKed, than have to deal with stupid monsters while I'm trying to mine! :)
     
  7. Joshua Ravenloft

    Joshua Ravenloft Journeyman
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    Scripting STILL goes on. After the change, they just had to rewrite it a little to be back up and running.......
     
  8. Sharantyr

    Sharantyr Guest

    Dor. I agree with you. I don't enjoy mining much now. For me it's the worst change to the game since AoS. 2 months ago I spent a couple of hours a day mining and got myself a nice stockpile and then closed my mining account.
     
  9. Bomb Bloke

    Bomb Bloke Lore Keeper
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    It's something that's been discussed quite a few times around here...

    First off, the change had nothing to do with scripters and everything to do with making the rare ores "rare". Unfortunately there was a side effect of making everyone with a bigass pile of the stuff already stockpiled way better off then everyone else. That coulda been avoided by wiping all the pre-mined ore, but I suppose it was decided that'd push many players too far.

    A lot of people welcomed the change as it gave them an excuse to use different mining spots. Go around and explore.

    But it makes it a heck of a lot harder to fill a ton of BODs, and the "exploration" aspect of things loses it's charm quickly if you mine often.

    The scripters didn't need to do a thing to adapt to it, but that's ok because the change wasn't aimed at them.

    Basically, if you want rare ore, you use the special tools. End of story. No, that doesn't mean you have to have combat skills on your miner; just make sure you've got plenty of room to run if need be, and remember that once you've led an elemental away you're free to return to the cliff face.

    That said, there's still a point to finding decent ore veins. As Basara has noted however many times now, some give out a heck of a lot more coloured ore per node respawn, so filling a rune book with such locations could be considered the closest you'll get to "the old way of doing things".
     
  10. Lord Gareth

    Lord Gareth UO Content Editor | UO Chesapeake & Rares News
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    Actually the change ONLY PROMOTED and HELPED SCRIPTERS. I know this because I cant get enough Val or ver ore to stock a vendor even with Garg pickaxes and a Prospect tool.

    Just listen.

    A script miner gets to mine ALL DAY without having to do anything

    a normal miner has to do it by hand.

    A script miner can do it all day every day and maybe one day bring in 10,000 Val ingots.

    While the hand miner can only produce 500 because he cant be on all day every single day to mine.

    At least with scripts we knew the spots and could block them. Now this change has only HELPED them and HURT us.
     
  11. Lady Aalia

    Lady Aalia Atlantic's Finest
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    I think that about boils it down....

    even mining for stone is a joke now, not even worth doing it in Trammel, i used to be able to keep a stone vendor filled by just mining in Trammel...now its near to impossible , even mining in Fell i cant get enough stone ...unless you talk the regular white stone
     
  12. onthefifty

    onthefifty Guest

    Tough call. i found as the op suggested that putting mining on my 120 swordsman at the expense of resists has up'd my intake of the rarer ores.
    i hold the museum ele slayer in my hand toggled and an ai in war mode, and mine with the gargoyle pick. unfortunately I had to drop resist spell to do this.

    i mine in the off hours and do find it relaxing, however i didn't play in the old days so i have nothing to compare my prsent method too.

    as to scripters... what can i say. some in my guild do it and most have been banned lately so i would suggest to you that paging still workks. i think the current dev's are taking a harder line here but i think current economics dictate only so much resources to this as they have other priorities for this game.

    combating scripting as a player base is quite simple really. i would use the approach of ''if it walks like a duck'' as gareth suggests, the honest miner knows how hard it is to accumulate 10,000 valorite so under that premise you would know full well who the vendor's are on your shard with the seemingly endless supply of valorite and should figure those to be aquired by dubious means.

    someone spoke of a stockpile here prior to the resource gathering changes. would someone be willing to opine how much of a valorite stockpile a player could have of valorite 100k, 1mln 10 mln? i'm curious.
     
  13. Bomb Bloke

    Bomb Bloke Lore Keeper
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    Prior to the change (which wasn't really that long ago when you consider the years the original coloured system was in place), you could recall to a given spot and be sure to get a given ore type there.

    So how much a given player "could" have? No upper limit, really. A million val ingots doesn't sound unreasonable for a 24/7 scripter, depending on how much they've sold since then.

    I can pull in about 3000 ingots (counting all colours) per hour, I think. So let's say a scripter can do around 72k per day (the actual figure will probably be higher). About 500k per week. 2mill per month. 24mill per year.

    So let's say they got, on average, 25% val and 75% plain ore (keeping in mind that under the old system, they could be sure to always hit val nodes). 6mill val a year?

    Now multiply that by however many bots a given scripter might have running, and that's a lot of ingots.
     
  14. Beer_Cayse

    Beer_Cayse Guest

    this is one of the reasons I finally packed in the last couple accounts. mining - for me - was a way to supply my smith with the needed ingredients to craft salable items. the inability to get a decent amount of high-end ores cost me more than I had figured on. <shrug>

    Same thing for lumberjacking ... what in the heck do I need with 100s of K of normal wood when I can't get more than 20 or so boards of even bloodwood at GM? Fooey.

    As for those who ask "would you want specific spots back?" the answer is yes, I would. I had some nice wilderness areas I could use for the rarer items when needed them and I could depend on getting what I needed, when I needed it.
     
  15. SC -20ish Earth Ele slayer bow with SSI on a miner with Magery will take care of those nasty monsters PDQ. Most times you don't even need to stop mining if you've got a decent suit of armor.
     
  16. Sarsmi

    Sarsmi Grand Poobah
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    You just need to change your tactics, there's nothing wrong with mining right now. You don't need to use a garg pickaxe, I only use them when I mine sometimes in delucia, so I can call guards on the elementals.

    With a prospectors tool you can check 50 nodes per tool, it will upgrade the node and tell you what it is. It's a wonderful tool for mining.

    I get lots more stone now, it is double in fel so I get either 3 or four (ok it's supposedly "double", I get either 3 or 4 as a human), and combined with the prospectors tool I can get all the stone I need for my vendors, where previously I could go through a whole book of ore types and only get a few stone.

    I don't get why people don't like this change, it's not hard to adjust to and it makes things more interesting as you visit new places to mine, get that nice little buzz when you discover a rich new vein, etc.

    If only lumberjacking were as fun and enjoyable!
     
  17. I've gotten more Heartwood, Bloodwood, and Frostwood from my single tree stump than from ALL of the lumberjacking I've done since the change was put in combined.
     
  18. Nine Dark Moons

    Nine Dark Moons Certifiable
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    Agreed. I used to find mining relaxing too. My miner had 2 books of her favorite spots for val, ver and shadow ore and she used to hack away and have a great time gathering her favorite ores. After the change she just got pack after pack of ugly ores she didn't want or need. She hasn't mined in over a year. It sucks.

    Edit - Sarsmi, thanks for the tip about the Prospector's Tool - I've never used one before. I'll give that a try and see if it brings any of the fun back into mining.
     
  19. Used to sell stone items and mine stone before they went random with ore spots, also did smith bods, I quit mining and if I need ingots I go to Luna and buy it. So far I use very little for most of my projects. I do miss mining and still have my library of ore books I made years ago.
     
  20. JC the Builder

    JC the Builder Crazed Zealot
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    If I mined, I would probably find it very frustrating to discover a valorite ore location only to have it disappear in the blink of an eye. Perhaps if they changed it so you could mine a dozen or more times from the location instead of once or twice, it would make finding the spots more worthwhile. But they would by no means be permanent. There could be a lot of tweaks done to make things more fun but they probably don't have the time. Less colored ore spots, make them last longer, higher chance to find in Felucca, a method of "maintaining" a spot so it will produce more colored ore, maybe change the spawn rate from 15 minutes to 2 hours, etc.

    They went from a system that was supposed to switch up the locations every few months (but was broken so it didn't do so) to one where it changes every time you mine.
     
  21. Gheed

    Gheed Certifiable
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    /signed I don't enjoy it any more either. Come on devs new accounts can't mine colored ore now right? Revert!... and take resources out of community collections.
     
  22. TheScoundrelRico

    TheScoundrelRico Stratics Legend
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    The funny thing is, I recently started a mule on Siege and have started collecting resources. Mining is easy, so it's more random...big deal. It actually makes you go to other places than the runed big ticket ore locations. It actually makes it a challange...la
     
  23. Tina Small

    Tina Small Stratics Legend
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    Last week I spent a bit of time finishing up mining on a 3-year old character on a shard I don't play very often. She doesn't have a fire beetle, so I kind of dread mining with her and her pack animals.

    I actually ended up enjoying very much the process of getting her mining from 95 to 100 because of all the verite and valorite I found. I'm still mining most of those spots this week because apparently no one else has found them yet. What absolutely flabbergasted me was how a fair number of the spots would revert back to dull copper after a few days of mining them and then change back to verite or valorite on the next visit. (I wanted dull copper too, so I just threw the "verite" or "valorite" runes in my dull copper book when it seemed like they had switched to dull, instead of throwing them in the pile of runes to mark over with new locations. Had a nice smile on my face when those spots switchbed back to verite or valorite when I was expecting dull copper.)

    When the randomization change first went into effect, I had serious reservations about it. But now I am very happy about it, even for lumberjacking. I've found that if I put in the effort to find a book or two of spots for high-end ore or lumber, the spots generally last long enough to make me feel like I didn't waste my time finding them. I wouldn't mind something like a prospecting tool for lumberjacking, but not having one hasn't prevented me from finding bloodwood, heartwood, frostwood, and yew wood.
     
  24. Gheed

    Gheed Certifiable
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    Alot of folks say things like this when they occasionally mine or just start out mining. For people (some people... not all) that mine and smith as their main style of game play, we couldn't be more annoyed. Non random ore spawns (the old way) forces people to explore the land looking for new locations. Random ore allows you to run the same track daily looking for what's changed.

    The "big ticket" locations were originally kept in check by demand and not scripted much because of this. Val ingots were for the ultra rare BoD, enhancing, or to obtain a specific look on your toon. There just wasn't a high demand. Shadow ore however was scripted heavily for quick turn around on NPC gold (millions/day). I would always find those spots scripted heavily...

    I'm not a fan of mage style templates. Weapons; swords, maces, bows and the like. Thats what I use. Chiv/necro is about as much magic using I do. And I only use those spells that augment my template's ability to use weapons. I find it annoying that I have to keep magery on my template to mark rare spots I find or just memorize a pre-marked track... that actually is encouragement not make you go to other places.

    Crafting is now completely RNG from start to finish. I have mixed feelings on imbuing.. it's just one tiny change away from completely replacing all crafting skills and the need for resources to create items... which scares me. But at least RNG and crafting is finally taking a different direction.

    In respect to the folks that occasionally mine... and the folks that mine a lot that do like random ore spawns and using tools... well.. if ore was not random... is it too much of a hassle not to mark their spots and randomly walk about the land looking for the ore they want?
     
  25. Beer_Cayse

    Beer_Cayse Guest

    annnnndddd I used to double-jump veins using garg pickaxe and prospector tool. acquiring any high-end ore was still well below any acceptable level. and if I was going to use the pickaxe, I would also be in gz for calls if needed.

    making a something "rare" is one thing ... making it damn near impossible to get is another.
     
  26. Mining does take up more time these days no doubt. for me it does anyway. but my miner has always been an archer, so mining is a blast to this day. i use garg picks and mine up the elems for xtra ore. at 1st i made a reg mule type miner and every time i mined for extended periods of time i'd end up fallin face 1st into my keyboard after about 30 mins. with my archer/miner the chance of pullin an elly has always given me a little thrill and kept me from fallin asleep. heh.

    the random resource change imo did nothing but help scripters and turn a leisurely fun thing into a tedious 'job' tho for the most part. and dont get me started on lumberjacking! i have yet to find a single frostwood spot since the change. kinda stupid when you think frostwood trees would probably be pretty damn obvious in color if ya ask me. oh well. just my 2 cents and beyond that i just keep on rollin with it cuz in the end i will always love uo.

    rolleyes:
     
  27. Harlequin

    Harlequin Babbling Loonie
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    Extra tips -

    1) Verite and valortie spots change very quickly, however, agapite spots remain for much much longer. Use a garg pickaxe in conjunction with a prospector's tool to bump it up to valorite

    2) Besides getting the gargoyle pickaxes via BOD rewards, they can be farmed off gargoyles. I camp hyloth for daemons and gargoyles to gain fame/karma/arties/gargoyle pickaxes/normal gems/gold. I admit that there are better ways to farm fame/karma/gold, but none will give me gargoyle pickaxes and arties at the same time. Because I am also switching between daemons and gargoyles, I also seem to get arties faster. So I'm killing multiple birds with 1 stone and saving time :D

    3) As Connor says, a mage weapon elemental slayer bow works great. Use a couple of +magery jewels to offset the -magery

    4) Like how dex determines a mobs' speed, their int seems to determine their pathfinding ability. Ore elementals aren't very bright and are slow, +1 for using a bow

    5) Valorite elementals reflect all melee/bow damage that you do, a miner with low dex and tactics in this case works well because you actually get a chance to heal yourself +2 for using a bow

    6) They have problems getting past the steps of player houses, and gets stuck like the animals/npcs that loves to block your recall spot. So just plink away with your mw bow, +3 for using a bow. This is another instance where you can turn something annoying into something you can use beneficially

    7) The types of coloured ingots I use most are dull (for filling bods), shadow (for swampy armour), bronze (for tinkering golems), gold (for enhancing luck) and valorite (for enhancing resists). So this is how I upgrade my ore -

    Iron gets upgraded to dull via prospector's tool
    Dull gets upgraded to shadow via prospector's tool
    Shadow I leave alone
    Copper gets upgraded to bronze via prospector's tool
    Bronze gets upgraded to gold via prospector's tool
    Gold I leave alone
    Agapite gets upgraded to valorite via prospector's tool and gargoyle pickaxe
    Verite gets upgraded to valorite via gargoyle pickaxe
    Valorite I leave alone

    I save my gargoyle pickaxes to spawn valorite elementals and farm them for an easy 25 valorite ore. I always pick up prospertor's tools that people throw away at the smithy :D

    8) 1 fire beetle plus 2 packies work wonderfully. I have a UO macro to use last item on last target for mining and lumberjacking. And I have a UOA macro to smelt large ore on my beetle. Once my weight turns red (from the UOA indicator) I will hit the UOA smelt macro. This way my last target doesn't get messed up and force me to retarget the mining spot again. Just note that if you are overweight, the ingots that you smelt drops to the ground

    9) Sometimes, if you hit the smelt macro at the wrong time or due to lag, the smelting cursor targets your last target (meaning your last mining spot). When this happens, the ore isn't smelted. If you dbl it again, it will say "Someone is already using that". In this situation, it takes about a minute for the server to timeout your pending smelting attempt. To bypass this, dbl click any smaller ore of the same type and click on the large ore. This will combine the ore and make them all smaller pieces, and you can smelt them now.

    10) The smaller pieces of ore are actually very useful. They are the lightest, and changing the big ores into small ones makes them lighter overall. Useful if you don't have a firebeetle and are using 5 packies to hold the ore until you reach a public forge.

    11) To gain mining quicker, smelt the hardest ores that your skill allows you to, 1 piece at a time. If you are working on gaining mining, remove your mining gloves and Jacob's pickaxe (Haven newbie quest that gives +10 mining, though it doesn't allow you to go above 100 mining unlike the gloves).
     
  28. Stupid Miner

    Stupid Miner Guest

    Really? I actually enjoy mining more now than before...
     
  29. Setnaffa

    Setnaffa Certifiable
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    I'm with you on this one. I don't mine at all anymore because it has lost all sense of fun for me. The only players collecting Valorite (and even Verite) in any quantity are still the scripters (regardless of Prospector's or Gargoyle's tools) because they don't care if it takes 1,000 attempts to get some Valorite. They just run their bot 24/7.

    They went from too static to too random on the ore spots. Originally, ore spots were supposed to have a small random chance of change; usually about once a month. There was obviously a bug in that code, so the ore types remained static. Now they've set it to change almost every time you clear out a spot.

    We had a similar thread about a month ago where the idea of letting ore spots keep their current ore for about a week. Normal miners would know a spot would be good for the rest of the week, while scripters would be too lazy to bother changing their script.
     
  30. Borric

    Borric Seasoned Veteran
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    Hi Dor!

    I am right there with you. What used to be fun and profitable is now work, and not fun or profitable. Even when I manage to get some high end ores, the cost in time, for me, is far more than what the scriptors sell it for. Its even worse with lumber jacking. Like Connor said, more frostwood comes from one stump than a years worth of chopping trees.

    Sympathetically yours,
    Borric
     
  31. UOKaiser

    UOKaiser Guest

    Not profitable? What shard you in?
     
  32. Borric

    Borric Seasoned Veteran
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    Great Lakes. When I spend 4-6 hours mining, and get maybe 100 valorite ingots, I feel its not worth it for the 35k they sell for. We all know that much gold can be had in mere minutes farming say white wyrms, or even ogre lords.

    Borric
     
  33. UOKaiser

    UOKaiser Guest

    K checking great lakes. Looks like a mix of prices 300k per 1k to 650k per 1k. Now it looks like 300k is a low ball price for that shard. Want to make a quick 100k? Buy out those that are selling it for 300k and sell it for 350k. Want to make more buy out the 300k and 350k and sell it for 400k. Thats the resellers game.
    In the mean time you can mine and just use youre supplies to fill what you need or store them for rainy days while making money of the people who dare to sell it cheaper than the average going rate. Just takes a little research to see what the average prices are in youre shard. Head to high traffic area and drop youre products there. As long as you do that scripters and other players cant make a dent to you.
     
  34. Sarsmi

    Sarsmi Grand Poobah
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    I have mined a dozen or so times from the same vein many times. I've also mined a couple out and it would switch. It's really a mix of the two.
     
  35. You are assuming that you can easily convert the scarce high-end ores into ingots - when/if you manage to find any of the ores to mine in the first place.

    When you couple the scarcity of ore with the obscenely high failure rate at ingot conversion, you are left with f-all more often than not.
     
  36. Thav12

    Thav12 Seasoned Veteran
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    I think it is much better this way. Scripting is irrelevant to the discussion by the way. This way, your preious valorite is actually just that: precious. Before, I was always sort of miffed by the fact that a rare ore was not rare. The rune to the spot was rare. Once you had a book full, you could go out to mine say valorite. Now at least the valorite you do dig up actually means something.

    As to why scripting is irrelevant, the relative rarity of the particular ore is dictated by the server, so relative to all the other ore that is mined, regardless of the actual quantity, certain types are going to be less prevalent. In absolute counts the scripters always win, but that has not changed at all since this change, and it does not affect honest miners at all any different from before.
     
  37. Dermott of LS

    Dermott of LS UOEC Modder
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    ...

    Personally, I like mining a LOT better since the change. From my experience, I have seen LESS scripters and the use of Prosp Tools (which are easy enough to come by and last quite a while) makes the general "distribution" of ore do very well.

    The thing is that the way mining stands currently favors the "strip mining" system with the use of a fire beetle over the older targeted system (which is why I see less scripters... yes, I know they are still around, but they have changed AWAY from where I mine because the "guaranteed" veins are no longer there).

    The couple of things that are left to improve mining would be to:

    1. Put the ML gems as possible loot on Ore elems
    2. Redo Dull Copper elem loot to include 25 Large DC ore

    Beyond that, mining is fine IMO. Unless I'm out of Sturdy Shovels, I always spend a portion of my UO gametime making a specific mining run (in Fel no less) and have seen a good return on the time invested (since I am using it to stockpile ingots, gems and stone).
     
  38. Dermott of LS

    Dermott of LS UOEC Modder
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    ...

    If I mined, I would probably find it very frustrating to discover a valorite ore location only to have it disappear in the blink of an eye.

    I've found the spots I mine in Felucca to be more stable than those in Trammel. Generally the area I mine in Fel changes once every day or so as a whole (and a few veins individually during mining) whereas in Tram they seem to change MUCH more often.
     
  39. Basara

    Basara UO Forum Moderator
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    BTW, one of the best, least-utilized guard zone mining areas (for ore elementals) in the Trammel ruleset is Umbra, as you can mine the rim of the moat, as well as the mountain face in town, and are never more than a few steps from a guard zone at the times you aren't actually inside the zone. That way, you fight the elementals from the Garg picks, then if things go badly, you can take a couple steps and have it guard-whacked, if it's too dangerous (you don't get ore, but you get your life). And, to an extent, it's probably good for the same reasons on SP, for combatting PKs. If you see them coming (or they attack), step away into the guard zone.

    As for smelting...

    If you smelt high-end ores in smaller piles, you'll get more ore back, over time.

    Sure, if you succeed the first time on a pile of 100 Val, you get 200 ingots, but if you fail once, it's 100, twice 50, 3 times 25.

    The ingot return is NOT a function - it is discontinuous (you can't get any number from 51%-99% back on a failure). So attempts by people to claim that there is no difference in small or large smelts, fail because their assertion is based on a false notion of how the math works. What DOES happen, though, is that smaller batches will get you returns closer to your expected mean, instead of being guaranteed to not reach the mean if you fail the first smelt on a single file, because you automatically drop to 50% return from the original amount at best.

    If Smelting worked like cooking stacked raw fish steaks (each item is considered a separate check for the skill, for gains and for each item, so at low levels you almost never get the same amount of cooked steaks back from piles of equal amounts), then there would be no difference in the long run, for smelting. but, not with the current smelting system.

    From the mining FAQ:

    In the end the OVERALL gain rate from Valorite ore to ingots will be about 64.5% (at GM Mining).

    52%*2+(48%*52%*1) = average ingot payout per large ore, smelted individually.
    1.04 + 0.2496 = 1.2896 ingots.

    In other words smelting 1000 valorite ore pieces individually will on average give some 1290 valorite ingots (doing the same for the equivalent 2000 small ore would only return 1040 ingots on average). The numbers change slightly as your piles get larger.

    4 ore example:

    (52%*8)+(48%*52%*4)+(48%*48%*52%*2)+(48%*48*48%*52 *1) = average payout for 4 ore smelting.

    4.16+0.9984+0.239616+0.05750784 = 5.45552384, or an average of 1.36388096 ingots per ore.


    HOWEVER, this is misleading to an extent. If one fails 4 times in a row, smelting 4 ore, 1 at a time, one loses 2 ore completely, but still has a chance of getting 1-4 ingots from the remaining two ore. If one fails 4 times in a row on a pile of 4 ore, smelted as a unit, one is left with ZERO ingots. Given that the UO Random number generator is excessively prone to streaks (granted, ones that can be either to your detriment or benefit), it all comes down to a form of loss prevention decision.

    Either you can smelt high-end ore in smaller numbers, sacrificing the chance for maximum gain, to get something closer to the expected average ingots returned,

    OR....

    You can go all at once, hoping for a 100% return, but risking an automatic loss of 50% on one failure, 75% on 2 failures, 87.5% on 3 failures, etc.

    One should EXPECT the number of successes and failures to balance out in the end, but one has to consider one usually does not have the same number of ore, each smelt. Failing once on a 1000 ore smelt, statistically, is the still the same as failing on a 1 ore smelt, despite the fact one has a loss of 1000 ingots potential, and the other, only 1. Choosing a set amount to smelt at one time, you can limit your short-term losses, by forcing your results to more closely approach the mean (theoretical average).

    *************

    Real in-game Example:
    It is near certain that one will get over 1000 ingots from smelting 1000 Valorite ore, in groups of 4. In fact, the average amount one will get back is about 1364 (1363.88).
    However, smelting the pile as a whole, gives you a 52% chance of getting 2000 ingots, BUT a 48% chance of getting 1000 or less! In fact, there is about an 11% chance that you will get 250 ingots or less (a little under the odds of flipping 3 heads in a row on a coin, which is 12.5%).

    If one is needing to fill a 10-count Exceptional Valorite Plate LBOD for a Verite Hammer, one will need at least 1000 ingots. Which is the method most likely to give you the ingots you need, without having to go back and mine more?
     
  40. Whinemaker

    Whinemaker Guest

    Hi,

    I agree with you as well. I don't get to play often (a few hours each month?), and I kind of find the change a bit punishing for the non-regulars. Back then, I could just do a quick mining run when I needed a certain type of ingot for enhancing or filling a BOD, without having to worry too much about its compromising whatever time I have left for adventuring. Now, mining is just something I dread because, at least to me personally, it has becoming waaaaaaaaaaay too time consuming.

    Plus, well, err, I never managed to find anything above gold during those 10 hours or so I actually spent on mining after the change. Just my stinking luck I guess.

    I would rather they made the veins change colour every time they restock, so that I could at least have the peace of mind knowing that no matter where I go I would always have a 1.4% chance of hitting valorite, instead of the 0.14% chance right now (roll to reset vein = 10%; roll for valorite = 1.4%; 10% x 1.4% = 0.14%... got the numbers from a Japanese site).

    I like both ideas.
     
  41. Harlequin

    Harlequin Babbling Loonie
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    Good numbers! Yup, smelting individually will get you closer to the mean and ultimately, more val ingots.

    The thing about smelting is that Murphy's law comes into play - if something can go wrong, it will go wrong at the worst possible moment. Meaning you will fail only when you try to smelt a big stack :D

    Not sure if it's my luck, I also fail alot more if I smelt huge pile of ore on the floor. If I split them into smaller stacks that can fit in my backpack and smelt them there, I fail less.

    So playing the odds, what I do is split my huge pile of ore into binary stacks - IE 1, 2, 4, 8. Then smelt the smaller stacks first, until I hit 2 or 3 failures consecutively, then I smelt the largest stack I have. Works well so far. I did get burned a couple of times, but it works out quite well overall.

    Reasoning: When you hit 2 failures, the chances of failing the 3rd time is [0.5 * 0.48 * 0.48 = 0.11]. Meaning if you have failed twice already, chances of failing again is only 11%. 11% chance of failure also means 89% chance of success.

    If you wait for 3 consecutive fails, the chances of failing a 4th time is [0.48 * 0.48 * 0.48 * 0.48 = 0.053]. That's a 5% chance of failure and 95% chance of success.

    Edit : Sorry, my math is flawed, chances of success on each try remains the same no matter how many times you have consecutively failed before. See Sweeney's and Bomb Bloke's explanation below :D
     
  42. Sweeney

    Sweeney Guest

    Eh by your logic many people have lost money.

    If the coin lands heads 2000x in a row, the chance it will hit heads next time is... 50%.

    You're using superstition to justify math, which is a deadly sin in my world.

    Separating stacks is a good idea, it's annoying but it cuts down on wasted ingots.



    Don't believe the mumbo-jumbo of people who throw numbers at you!
     
  43. Xel The Wanderer

    Xel The Wanderer Lore Keeper
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    If I could throw an energy bolt at a mountain in order to get ore, granite, gems, minerals, whatever, I'd be "mining" in a heartbeat. With that said, I salute you fine folks who've mined, lumberjacked, tailored, fished, and whatever else that I missed. For you have a higher threshold of patience than I do! :thumbup:
     
  44. Harlequin

    Harlequin Babbling Loonie
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    It's actually a study into probability :D

    Here's one that will really bake your cookie:

    1) There are 3 boxes in front of you, one of them has a prize, the other 2 are empty.

    2) You choose box A. Box B is now opened to reveal that it's empty.

    3) So the prize is either in A or C. You are now given a chance to change your choice, should you stick with your chosen box, or should you change?

    4) More importantly, are you sure chosing from that 2 remaining boxes is a 50/50 chance?


    The answer is, switching actually gives you a higher probability of get the prize. You will understand if you map out all 3 possibilities. For the explanation:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

    Disclaimer - What Sweeney says is true also, you can in theory get 1000 heads in 1000 coin throws. Probability is just that, a chance of something happening. While not superstition, is definitely no guarantee :)

    Edit : Sorry, my math is flawed, chances of success on each try remains the same no matter how many times you have consecutively failed before. See Sweeney's and Bomb Bloke's explanation below :D
     
  45. Sweeney

    Sweeney Guest

    Yes that is a classic confusion problem and well documented.. but has nothing to do with smelting ore. It is the same chance no matter how many failures/successes you have had in a row. 62% smelting on Valorite is 62% no matter how many times you fail.
     
  46. Bomb Bloke

    Bomb Bloke Lore Keeper
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    Sweeney is correct.

    Consider this scenario with the view that the fourth trial will be a success:

    0.48 * 0.48 * 0.48 * 0.52 = 0.0575

    So that's about a ~5.31% chance of failing four times and about a ~5.75% chance of failing three times and winning on the last.

    So where's the other ~88.94% go?

    Well, that accounts for your chance of getting the first three consecutive failures in a row. But if you're already at the stage of making that fourth trial, then that's already happened - it's a 100% chance that the last three failed unless you somehow make a time machine - so that percentage can be discounted.

    Which means you're left with a 52% chance of success and a 48% chance of failure on that last attempt.

    0.0575 / (0.0575 + 0.0531) = 0.52
    0.0531 / (0.0575 + 0.0531) = 0.48
     
  47. Harlequin

    Harlequin Babbling Loonie
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    Actually, your mention of coins reminded me of an old discussion, and you are right! The chances of success remains the same no matter how many times you throw the coin, my bad!
     
  48. Harlequin

    Harlequin Babbling Loonie
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    Yeah, I just realized it a bit too late, my math was wrong :p

    The coin flip example reminded me belatedly of an old discussion I had (I was wrong then too lol). Sorry for the confusion people! :bowdown: Have edited my 2 previous posts to avoid confusing other people heh.

    See kids? That's why you should go to school! To learn from other people's mistakes :D
     
  49. Bomb Bloke

    Bomb Bloke Lore Keeper
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    The Hall problem was an interesting read, but to get the correct answer you need to read the wording very carefully - it relies on there being a "guarenteed" success behind a certain door, and sure chance that the host will have opened a door that doesn't reveal the prize.

    My bet is the main controversy over it is when people fail to get the wording "just right" while asking the question.

    Anyway, frequency probability is the relevant math here - the more trials you run, the closer your results will be to the proposed odds. That is to say, if you do one smelt, your results will either be 100% success or 100% failure. After ten thousand smelts, your success/failure ratio will be much closer to that of whatever your "case by case" chances are "supposed" to be.

    (This is why people lose at casinos - They go in, bet, win, and think they're onto something. But the longer they keep playing, the closer their win/lose ratio will conform to their chances of winning/losing any given hand. Given that every hand is weighted against them, that means the longer they play, the more they will lose - you are only ever likely to win in the short term).
     
  50. Basara

    Basara UO Forum Moderator
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    There is one other consideration.

    We already know from numerous player tests, that the UO Random Number Generator is NOT a fair die. It's RNG seed method is prone to streaks of similar numbers, though because of the streaks being able to occur at all points, it averages out over thousands of samples.

    However, that doesn't help you in the short term.

    People have had some success (and of course, also got burned) trying to second-guess the streakiness of the RNG. That's why I don't recommend any "wait x failures then smelt big" ideas, and suggest 4, 8, 16 or 32 - unit smelts to minimize risk (and to get you something more akin to the mean of the non-continuous equation that is trying to smelt a whole pile at once)

    64 large ore (2^6) takes 8 failures to have it hit zero return - and I've had it happen with ores I was supposed to be 80% to smelt, MANY more times than a fair RNG should allow (I think my worst instance was 3 times in 1 month, back in the days when you could recall to spots as needed) - this with a character that would normally only mine about 10-20k ingots of all kinds combined in a week. That broke me of any notion that the RNG was fair for short-term use (0.2^8 = 0.000256% - something that should probably be occuring on a shard 1 time per year to a random character, not to the same character 3 times in 30 days).

    I'd much rather have a 98% chance of 1100-1400 ingots, than a 52% chance of 2000, with the other 48% 1000 or less....