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What has made me log off the past 3 times I've played?

Discussion in 'UHall' started by Speedy Orkit, Apr 1, 2010.

  1. Speedy Orkit

    Speedy Orkit Grand Inquisitor
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    Was it dying? Nope

    Was it losing a bunch of stuff? Nope

    Was it doing a peerless over and over without a drop? Nope


    It was trying to imbue something that has a 17.6% chance to imbue, and failing 50+ times in a row, so many times I actually had to make 2 bank trips before I finally said screw it and logged off.

    I don't think there is a problem with imbuing failing that much, I'd just like to know how hard the game is going to bone me when it bends me over, don't cushion it with false numbers. I have imbued a lot, a lot a lot, and I have to say the numbers represented do not ever represent the actual chance, it seems far less, and I have heard this complaint from others as well. I know everyone will say "RNG is a pain" but is that even it? I've dealt with bad runs of RNG before, but with imbuing it doesn't seem to be that, it seems to just be a lie.
     
  2. Picus at the office

    Picus at the office Certifiable
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    Queens forge + Garg = Best you can do.

    I don't even bother to look at the numbers as they are useless at best. I want XYZ item, I can imbue it and I shall make it. Problem solved. I don't sell my items anymore so my grief is limited to making items for guildmates and my new chars.
     
  3. Fresley

    Fresley Journeyman
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    Random number generator is random.

    I feel your pain though.
     
  4. Smokin

    Smokin Guest

    Were you not one of the people that wanted relic fragments harder to get. If so now you see why they shouldn't be so hard.
     
  5. Speedy Orkit

    Speedy Orkit Grand Inquisitor
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    Like I said, I have no problem with the difficulty, I have a problem with it telling me I have a 1/5 shot and failing 50 times.
     
  6. Picus at the office

    Picus at the office Certifiable
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    17.6% is saying 82.4% your gonna fail. Seems that you should be happy it only took 50 tries. In theory you could never make the item and it would not be a surprise.

    Just bang through and be happy the dev team through us all this bone.
     
  7. Yen Sid

    Yen Sid Guest

    I failed 12 times in a row imbuing 8 LMC @ ~22% on my kilt last night, 65 relic frags later and I got it :(. I hope it wasnt relic frags you lost 50 times in a row lol because 12 times failed was plenty for me :\.
     
  8. Lorax_Pacific

    Lorax_Pacific Lore Master
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    So here is the deal. Move your spot around the soulforge. It sounds weird, but moving to a different spot always seems to make things better. This really works, try it.

    You can also try crossing your fingers. I swear this works too as I have tested it with enhancing. Everytime I don't cross my fingers I always fail, but everytime I do cross my fingers I get a success. I try not to cross my fingers on the first try though just to not ruin my success rate.

    -Lorax
     
  9. Beastmaster

    Beastmaster Guest


    This.

    And I hope it was frags he was losing.
     
  10. Smokin

    Smokin Guest

    For enhancing I close my eyes.
     
  11. miss uo

    miss uo Guest

    You guys have long memories.
     
  12. Lord Frodo

    Lord Frodo Grand Poobah
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    This is a 1/5 chance everytime you try it, not for every 5 times I do it I get one. we are talking RNG here and RNG loves no one.
     
  13. Capt.E

    Capt.E Guest

    I spin around in my chair and say NO WHAMMIES!!! Works every time.
     
  14. Lorax_Pacific

    Lorax_Pacific Lore Master
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    I just pictured you doing that!

    -Lorax
     
  15. Liquid_Ape

    Liquid_Ape Guest

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

    Perhaps the 1/5 shot is based on the law of large numbers whereas 50 times is not very large in the grand scheme of things.
     
  16. Lord Frodo

    Lord Frodo Grand Poobah
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    If it works it works. I pray to the UO GOD. He don't love me either. He brother to RNG GOD.
     
  17. Nyses

    Nyses Lore Keeper
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    Ya, you gotta love your imbuing chances. I used to watch it real closely on my Garg Imbuer. and go to the Queens forge and all that. Then a guildmate pointed out that he routinely is succesful at imbuing items at home with less that a 10% chance of success.

    So, I started watching it, and although not scientific, it seems you have about as good a chance to make items on the home forge as you do at the queens, thanks to our RNG. I too have failed 47 times with a near 20% success chance, at the queens forge. I have also gotten it (several times) within 4 tries (even the 1st try) at home with a less than 5% chance of success.
     
  18. Guido_LS

    Guido_LS Seasoned Veteran
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    It's why I never bothered changing my artificer from human to gargoyle - the *benefit* isn't worth the headaches gained by losing the other human advantages.

    If I fail at a high difficulty combine more than 4-5 times in a row, I stop trying, and move on to something else, and come back to the hard combine later. I'm never in that big of a hurry to blow a couple hundred k in seconds.
     
  19. Eddie123

    Eddie123 Adventurer
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    OR................................................. DO THE MODS WITH FRAGS FIRST?
     
  20. a slave girl

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    I move around when crafting because I swear I recall a dev once posting years ago that the ground tile you are standing on determines your chances of getting different quality items when 'looting" (was a luck thread I think), and that the luck (RNG?) of each tile changes randomly.

    So when crafting I HAVE noticed that I tend to get alot of a certain mod standing on tile A, but when I move to tile B, I get alot of a different mod.

    I've not done a lot of imbuing yet, so can't say it might work for imbuing.

    I think of UO's ground tiles as being randomly lighted/unlit tiles, and if I happen to find the specially lighted tile and craft on it, I have the chance to craft a better item.

    I also once had a player say that he got better runic crafted items in 5 second windows.

    I am not sure exactly how that one works, I just craft really fast when using runic hammers (he showed me good weapons he made in that 5 second window).

    Maybe something to these ideas, maybe not.

    We all seem to have our ways.

    :)

    Oh, I was once told crafting at Fel Skara gate made better items, but that one seemed to not work so well.
     
  21. Basara

    Basara UO Forum Moderator
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    Where as simple probability says 50 failures in a row at a 1 in 5 chance is 0.8^50, or 0.000014272477 (just over 14 chances in 1 million) likely to occur.

    It's that streaking problem that Draconi admitted to existing, in the pseudo-RNG. It is prone to streaks at all points in the curve, resulting in the streaks balancing out - in samples of tens or hundreds of thousands of rolls, of course (see said Law of Large Numbers). The fact that it's not truly a fair die (NO computer-based RNG is), diminishes the application of the law.
     
  22. popps

    popps Always Present
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    Now, 65 relic fragments at an average price of like 50,000/60,000 gp means, for 1 modifier, some 3,250,000/3,900,000 gps....

    And that is for 1 piece. Considering a suit has many slots plus jewellery, plus weapon, plus shield one can see how high end imbuing and, therefore, competitiveness in PvP is not something that is affordable to all players........

    And, if not all players can afford it, those who cannot might be deterred from doing it and so, the game looses out for not having a wider pool of PvPers making it more competitive and challenging for everyone.

    My conclusion ?

    That imbuing should be made more affordable also to the average players, not only those with most time to play or most wealth to invest in better gear.
     
  23. Harlequin

    Harlequin Babbling Loonie
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    What Basara says about the streaky RNG. I was corrected regarding the probability before when there was a discussion of val ore smelting chances. Each time you roll, there's a fresh 78% chance of failing.

    Is it possible to not roll any 6 on a 6-sided die with 50 throws of the die? Yup unfortunately.

    You won't believe the number of times I get the not enough regs message when I run in a 98% LRC suit.

    On top of that, the RNG bell curve seems to favor the extremes. As if it rolls 1 - 255 instead of 1 - 100, and if it rolls anything above 100, it rounds it down to 100...
     
  24. Harlequin

    Harlequin Babbling Loonie
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    BTW, the moving around and 5 second window things are 2 UO myths that the missus and I subscribe to.

    Moving around - have you failed to rez someone for several times, then change to a new spot and then you immediately succeeded?

    5 second window - have you trained any skills at high levels without gains for long periods of time and then had 2-3 gains back to back?
     
  25. Llewen

    Llewen Grand Inquisitor
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    Well, I think I probably have been making up for all the bad luck Orkit has had. I find I fail far less often than I should, if you take the odds into account. Now of course, knowing UO, that could all change. But I must admit, failing at enhancing has made me want to throw my computer out the window a few times...
     
  26. Fink

    Fink Guest

    You imbue the expensive mods first. The first one costs 5 frags, the second one usually does too. It doesn't cost 5x65 fragments to make one item. Also fragments are free, albeit difficult to come by, if you're prepared to do your own sourcing.
     
  27. Harlequin

    Harlequin Babbling Loonie
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    That actually reminds me of the movie "unbreakable"... Villian has a condition that left him with very fragile bones. So he reckons that there must be someone on the other end of the spectrum with unbreakable bones.
     
  28. Harlequin

    Harlequin Babbling Loonie
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    That also reminded me of something else...

    If I imbue properties that requires relic fragments, and don't have a 100% success chances, I'd intentionally reduce the intensities of other properties that requires only residues or essences first. That'll give me a higher success chance to imbue the properties that requires relics.

    Once done, I'll re-imbue the properties that I'd lowered earlier. That way, I only burn through residues.

    Sorry Orkit, I didn't think of mentioning this earlier.
     
  29. Surgeries

    Surgeries Grand Poobah
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    I pictured both of you, utilizing each others Imbuing/Enhancement Success Techniques!!

    What a terrific visual...hehehehe.
     
  30. Llewen

    Llewen Grand Inquisitor
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    Myself I like sacrificing goats... Had a screen shot once, but I appear to have deleted it...
     
  31. Lorax_Pacific

    Lorax_Pacific Lore Master
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    It cannot always be done that way so that is a simplification. I was making lorax a ring. I had a bare 50% EP ring. I wanted HCI, DCI, and dex. Take your pick HCI or DCI will loose fragments. It turned out I used 15 relics on the second property and was unraveling artifacts left and right to get enough to make the ring.

    Also, any time you make something with a runic or artifact type jewelry and then imbue this problem can occur. You are not wrong, but I wanted to add this point since the point quoted is only circumstantial for fresh new bare items.

    -Lorax
     
  32. wrekognize

    wrekognize Guest

    Man...I feel your pain. I played cards the other night and could not get a hand to save my LIFE. Sucks when bad luck rolls over and over.
     
  33. Shelleybean

    Shelleybean Certifiable
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    I think that this is the broken RNG at work and I was under the impression it was going to be fixed. To me, getting peerless keys has to be the worst. When the RNG hates you, it really hates you.
     
  34. Fink

    Fink Guest

    15 relics sounds like you got out of it cheap in any case. Did all your other properties require relics too?

    50% EP is a very special circumstance, though. It's more like your second property becomes as difficult as your third property normally is as that first one is 200% intensity. You wouldn't have an entire suit with that problem.

    As Harlequin rightly points out, most essence/residue properties can be diminished until the expensive ones are done (the exceptions being those oddball properties you get from ML craftifacts).