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[UO Herald] Magincia House Plot Lottery Ticket Sales Analysis

Discussion in 'UHall' started by UO News, Jun 8, 2011.

  1. UO News

    UO News RSS Feed
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    Overview

    During the Magincia House Plot Lottery event, Ultima Online ran a lottery to win ownership of a number of 15x15 house plots located on the newly-rebuilt Isle of Magincia. There are 22 of these plots per facet (Felucca and Trammel), and 27 shards. Siege Perilous, having no Trammel facet, only had only 22 raffled plots, while the remaining 26 shards auctioned 44 plots. The total number of plots raffled is 1,166.

    Due to mistaken deletion of a related in-game object, there are no logs for plot SW-4 on the Trammel facet of the Atlantic shard. The numbers in this analysis therefore only include values for 1,165 lotteries. The numbers of tickets sold are in actuality slightly greater than those reported here. It is possible to estimate values of the missing data by extrapolation, but we make no attempt to do so here.

    Each of the 22 plots per facet were raffled in one of two ways: One Ticket Per User Account (“limited”), and Unlimited Tickets Per Customer (“unlimited”). 12 of the plots were limited lotteries, while the other 10 were unlimited. Limited-lottery tickets cost the player 10,000gp, and the unlimited-lottery tickets cost 2,000gp each.

    Here are some overall statistics for the lottery:


    • Total Ticket Sales
      • Total ticket sales for Limited Lottery plots were 139,482 (1,394,820,000gp).
      • Total ticket sales for Unlimited Lottery plots were 23,710,748 (47,421,496,000gp).
      • The total amount of gold spent on lottery tickets was 48,816,316,000gp.

    • Player Participation
      • 9,655 user accounts bought tickets for the lottery
      • 9,266 users bought tickets for Limited Lottery plots
      • 7,329 users bought tickets for Unlimited Lottery plots
      • 6,940 users bought tickets for both types of lotteries

    • Winner Distribution
      • 833 unique user accounts won plots from the lottery
      • 1 user won 10 plots
      • 2 users won 7 plots each
      • 8 users won 6 plots each
      • 7 users won 5 plots each
      • 17 users won 4 plots each
      • 40 users won 3 plots each
      • 112 users won 2 plots each
      • The remaining 646 users won a single plot


    Details – Limited Lotteries

    The complete report showing Limited Lottery Ticket Sales by Shard, Facet, and Plot can be downloaded in a pdf. We include summary lines by Facet and Shard, with grand totals.



    Details – Unlimited Lotteries

    Here we present a breakdown of the ticket sales for this lottery, summarized in several different ways. The column headers in these summaries are as follows:


    • Plot Player Total Average Median Std Dev Max (Chance) Winner (Chance)
    • Shard, Facet, and Plot – these indicate the location of the plot by server and facet, and include the plot number as used in-game for the lottery.
    • Player is the number of unique user accounts that purchased tickets in that particular lottery.
    • Total is the total number of tickets purchased for that lottery
    • Average shows the average (or mean) number of tickets purchased by each participant of that plot’s lottery.
    • Median shows the median value of tickets purchased; half the participants of that lottery purchased less than this number while the rest purchased more.
    • Std Dev shows Standard Deviation, which is the dispersion from the mean value amongst ticket purchasers. This number is the square root of the variance in ticket sales. A higher value here indicates a larger range in number of tickets purchased for that lottery.
    • Max is the number of tickets purchased by the largest ticket purchaser; the (Chance) column beside it shows the chances that user had of winning.
    • Winner indicates the number of tickets purchased by the plot’s winner, and the (Chance) column beside it shows the chance that user had of winning.
    The complete report showing Unlimited lottery ticket purchase information, broken down by individual plot, grouped by shard and facet can be downloaded in a pdf.



    More...
     
  2. Picus at the office

    Picus at the office Certifiable
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    I guess this would indicate that there are at least 9,600 accounts active(or somewhat active).
     
  3. CassieDarksong

    CassieDarksong Babbling Loonie
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    I'd say more. I didn't participate in the auctions at all and I have 3-4 accounts. I know a number of folks who have several accounts and didn't participate either.
     
  4. Klapauc

    Klapauc Sage
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    Seems like a very low number of active accounts atm. I do wonder why they did publish those statistics.
    And a single player did win 10 plots?
     
  5. Theo_GL

    Theo_GL Grand Poobah
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    If I were to guess - the active account numbers seem right.

    Lets assume about 75% of active players participated in the lottery - that would make 9,655 + .25(9,655) = 12,065 'active' players.

    Assume that about 50% many as that don't play 'actively' but keep accounts active for houses - thats about 18,000 total UO accounts.

    Now of the 12k active accounts - assume that roughly 1/2 of those have 2 accounts. So then you are back to about 9k total 'active' logging in players. Divide by the 20 or so actual shards played (can't count some of the korean shards that have literally 10-20 players) and you have about 450 actual physical people per shard playing. That sounds about correct. Higher on shards like Atl and Pac and lower on others.

    Given the people I see actually in the game and the numbers, 450 active players seems reasonable on any given day.

    If the UO subscription base is 18,000 with each paying $13 a month on average - thats 234,000/month or 2.8 milion a year. Take out $500k for hardware and hosting costs and you are generating about $2.3m/year before 'add on's. That would support about 10-12 devs and 5-8 QA and GMs approximately plus some facilities. I'm guessing that is about the size of the UO team give or take.
     
  6. *ahem*
    that would be active accounts(not inactive ... follow?)
    that wanted to bother placing their chips
    in a lottery ... for "a house" ... and/or "some real estate"
    *shrugs*
    nowhere near the "bar" that I set, re: impact
     
  7. MalagAste

    MalagAste Belaern d'Zhaunil
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    I'm thinking those numbers look pretty sad to me... but I'm not sure about 75% actually putting in for a plot.. I'm hoping that number is more like 50%....

    that would be better.

    But it's still very sad.... that's over how many shards? And we wonder why you can't find many folk on.
     
  8. *shakes head*
    that sounds/feels "correct" ... merely because you are talking with yourself
    and without any actual factual numbers ...

    :scholar: 'twill always be so
    :scholar: math in the hall bubba

    (your lowball guess) 15 fulltime employees a year(paycheck, no additional benefits)
    say ... 30k per on average? (30 / 12mo = 2.5 k a month ...)
    30k year X 15 bodies = $450,000 << payroll only(no additional benefits)

    *shrugs*
    but hey! you were just talking with yaself ...
    my apologies for eavesdropping and interjecting ...

    mummble on! :danceb:
     
  9. Bazer

    Bazer Slightly Crazed
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    Woo i was one of the 7 to win 5 plots woot!
     
  10. JC the Builder

    JC the Builder Crazed Zealot
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    It is impossible to derive active account numbers from these figures. Many people who are happy with their current homes would not have participated in the lottery. Assuming 75% participated is likely a huge overstatement.

    If you want to find out UO's active account numbers, just count every house on every shard.
     
  11. Viper09

    Viper09 Grand Poobah
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    Agreed. These numbers are only good for telling us exactly what they say. How much gold was spent and how many participated.
     
  12. Myphsar

    Myphsar Lore Keeper
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    Cant really do that cos i still have 1-2 plots up from the 'come back for free 2 weeks promotion' years back. (forgot the name)
    They are 100% closed accounts with plots still up from years ago.
     
  13. Basara

    Basara UO Forum Moderator
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    1. I know many times more people who didn't buy any tickets, than people who did. I also know several people who bought 0 tickets, but later bought a plot off someone who won.

    2. I only bought tickets with one of my 3 accounts, as speculation (no intent to move).

    In all, the numbers who bought tickets don't say anything about the number of active accounts, or number of actual players.
     
  14. Yalp

    Yalp Guest

    What you do know for certain, is that x amount of people bought x amount of tickets.. you can not extrapolate that number into active accounts. The column of numbers that you need to do that is % of accounts purchasing tickets. ... and that column is missing from the data.

    When you open the data pdf file, you see one thing very clearly.. more accounts bought more tickets in Trammel ruleset than Feluccan ruleset.... without exception *Siege excepted* ;)
     
  15. /this

    Basara? wasn't't you whom did an excellent breakout about the difference 'twixt and tween
    account#s vs Player#s ?
    could you find such a post?
    and add in a "better" definition ( for completeness )
    The variable "Active" vs "Paid" (with a subset for "broke mechanic" {above asdfsa houses} )
     
  16. popps

    popps Always Present
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    Who won 10 plots and how much gold was spent in the process ??
     
  17. Viper09

    Viper09 Grand Poobah
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    Yeah, right. 1 person out of 9,655 people. Think we have a low probability of them reading this thread, lol.
     
  18. Krinkle

    Krinkle Journeyman
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    48,816,316,000 gp is the massive amount of gold removed from the game? I seriously doubt that this is even 10% of the gold in the game. This doesn't seem to be all that much to me. Just an observation.
     
  19. claudia-fjp

    claudia-fjp Lore Master
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    Yeah the 49 Billion figure doesn't mean much without a gold total to compare it to. Remember a few years ago?

    "This action has resulted in over 180 accounts being terminated and approximately 15 Trillion (15,000,000,000,000) gold pieces have been permanently removed from the game."

    49 billion is a drop in the bucket compared to even that let alone the ACTUAL amount of gold in the game.
     
  20. claudia-fjp

    claudia-fjp Lore Master
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    Dozens of houses went up last Return to Brit on my server alone, multiply that by 5 years worth, then add the Ownerless, the owned by OSI, the bugged, the banned, the forgotten, and the grandfathered and you have a ton of houses in UO not paid for with active accounts.

    Then there are those that only pay every 3 months...
     
  21. one other variable to toss onto that ...
    How many shards are "packed"? (considering the above)

    Packed as in: full, no more space available
     
  22. JC the Builder

    JC the Builder Crazed Zealot
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    It will balance out with the accounts that don't have houses.
     
  23. claudia-fjp

    claudia-fjp Lore Master
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    I very seriously doubt that considering the number of houses were talking about. I think you are either underestimating the number of unpaid houses or overestimating the number of people who cough up $13 a month just to say naw I don't need a house.


    As for "Packed as in: full, no more space available" I think the answer is 0. I would have thought Atlantic but even it has space for houses these days I hear. Not 18x18s but still space as opposed to years ago when MANY servers were so packed you were hard pressed to find spots for even lowly 7x7s.
     
  24. Mapper

    Mapper Crazed Zealot
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    But housing space has increased over the years.
     
  25. GalenKnighthawke

    GalenKnighthawke Grand Poobah
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    I will not believe a word of this until I see the original timestamped spreadhseets. Not this PDF crap.

    And not in Excel format either. Excel lies. I insist on Lotus 1-2-3.

    Lotus 1-2-3, or it didn't happen.

    -Galen's player
     
  26. Cirno

    Cirno Purple Pony Princess
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    Even with all this (frankly delicious) data, handed to us all neatly sorted and whatnot, drawing any conclusions about overall population involves too many assumptions to be very much better than any other estimate.
    You can't even really determine shard population from them, because the numbers are a derivative of the shard population and the perceived desirability of the shard, because people from off-shard would be buying tickets in the hopes of a greater payoff (ATL houses appear to be worth over 10 times as much as EU houses).
     
  27. GalenKnighthawke

    GalenKnighthawke Grand Poobah
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    No, clearly this is a definitive statement of shard population.

    How could it possibly be anything else.

    At any rate, I think it's all lies, I think there were no more than 150 accounts that bought up all plots on all shards.

    I need to see the original spreadsheets, in Lotus 1-2-3 format.

    Lotus 1-2-3, or it didn't happen.

    Oh, and timestamped.

    Can't forget the timestamp.

    -Galen's player
     
  28. Ludes

    Ludes Babbling Loonie
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    Could someone post a quick explanation about "gold removed from game"?
    Removed from where? And why?
     
  29. claudia-fjp

    claudia-fjp Lore Master
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    Yes, two major house space additions and 2 minor.

    It was doubled with Trammel and most servers filled to capacity. Then they added Malas which was covered in 18 x 18s from one end to the other and again the servers were filled to capacity. It fit the definition of packed! If a house fell it was placed and sold quickly. You couldn't just run out and find a large spot to place.

    Tokuno added minimal housing and populations were in decline already but it was filled. Now small Zento lots on the road that show up on search sites even sit empty empty of houses. By the time the next added housing in SA came along populations had already been decimated and there is very little in the way of SA housing anyway.

    Felucca, Trammel, and Malas aren't emptying out due to new housing areas.
     
  30. claudia-fjp

    claudia-fjp Lore Master
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    I was referring to

    ORIGIN - Ultima Online - Main
     
  31. Ludes

    Ludes Babbling Loonie
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    Thank you for that link Claudia.. I think I understand it a little better now.

    I was finding it hard to believe they sold 48 billion gold worth of lottery tickets when houses aren't so hard to place anymore.. I placed a new house in exactly my old spot from years ago when I came back a week ago..
     
  32. Lord Nabin

    Lord Nabin High Council Sage - Greater Sosaria
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    15 trillion that was a great day I will never forget. The burning houses with the efigy (did I spell that right) of a traitor were classic. I think there still is a keep burning on Pacific!
     
  33. Nimuaq

    Nimuaq Lore Master
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    When you kill a creature, complete a quest, finish a champion spawn, sell items to NPC vendors..., the game creates a certain amount of gold pieces. Over the last 13 years, more and more gold pieces are created this way. If you logged out in 02' and logged in today, one of the first things you will notice is that the gold you've farmed for several years dont worth as much as it did in 02'. You can log out with a fortune and log in to see you cant even afford an average suit.

    Now, when you trade with other players, these gold pieces only change hands and they are not removed from the game. It is also worth noting that some players used some exploits to duplicate the gold they had, which is also known as duping. One of the ways to remove a certain amount of gold from the game is to give it to the NPCs, whether to buy items or more specific things. You can also remove gold from the game by letting it decay or deleting a character, but these are not common practices amongst most players for apparent reasons. However, NPCs do not charge more than they did years ago so this can not balance the gold created and removed from the game.

    A new player starts with 1k gold pieces. He/She can farm about 30 to 80 gold pieces from the skeletons, zombies or mongbats, which are the only things he/she can kill, and also directed to kill, as a new player. We, the veteran players, know the ways to farm gold from scratch, it wouldn't even take too much time for us. But for that new player, the currency in the game becomes quite frustrating at start.

    Also, when a player reaches a point where he/she already possess most of the things that are deemed to be valuable in a game and can further buy almost any item he/she wants, maybe even multiple times, the game might start to feel monotonous and their sense of achievement might lessen. We know that UO is not a game which you can win or complete, even the richest players in the game have some goals they want to achieve, but it is important to add more fun goals to this list.

    There are again several methods that can be used to remove gold. Adjusting the NPC vendor prices (preferably dynamically), increasing the gold created as a loot or dividing all gold by a certain value (as in removing three zeros from the gold) might work. A more immediate approach is to create systems to remove huge amounts of gold from the game at once, also known as gold sinks. Magincia lottery, new boats, etc. served the latter idea.

    I'm sure other players will explain it better, and also correct my post and answer more of your questions since this is an active field of discussion here on stratics and some players know much more about it.
     
  34. claudia-fjp

    claudia-fjp Lore Master
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    4 or so burnt custom houses on Pacific 2 side by side, I think the burning keep you are thinking of is on Napa.
     
  35. AesSedai

    AesSedai Guest

    - That was a great day in UO, indeed. Thanks Draconi and fellow fire-starters.

    - I do appreciate the exposure of these numbers regarding this particular sink (Vex? nice).

    The numbers are fun faux fodder for all (aye, perhaps a predictable cash-in concept: allow there to be more drama by way of affording more ambiguous facts).

    Not a legitimate multi-trillion sink (like before, from our cheating payers); but a legitimate sink from those willing to reap the real estate involved. It is another correction to the UO economic situation; by the numbers provided: I am intrigued to surmise upon the amount of hybernated accounts that have bills or trills worth of stuff per.. stuff that was illegitmately obtained, and will continue to remain accessible while the active players are pouring their stuff into the latest sinks... Sorry to be so blunt about the economy, but all stuff matters, when trying to fix UO.

    (UO [including Devs, aye, aye], you have been told this before. By me. So this should be no surprise. Keep fixing please.)
     
  36. Lord Nabin

    Lord Nabin High Council Sage - Greater Sosaria
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    Yep its Napa. :pie:

    I actually like having them around
     
  37. Tomas_Bryce

    Tomas_Bryce Rares Collector Extraordinaire | Rares Fest Host
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    48 billion gold across all of the shards makes for a pretty ineffective gold sink.
     
  38. Herman

    Herman Seasoned Veteran
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    10k users any given week and 5m average on this lotto thats alot better than i was expecting so many of my friends only play a month or two every year

    If anyone is missing me on Atlantic the last month or so i m still waiting on my new computer the store did mess up my order ;(( see you all soon
     
  39. Viper09

    Viper09 Grand Poobah
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    Your opinion. I think it's pretty good since, as the devs said before it even started, it wasn't intended to be a gold sink. Of course no one even knows how much gold the average player has. But i'd say the average player is no where near as rich as you'd think.
     
  40. Assia Penryn

    Assia Penryn The Sleeping Dragon
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    I have to agree with Tomas. 48 billion is better than nothing, but the amount of gold in this game is far,far, far beyond that. This is a start, but they need to create more gold sinks and not wait years to implement them.


    Thank you very much for reporting this.
    It was really good to finally see the figures.
     
  41. Vyal

    Vyal Guest

    UO will not be around for years, enjoy it while you still can. :coco:
     
  42. Charin

    Charin Journeyman

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    No too terribly random if several won more than 2 lots eh? One guy got 10? Way to go... nonrandom plot asignments...
     
  43. Bravo to the Dev Team for keeping track of and reporting the data, regarding the Magincia Housing Lottery!

    Bravo to the Dev Team for removing 49 Billion Gold from the game as a result of the Housing Lottery “gold sink,” even if it was “inadvertent!”

    Sure seemed pretty painless, no?

    Nobody who participated in the lottery hesitated to plunk down their coin purses—often repeatedly—and often parting with huge amounts of coin... What does that tell you?

    Many others who DID NOT participate in the housing lottery waited for the dust to settle, and then parted with (usually enormous) sums of gold to simply buy the lots they wanted from those who had won them. This method provided the buyers with the home sites that they wanted as a "sure thing"—no waiting on the results of a lottery to know if the site was theirs or not. Were they hesitant to spend their gold? No. Many have bought more than one Magincia lot since the lottery ended—to them, gold was not—and is not—an issue. In fact, many feel that Maginica will evolve (devolve?) into another motley collection of vendor houses, so every lot purchased is not being looked at as an expense or a loss of gold, but, rather, as yet one more vendor house location that is likely to GENERATE MORE GOLD!

    Sure, the Dev Team can be happy that 49 Billion has been siphoned off the top, but, as many others have said before me, that 49 Billion is merely the tip of the proverbial iceberg—or more aptly—the tip of the gold pile.

    I do not begrudge anyone spending their gold to buy Maginica lots, and I fully support the idea of a free-market system (which for the most part means a vendor system) for players to make their fortunes. If a player wishes to take the time to run a vendor, keeping it stocked, and checking up on it often to make sure it stays active and profitable, then more power to that player. But understand this—if we allow such an economy in UO, then we need to expect this economy to grow in size—meaning that more gold will enter the game. We also need to expect inflation to be a part of this growth. At the introduction of Age of Shadows, one million gold sitting in your bank box meant that you were quite a wealthy player. Today, one million gold merely means that you can die a lot before your insurance costs will deplete your bank balance.

    If we REALLY want to know what 49 billion gold means, then we need to know what 49 billion gold is relative to. Consider this analogy. Suppose that a child's sandbox contains 49 billion grains of sand. If you think about those 49 billion grains of sand by themselves, it seems like a LOT of sand—especially if you have to count each grain by hand! But, if we set the sand box down on a beach somewhere, the 49 billion grains of sand suddenly become an insignificant speck in a virtually endless sea of sand grains. Hence the point—49 billion IS a large number, to be sure—but it is meaningless unless we know how much gold exists in the game in total. It's always going to be a relative thing.

    So Bravo to the Dev Team—and I mean that sincerely not sarcastically. After all, the lottery was not intended or expected to drain so much gold from the game, (AND, generally speaking, the lottery was a success for the intended purpose of repopulating and rebuilding Magincia in a reasonably fair manner). But, at the same time, let us keep the 49 billion gold number in perspective.

    Is any member of the Dev Team willing, able, and at-liberty to reveal:

    1.) The total number of accounts, both active and inactive, per shard worldwide (where "active" is defined as having been logged-into within the past 60 days)?
    2.) The total number of players that own those accounts (and thus, who play UO)?
    3.) The total amount of gold held within all of those accounts (which would equate to the amount of gold held by all of the players in UO)?
    4.) The average amount of gold held by each account within the game?
    5.) Is it even possible to track gold in the game by account? Is there some piece of software that the Devs have access to that will tell them how much gold exists in UO?

    Without these and similar questions being answered, we can only guess at how "big" 49 billion—or even 15 trillion gold is—within the scope and scale of UO as a whole. But, again, I leave you with the same observation that I started with:

    The players spent the 49 billion without a second thought. What does that tell you?

    Arafel Ilianna
    Lake Superior
     
  44. Kas Althume

    Kas Althume Crazed Zealot
    Stratics Veteran Stratics Legend

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    I'm curious how you lot can guess the active accounts just by the numbers given by the OP. I got 6 accounts active and placed only 1 bid on siege....
     
  45. Frarc

    Frarc Stratics Legend
    Stratics Veteran Alumni Stratics Legend

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    Speculations! Got to love them. ;)
     
  46. Well, as long as we're dissing opinions ...

    search on "billion" here at stratics ...
    the rares gang is kinda blase about tossing that figure around ..
    *shrugs*

    gotta :thumbsup: bryce though ... he is in >my opinion< spot on ...
    *shrugs*

    As for
    doesn't make it any "better"
    In my opinion ... the devs >should be< working towards gold sinks
    missing >opportunities< just ain't a "good thang" in my opinion ...

    neither is bumping mob loot to "easy gold for noobs" quite a "thought out solution"
    (I doubt it will lower prices, and i know(in my opinion) that the noobs >will never catchup< unless you just blank check them(noobs), cap the vets and thus >devalue< their years of focused effort)

    Hey ... did they ever fix the "free banking" aspect of the vendors?
    just saying ...
    an average player may have squirreled more than YOU think, in my opinion.

    would LOVE to have them put an anonymous number to that ...
    (see which opinion guessed right)
    total "liquid" gp per shard (liguid as in, stacks of gp, check value gp, vendor holdings gp)

    IF they want a "better" gold sink (no proof that they do ... see above)

    How about releasing the "perma claim" on inside the walls luna housing?
    bid on two month leases for those "plots"
    or
    (been brought up for years) take all 4 legacy castles (fel/tram) CONDO
    and/or TOWNHOUSE (lord british and blackthorn)

    :talktothehand: meh!
     
  47. same way I can guess how much money you have in your pocket ...
    less than a buck fifty US($1.50)
    (more in your wallet ... less than a double saw buck)
    its a GUESS thilly!
    and if you read the entire thread ... pretty much as invalid as assuming >you have ANY money<

    though you are likely to >owe more<(debt/obligations) than you could cover with holdings and a months salary ...

    amazing ... yes?

    *rubs crystal ball* :danceb:

    @Arafel Ilianna: nice summation
     
  48. Nexus

    Nexus Site Support
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    I'm still sticking with saying there are between 50,000 and 75,000 active subs.

    These figures are about what I expected in number of accounts that bought into it.....

    How many folks have houses that a 15x15 simply didn't seem attactive enough to give up? I wasn't gonna trade out a Luna house and a water front Keep for one...
     
  49. jbfortune

    jbfortune Slightly Crazed
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    Hmmm, you don't think most accounts would have assumed they could sell the plot on? I do!

    Not you personally but I find some people get so defensive about about the amount of active accounts in UO. Like its some kind of personal attack on them that the game has a tiny number of active accounts.

    The problem I find with threads like this is the only people really coming in here seem to be the ones who haven't bought tickets on any of their accounts. It's the same with scripting, if you based it just on Statics, you'd think no one scripted at all which we all know isn't true.
     
  50. Shinobi

    Shinobi Guest

    Welp, I officially own the most expensive Felucca New Mag house in UO, lol. SW-5 on Atlantic. 82,500 tickets. That's 165mil. I had to take out a few loans, lol. I better start playing again...need to make some steals to pay off my debts, haha.