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Studded Leather: An Analysis, By Kral

Discussion in 'UO Craftsman' started by Feenicks, Apr 13, 2001.

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  1. Feenicks

    Feenicks Seasoned Veteran
    Stratics Veteran Stratics Legend

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    Special thanks to <font color=red>Kral</font color=red> for this amazing analysis of success rates etc on studded leather manufacture. Some things may have changed slightly since various publishes but the data should still give a decent indication or what to expect.

    Here it is, nice and sticky.
    [image]/shared/forum_images/beige/icons/smile.gif">
    ===============================================


    Here it is reprinted. This time, CAN SOMEONE PLEASE ADD THE RESULTS TO THE FAQ OR SOMETHING?? I didn't waste all the time writing it just to see the same questions asked over and over again. :>
    [some outdated reference to faction pricing deleted - 25/4/01 Feen]

    ------------------------

    It seems we've all been going on guesswork for quite some time as to the failure rate with studded leather items, the number of hides required to create a full set, and how to go about the creation in a profitable manner. I did some testing this morning on the faction test center (since they added free hides) to try and solve this. I created 100 of each item and recorded the exact results. These trials occured between approximately 9am 7/27/2000 and 12pm 7/27/2000. I personally think eating has nothing to do with success rates (this is a separate research project though) but I ate after every 10 items in order to keep those that think eating counts from discounting the results. The raw data will be included at the end of this post or in another post if it won't allow them to be that long. Refer back to it to see where my results are coming from. Please check my work as well incase I made some miscalculation. Brace yourself, this is going to get mathy. ;)

    Ps, if you've found this useful and would like to tip me for the research work, just add to the gold pile at my house in Trammel on Napa Valley at 90 36'N 62 22'E, thanks :) (NOTE: I no longer live there, that's my house from a year ago.. Just tip Belan the noble looter when you get a chance. ;))

    First of all, here are the success rates for creating GM studded items as derived from the success totals in the data:

    gorget: 47%
    gloves: 43%
    sleeves: 30%
    leggings: 22%
    tunic: 16%

    Before I go further, we must address the issue of weather to recycle failures (normal and low-quality items) or to sell them to NPC's. Many of you that are blacksmiths are familiar with this method, however it doesn't hold for tailoring. The price that NPC's will pay for items fluxuates, so I tried to record what seems to be the average I could get. Let's look at tunics for an example. The NPC's I asked would buy my low quality tunics for 46 gold and normal quality tunics for 59 gold. Instead of selling them, I can recycle them to produce 7 hides each. Since NPC's will buy leather gloves for 34 gold, and it takes 3 hides to make each one, that means I can make 79 gold off the recycled tunic and hopefully more if I can make more than 11.3 gold per hide by selling to players. It is pretty clear that a 79 gold profit is better than a 59 gold profit (or less for low quality tunics), meaning we should recycle these tunics instead of selling. The same is true for the other items, although normal quality gloves can still sometimes return slightly better than 11.3 gold per hide when sold to NPC's. Occasionally the NPC's will offer an excellent price and other items (excluding low quality items) will have a price per hide slightly above 11.3. However, as tailors, we should be able to get more than the base 11.3 gold per hide so making an exception for gloves and these rare deals isn't worth the effort, especially considering it is only normal quality that yield profit and are also very dependant on the NPC's current mood. The conclusion is that recycling all failed tailoring goods is justified.

    Now that we've decided we need to recycle all our failures, let's figure out how many hides we use (taking into account recycling) to produce one GM studded set on average. First, look at my raw data, the "Totals" section of each item. We will normalize the results based on only 1 studded item being produced to figure out what fraction of the other items (low-quality, normal-quality, and failures (lost hides)) were produced to make that 1 item. This requires dividing the normal, low, and failure counts by the studded item count and multiplying the failures by the average number of hides lost per failure. If this sounds confusing, look at where the equation's numbers are coming from in the data to make it clearer. The number of items (and failures) produced in making a studded set is therefore:

    1 GM studded gorget
    34/47 normal studded gorgets
    13/47 low quality studded gorgets
    (6/47)*(6/6) wasted hides

    1 GM studded gloves
    30/43 normal studded gloves
    12/43 low quality studded gloves
    (15/43)*(20/15) wasted hides

    1 GM studded sleeves
    27/30 normal studded sleeves
    18/30 low quality studded sleeves
    (25/30)*(40/25) wasted hides

    1 GM studded leggings
    27/22 normal studded leggings
    20/22 low quality studded leggings
    (31/22)*(78/31) wasted hides

    1 GM studded tunic
    24/16 normal studded tunics
    17/16 low quality studded tunics
    (43/16)*(150/43) wasted hides

    From these numbers, we can easily figure out the number of hides required. Note that the first term is the number of hides used to make the GM studded item (1*6 in the case of a studded gorget), the second term is the fractional amount of normal and low quality items produced multiplied by the number of hides that are eaten by recycling (since we only recover half when we recycle) and the third term is the number of hides lost to complete failures.

    Hides used to make a GM studded gorget (recycling): 1*6+(6-3)*((34/47)+(13/47))+(6/47)*(6/6) = 9.128
    Hides used to make a GM studded gloves (recycling): 1*8+(8-4)*((30/43)+(12/43))+(15/43)*(20/15) = 12.372
    Hides used to make a GM studded sleeves (recycling): 1*10+(10-5)*((27/30)+(18/30))+(25/30)*(40/25) = 18.833
    Hides used to make a GM studded leggings (recycling): 1*12+(12-6)*((27/22)+(20/22))+(31/22)*(78/31) = 28.364
    Hides used to make a GM studded tunic (recycling): 1*14+(14-7)*((24/16)+(17/16))+(43/16)*(150/43) = 41.313

    Total: 110.010 hides required per GM studded set (recycling).

    To continue the analysis, we can find the number of item attempts it requires to create a studded set as well as an estimate at the minimum time required to create a studded set:

    Attempts required (gorget): 1+34/47+13/47+6/47 = 2.128
    Attempts required (gloves): 1+30/43+12/43+15/43 = 2.326
    Attempts required (sleeves): 1+27/30+18/30+25/30 = 3.333
    Attempts required (leggings): 1+27/22+20/22+31/22 = 4.545
    Attempts required (tunic): 1+24/16+17/16+43/16 = 6.250

    Attempts required total: 18.582 attempted item creations per GM studded set.

    Time estimate per attempt via macroing with UOA: I managed 7 attempts in 31 seconds, so 4.429 seconds per attempt
    Estimated time required per studded set (ignoring recycling leftovers): 18.582*4.429 = 82.300 seconds

    Now, as for how to price GM studded sets. It is shown that the optimal route is to recycle our failures, which sets the number of hides required to make a studded set on average at 110.
    In order to price the studded set for sale to players, we must set the price based on effort and price per hide. The marketplace fixes the price of a hide to at least 11.3 gold for tailors (as you can sell leather gloves for 34 each to NPC's, etc etc) so for the raw materials alone to break even with the NPC market, the price would be 1243 gold. Now in order to price the finished goods, we need to add on an amount to justify selling to players instead of to NPC's and optionally an amount taking into account the extra effort involved in creating studded (like blacksmiths do with plate, but less as it isn't as difficult). The additional cost added by the effort involved will differ from tailor to tailor as each tailor has their own idea of what is a reasonable markup for profit. I had previously tried to explain this and met with a lot of hostility for some reason. :) The next section will try and deal with that.

    Even if you are GM tailor, studded is NOT free to you. This is a common misconception even though it shouldn't be. People have argued that since they collected the hides themselves and made the suit themselves, it only cost them the 6 gold for the sewing kit so even if they sell the studded at 7 gold, they have made a profit. This line of thinking completely ignores the fact that hides are worth a bunch of money and that it took them a lot of time to collect the materials and make the suit. You can easily sell the hides to other tailors for 5 gold a piece, or you can sell them to NPC's for 11.3 gold a piece in the form of leather gloves. That makes the value of the materials in a studded suit either 550 gold or 1243 gold, depending on which mode of buisness you prefer. If you instead use the hides yourself and sell the finished goods for 7 gold each, that's an awful lot of gold you are missing out on. These tailors are also neglecting the amount of time it took for them to get all the hides and produce all the studded leather sets. Your time is hopefully worth something to you. The best response I've seen was from Krenklim, go check it out at "http://boards.stratics.com/cgi-bin/boards/uo/showthreaded.pl?Cat=21&Board=uotailor&Number=397678&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&vc=1#Post397678". GM blacksmiths and GM alchemists know that they can sell plate or deadly poison to players and get much more than they would selling items made with the same materials to NPC's. Their prices are set accordingly. For some reason though, GM tailors often sell studded to players for much less than the NPC's would pay for other items using the same materials. You need to sell at more than 1243 gold per studded set in order to make it worthwhile to sell to players instead of NPC's. Yes, it's fun to sell to players, yes you can afford to give things away, yes it's neat to see people wearing your armor, but really, why insist on selling at less than market prices to do so? No one else does.


    CONCLUSIONS


    It is best to recycle all failures made when creating a studded set instead of selling back to NPC's.

    A studded suit requires 110 hides with recycling.

    You must sell to players at more than 1243 to beat just selling to NPC's. I'd reccomend 1500.

    You can have fun and enjoy selling to players without selling lower than what the NPC's would pay. Just ask blacksmiths and alchemists. :)

    The success rates for items are:
    gorget: 47%
    gloves: 43%
    sleeves: 30%
    leggings: 22%
    tunic: 16%


    DATA



    Research: Studded Gorget

    Key:
    l = low quality produced
    n = normal quality produced
    f (x) = failed and lost x hides
    s = success

    Trials: 100
    Method: Attempted to produce studded gorget.. Attempted to eat fishsteaks until no more could be eaten every 10 attempts

    ---------------
    (full)
    1 s
    2 s
    3 n
    4 n
    5 n
    6 s
    7 n
    8 n
    9 n
    10 n
    (too full)
    11 f 1
    12 n
    13 s
    14 s
    15 s
    16 n
    17 n
    18 s
    19 n
    20 n
    (stuffed)
    21 s
    22 s
    23 s
    24 s
    25 n
    26 f 1
    27 n
    28 n
    29 n
    30 f 1
    (too full)
    31 s
    32 s
    33 s
    34 n
    35 l
    36 s
    37 s
    38 n
    39 s
    40 n
    (full)
    41 s
    42 s
    43 s
    44 l
    45 f 1
    46 n
    47 l
    48 n
    49 l
    50 s
    (too full)
    51 s
    52 s
    53 s
    54 n
    55 n
    56 s
    57 s
    58 s
    59 s
    60 n
    (full)
    61 n
    62 l
    63 n
    64 f 1
    65 s
    66 n
    67 s
    68 l
    69 l
    70 l
    (too full)
    71 l
    72 s
    73 s
    74 l
    75 s
    76 l
    77 n
    78 s
    79 l
    80 s
    (full)
    81 s
    82 s
    83 n
    84 n
    85 n
    86 s
    87 s
    88 s
    89 s
    90 f 1
    (too full)
    91 n
    92 s
    93 l
    94 s
    95 n
    96 n
    97 s
    98 s
    99 s
    100 s

    Totals:
    s = 47
    n = 34
    l = 13
    f = 6
    failed hides total = 6

    Stats:
    Requires = 6
    Recycle = 3
    NPC sell low = 27
    NPC sell normal = 34
    NPC sell high = 39



    Research: Studded Gloves

    Key:
    l = low quality produced
    n = normal quality produced
    f (x) = failed and lost x hides
    s = success

    Trials: 100
    Method: Attempted to produce studded gloves.. Attempted to eat fishsteaks until no more could be eaten every 10 attempts

    ---------------
    (stuffed)
    1 l
    2 l
    3 s
    4 s
    5 s
    6 n
    7 s
    8 s
    9 l
    10 l
    (too full)
    11 n
    12 f 2
    13 s
    14 l
    15 n
    16 n
    17 s
    18 l
    19 f 2
    20 s
    (stuffed)
    21 s
    22 s
    23 l
    24 l
    25 f 1
    26 n
    27 s
    28 s
    29 f 1
    30 s
    (stuffed)
    31 s
    32 s
    33 s
    34 s
    35 s
    36 s
    37 n
    38 s
    39 s
    40 n
    (too full)
    41 s
    42 f 1
    43 n
    44 s
    45 n
    46 n
    47 n
    48 s
    49 s
    50 s
    (too full)
    51 f 1
    52 s
    53 s
    54 l
    55 s
    56 n
    57 s
    58 n
    59 f 2
    60 n
    (too full)
    61 s
    62 n
    63 s
    64 f 2
    65 l
    66 f 1
    67 f 1
    68 f 1
    69 s
    70 n
    (stuffed)
    71 s
    72 s
    73 s
    74 n
    75 n
    76 s
    77 s
    78 n
    79 f 2
    80 s
    (too full)
    81 n
    82 n
    83 n
    84 s
    85 n
    86 n
    87 n
    88 n
    89 l
    90 f 1
    (stuffed)
    91 n
    92 f 1
    93 s
    94 f 1
    95 s
    96 s
    97 n
    98 n
    99 l
    100 n

    Totals:
    s = 43
    n = 30
    l = 12
    f = 15
    failed hides total = 20

    Stats:
    Requires = 8
    Recycle = 4
    NPC sell low = 36
    NPC sell normal = 45
    NPC sell high = 51-49



    Research: Studded Sleeves

    Key:
    l = low quality produced
    n = normal quality produced
    f (x) = failed and lost x hides
    s = success

    Trials: 100
    Method: Attempted to produce studded sleeves.. Attempted to eat fishsteaks until no more could be eaten every 10 attempts

    ---------------
    (stuffed)
    1 l
    2 f 3
    3 f 1
    4 n
    5 s
    6 n
    7 n
    8 s
    9 n
    10 s
    (too full)
    11 s
    12 f 1
    13 s
    14 s
    15 l
    16 f 1
    17 l
    18 f 1
    19 f 1
    20 s
    (stuffed)
    21 l
    22 l
    23 s
    24 f 1
    25 n
    26 s
    27 f 1
    28 s
    29 n
    30 s
    (stuffed)
    31 f 2
    32 f 3
    33 l
    34 n
    35 n
    36 l
    37 f 1
    38 l
    39 s
    40 s
    (too full)
    41 n
    42 f 3
    43 n
    44 s
    45 n
    46 n
    47 l
    48 f 3
    49 s
    50 s
    (too full)
    51 s
    52 f 1
    53 n
    54 l
    55 n
    56 l
    57 n
    58 l
    59 f 1
    60 f 2
    (stuffed)
    61 s
    62 s
    63 f 1
    64 s
    65 n
    66 n
    67 f 2
    68 s
    69 l
    70 f 2
    (too full)
    71 l
    72 s
    73 f 1
    74 s
    75 s
    76 s
    77 n
    78 l
    79 n
    80 n
    (stuffed)
    81 l
    82 s
    83 f 3
    84 s
    85 s
    86 f 2
    87 n
    88 n
    89 l
    90 f 1
    (stuffed)
    91 f 1
    92 s
    93 l
    94 n
    95 s
    96 n
    97 f 1
    98 n
    99 n
    100 n

    Totals:
    s = 30
    n = 27
    l = 18
    f = 25
    failed hides total = 40

    Stats:
    Requires = 10
    Recycle = 5
    NPC sell low = 39
    NPC sell normal = 49
    NPC sell high = 57



    Research: Studded Leggings

    Key:
    l = low quality produced
    n = normal quality produced
    f (x) = failed and lost x hides
    s = success

    Trials: 100
    Method: Attempted to produce studded leggings.. Attempted to eat fishsteaks until no more could be eaten every 10 attempts

    ---------------
    (full)
    1 l
    2 f 4
    3 f 1
    4 n
    5 f 4
    6 l
    7 f 3
    8 l
    9 n
    10 s
    (too full)
    11 s
    12 l
    13 n
    14 s
    15 n
    16 s
    17 n
    18 s
    19 f 1
    20 l
    (full)
    21 l
    22 s
    23 f 3
    24 f 1
    25 s
    26 f 1
    27 f 1
    28 n
    29 s
    30 l
    (stuffed)
    31 n
    32 f 2
    33 l
    34 s
    35 n
    36 l
    37 n
    38 s
    39 f 1
    40 s
    (stuffed)
    41 n
    42 f 2
    43 n
    44 f 3
    45 f 4
    46 f 3
    47 s
    48 f 4
    49 l
    50 f 3
    (stuffed)
    51 f 2
    52 l
    53 l
    54 f 2
    55 n
    56 n
    57 l
    58 s
    59 s
    60 s
    (full)
    61 f 2
    62 n
    63 n
    64 l
    65 s
    66 n
    67 f 2
    68 l
    69 n
    70 n
    (too full)
    71 n
    72 f 2
    73 s
    74 n
    75 f 4
    76 f 1
    77 f 2
    78 l
    79 s
    80 n
    (too full)
    81 n
    82 f 3
    83 s
    84 l
    85 f 3
    86 f 4
    87 f 4
    88 s
    89 n
    90 s
    (stuffed)
    91 n
    92 l
    93 l
    94 l
    95 n
    96 s
    97 n
    98 n
    99 f 4
    100 f 2

    Totals:
    s = 22
    n = 27
    l = 20
    f = 31
    failed hides total = 78

    Stats:
    Requires = 12
    Recycle = 6
    NPC sell low = 45
    NPC sell normal = 57
    NPC sell high = 66



    Research: Studded Tunics

    Key:
    l = low quality produced
    n = normal quality produced
    f (x) = failed and lost x hides
    s = success

    Trials: 100
    Method: Attempted to produce a studded tunic.. Attempted to eat fishsteaks until no more could be eaten every 10 attempts

    ---------------
    (full)
    1 n
    2 s
    3 n
    4 f 1
    5 f 3
    6 f 1
    7 n
    8 f 4
    9 l
    10 n
    (full)
    11 f 3
    12 n
    13 f 4
    14 s
    15 f 6
    16 f 5
    17 f 2
    18 f 2
    19 f 5
    20 l
    (stuffed)
    21 n
    22 s
    23 n
    24 n
    25 n
    26 s
    27 n
    28 s
    29 l
    30 l
    (too full)
    31 n
    32 s
    33 f 4
    34 f 2
    35 f 3
    36 l
    37 f 4
    38 n
    39 f 2
    40 s
    (full)
    41 f 4
    42 f 1
    43 f 3
    44 f 3
    45 n
    46 n
    47 n
    48 f 2
    49 l
    50 f 2
    (stuffed)
    51 n
    52 f 1
    53 f 6
    54 f 2
    55 s
    56 l
    57 f 6
    58 n
    59 s
    60 n
    (full)
    61 f 6
    62 n
    63 s
    64 n
    65 l
    66 f 1
    67 f 3
    68 f 6
    69 n
    70 f 6
    (stuffed)
    71 n
    72 l
    73 s
    74 l
    75 l
    76 l
    77 l
    78 s
    79 l
    80 f 5
    (stuffed)
    81 f 5
    82 l
    83 s
    84 f 6
    85 f 4
    86 n
    87 f 3
    88 l
    89 f 5
    90 f 5
    (stuffed)
    91 s
    92 s
    93 n
    94 s
    95 f 2
    96 f 3
    97 f 6
    98 l
    99 f 2
    100 f 1

    Totals:
    s = 16
    n = 24
    l = 17
    f = 43
    failed hides total = 150

    Stats:
    Requires = 14
    Recycle = 7
    NPC sell low = 46
    NPC sell normal = 59
    NPC sell high = 69

    =============================================
    <P ID="edit[/image]<FONT SIZE=-1>Edited by Feenicks on 04/14/01 12:31 PM.</font></P><P ID="edit"><FONT class="small">Edited by Feenicks on 04/25/01 04:16 AM.</FONT></P>
     
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