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Does luck work?

Discussion in 'UO Tamer' started by Boogieman, Dec 17, 2008.

  1. Boogieman

    Boogieman Guest

    Now, I'm posting this on the tamer forum, because I believe that tamers are the ones that most easily can afford to compromise with other aspects of their suits, in order to max out on luck. But it is naturally relevant whenever you consider wearing luck on a char and might be forced to cut down on other desirable atttributes.

    I tried to make it short - but I couldn't, so bear with me.

    For the purpose of another test, a char of mine was at minimum karma level and needed to get to max, so I went and killed demons. Decided to keep an eye on the loot in everyone.
    I went from ‘dread’ to neutral wearing 0 luck equipment. The items on the demons were appalling. I didn’t find any items with maximum intensity. There was one item which I would consider to take home, had it been production shard.

    Then I changed my gear. Thanks to the generosity of Test Shard I could wear 1214 luck. On the first killed demon I found a hat with max reflect phys damage. Next I found a gorget with max SR and max MR. None of the items were keepers though. All else was junk, junk and yet more junk.

    I didn’t keep a record of the number of items I found on the demons. But it seemed to me that it increased slightly:
    With no luck I would sometimes get a demon with only 1 item. But also sometimes with 5.
    With 1214 luck, to get 1 item was rare, 2-3 was the normal.

    Then I realized that I had to make more accurate records to be able to conclude anything.

    I thought that perhaps luck would apply differently to monsters that naturally have very modest loot. That it would be easier to see a difference between wearing a good luck suit and nothing. So I went and killed 35 trolls with no luck and 35 trolls with 1214 luck.

    Now here’s a bit of statistics I made based on the troll slaugther:

    Luck 0
    Average no of items 0,8
    Median of items 1
    Avg no of attributes 1,9
    Avg point of resist added 3,6
    Avg intensity added 32,1
    Avg luck if any 21

    Luck 1214
    Average no of items 0,9
    Median of items 1
    Avg no of attributes 2,6
    Avg point of resist added 5,2
    Avg intensity added 33,7
    Avg luck if any 24

    For those of you not familiar with statistics I’ll put in words:

    The average number of items found on the trolls didn’t seem to differ.

    The number of items most often found on a troll is 1. This was not affected by luck to any noticeable degree.

    The average amount of attributes on items increased slightly with luck.

    Looking only at the resist of items, I calculated the average points of resist that was added, if any. This seemed to increase with luck.

    However: The average intensity of the attributes did not differ! In other words: Luck doesn’t appear to boost the quality of a given attribute very much.

    Now that is a bit in contradiction to what we see if we only look at resist.
    I believe the explanation is that this last calculation is somewhat flawed, because all attributes are included and compared. By doing this I take averages on figures that should not be included in a calculation of average, if you go by the book.
    But the same can be said for the ‘average point of resist added’ calculation. Round that 3,6 up to 4 and the 5,2 down to 5 and the table would show 4 versus 5. Not a big difference, if any at all (statistically speaking).

    In order to make a fair and correct comparison I looked at luck only which falls into a scale of 1-100 making it suitable for this. The figures 21 and 24 are not the same, as anyone can see, but they are not statistically different either.

    So to conclude on my findings:
    Wearing high luck does not mean you won’t find crap loot. (This is hardly surprising for anyone playing the game).
    Wearing high luck does not mean you will get a lot of good stuff.
    Wearing high luck seems to increase the amount of items you get.
    Luck means that every now and then an item gets a boost. As far as I understand the mechanism, luck can be applied onto only a few attributes on the same item, which explains why the good items are so rare to find on monsters. In order to get a good item you would need a boost on several attributes.

    So does luck work? Well, look at the figures and judge for yourself.
    The answer I give is: Yes, but only if you get really, really lucky! :D

    It could be interesting to make the same test on a high level monster – such as dragons or balrons, because I might have hit the cap on what you can find on low level critters. Then my troll test shows nothing. But… well, let’s see if I can find the inspiration to do that.
  2. Quinn1969

    Quinn1969 Guest

    Hey Boogie....

    Try a miasma slaughter. I did that and made over $200k in an hour last week. I had on only a 900 luck suit but it made a heck of a difference. I think it makes a big difference in my experience.

    Happy farming :)

    Lady Quinn
  3. 5% Luck

    5% Luck Guest

    I went to blighted with and with out a luck suit and sat on coil's spawning spot for 2 hours each way.(lead silvers to absess and my tamer is a pally(remove curse-mortal)). Anyhow

    without the luck suit(236 luck)
    with luck suit & statue(2047luck)

    I got more items without the luck suit. Now this is coil and he is notorious for droping decent loot.

    My synopsis is that in order for good lot to drop you have to change venue every 45 mins or so( a full pack of gold)on average or the RNG gets stale. Try that and see how it works. When I did coil the 1st time was without the luck suit and directly after was with the luck suit. I notice when I change venue regularly I get better items on average then when I "camp" and there is the major difference. I would also venture to say if you use the luck suit you will get better items though constantly entering a new area in a luck suit might off set any loot you do gain as its not easy to get in a spawn as it is to camp one.

    Heh- Good Luck no pun intended! yea wel i guess it was :)
  4. RichDC

    RichDC Guest

    Ive had many conversations with guildies about luck, and this appears to be our opinion (well mine at least).

    Luck does help the intensity of the items dropped and the quantity (altho you wont see much diff on trolls!! we mainly talking peerless here) however, the drops of the arties seems to be completely independant of luck. ive been on many runs with highest luck, crimmy drops but not to me :( i may be wrong and im sure other people will have diff opinions thats just myn
  5. Boogieman

    Boogieman Guest

    I'd probably try it if I weren't scared of Rend. They spawn too close together for my liking.
    As for wearing 'only 900 luck': According to the numbers 900 luck means you should have a 44% chance of that luck having an effect on the loot. That's 2 kills out of 5 with the luck effect on.

    5% - you got me a little confused:
    - but then you add:
    Are you saying you get less, but better items with luck?

    Luck should work in the way that you get 1) more items and 2) they have a chance of being boosted in intensity.

    I get that your main point is to change spawn often, which I would tend to agree with. I guess there could be some kind of 'anti-camping' code implemented with regard to the quality of the loot. But testing this kind of hypothesis is difficult.
    My primary goal was to explore in depth to what extent luck affects the loot, when you look at the naked numbers.

    The problems with testing this on peerless (apart of me not being up to the task of doing them solo) is kinda the opposite of the trolls: The peerless already drop loot that is high intensity, so the luck you wear might not have an effect on the intensity.
    As for arties and luck - you are probably right, that getting an arti is unaffected by luck. But because you would have to kill perhaps 200-400 peerless with and without luck to obtain enough artifacts to test this, it's rather a huge task to carry out.

    Now, I'm killing serpentine dragons at the moment and collecting data. It will take some time because the amount of data is quite large and I need to go and boost my karma every now and then to keep the annoying pixies off my back.
  6. RichDC

    RichDC Guest

    I have noticed a huge difference in the quality of loot...solo or group.

    When i play my necro he has mayb 200luck and the loot tends to be laughable.

    however when i play my tamer (who actually does less damage) with ove 1600 luck there are items dropped that sometimes(not often mind) are better than the unique arty. (example is at Travesty with 2man run combined luck of around 3500 we got a Tricorne hat 20%lrc mr2 with over 70resist, how cool!!!)
  7. 5% Luck

    5% Luck Guest

    Yes its a tough hypothesis to test. but what I was showing is that

    #1 luck does improve item quality& quantity

    #2 If you camp the same spawn the luck is nullified and even brought backwards.

    Other things to note

    Peerless luck is completely based on highest damager. This is hard to pull off in a group but if you have the luck suit guy do the damage and everyone else hold back "some" it will help everyones loot count regardless of party(break party early or not)

    For arti i drops 200 luck is sufficient to get the max bonus. Any higher only effects the corps loot "from" the top damager in all corps instances.

    I ran this test One pack full of gold(15-21k) each location. Luck 240+- total gold 1 m

    rune beetle above average loot
    oni above average loot
    bally Typical lame loot
    greater dragons Typical lame loot
    sucubus above average loot
    misima above average loot
    swoop above average loot

    Sitting in one place(200k+ gold) in a luck suit1400-2100+ total gold 1 m

    Rune beetle Lame loot
    oni average loot
    Bally terrible loot
    GD lame loot
    Sucubus some halfway decent jewlery
    misima average loot
    Swoop far and few between but some realy high end stuff

    If i was sterner in my data i might have come up with this being somehow attached to slayer groups!

    This is complied from many hunting trips out and testing the change venue method of getting loot(4 years+) I would say that if you wore a luck suit and used the 1st setup (one pack of gold the move on) you would see a much better loot rate that any other way. I havent tested it because geting in a spot is tougher than camping one.

    Especially in a luck suit
  8. Boogieman

    Boogieman Guest

    Hey Rich, I completely believe you when you say you have noticed a huge difference in loot w/wo luck. However, I have not been able to see any huge differences in the data I have collected. So perhaps it's more down to what we, as human beings tend to do: Notice things that are noticeable, and forget stuff that is just average. That I why I'm running these strict recordings of data - to get beyond what is noticeable and see what is actually there.

    The hat you found is truly awesome! I'm envious! But let's have a closer look at it and check out the intensities:
    20% LRC - 100% intensity - wow!
    +70 resist - Hats come with a basic 24 resist. To obtain a total of say 74 you would have to add 10 resist in each category. 10 added resist is equal to 66,7% intensity - fairly good, but nothing remarkable.
    MR 2 - I don't know the chance of rolling MR 2 versus MR 1, but during my tests I have picked up several MR 2 items and one from a troll wearing no luck, so I think it's all down to random rolls.
    So why's your hat so imensely cool? Well, obviously it got boosted on several attributes - somewhere between 7 or 8 added attrbiutes. And then you were very lucky to get a combination of rolls that added up perfectly.
    In a parallel universe your hat might have gotten +6 str, +6 dex, and 20 less resist - still a nice hat, but not über. I bet you might have thrown away hats with the same applied intensities, but differently distributed.
    Basically there is no way to tell whether your hat is product of random luck and hunting a high end monster or armour-luck.

    I believe that in parties, it's the person with the highest luck who affects the loot - not the combined luck.
  9. RichDC

    RichDC Guest

    Must admit didnt realise that the resists equated to 66%(did you take into account that normal tricornes have 0 phys resist?) however the other mods are at 100% intensity, when combined with the number of mods (2 on the actual mods and then hitting all 5 resists) that equats to a piece that cannot be made by any runic (vlas have a max mod count of 5) therefore making an exceptional piece.

    In terms of perception i have recieved many items that because i need appear perfect (11stealth 11 wrestle 8dex 15dci 11energy resist) but when you check intensities arent Uber. However, i think if we both keep a check on item mod counts and intensities we should work it out you have awoken the researcher in me :p
  10. ACB1961

    ACB1961 Lore Keeper
    Stratics Veteran

    Dec 8, 2008
    Likes Received:
    The simple answer is yes luck works great.

    It seems to be more noticeable on the higher level creatures like the swoop, but you will get more arti drops on something as simple as an earth elemental. I have killed many many thousands of monsters. You wouldn't even believe it.

    If you put on a very high luck suit and go to the swoop you will absolutely get higher properties on the items you get. You get so many items you probably wouldn't notice the difference in the number, but after 12 hours you will definitely have more items you keep than without it. I keep something like 1 item I get in 500 or so without luck there. I would keep 5-9 with the high luck, and this is luck 1800-2000+ for an hour, 1300 at least for the entire time.
  11. RichDC

    RichDC Guest

    i havent done farming of swoops ive always found the loot to be relativly crap for my needs (i dont have vendors so quite often i leave all items in an hour period) with luck there is almost always a few nice items worth keeping at peerless (solo grizz and 2man travesties) this is where my main comparisons have been drawn from.
  12. Boogieman

    Boogieman Guest

    #1 - quality, yes probably, to a small degree. Quantity - I have not been able to see a difference in quantity. I beleive that it depends a lot of the creature you hunt. Most creatures I guess will have a cap.

    #2 - You may have a point about some anti-camping code being in the game. But luck actually working towards you and making your loot poorer??? I love a good conspiracy as much as anyone, but honestly I cannot support that one.

    If 200 luck is enough to get max bonus on arties I would believe that 0 luck is enough. Based on my tests run with 1200 luck I hardly saw any influence at all. 200 luck is like... buying one lottery note in your life and expect to win the big one! (Someone, somewhere probably has).

    Regarding your testing: I respect and value your opinion build on years of experience with this game. However, if you conduct a test and varies more than one variable, you have to have a way of separating the variables, or you will not know what is important for your results. In your case, hunting method and luck has both been varied.

    Apart of that, as you point out yourself, one needs accurate data to evaluate the quality of the loot. As I showed in my answer to Rich - two hats with the same intensities can come out either semi-good or totally awesome depending on the random rolls.
    An item can have several 100% intensity rolls applied and still come out crummy because the combinations suck - how would you classify such an item? Average? Above average?
    There is a difference between what is a GOOD item and what is a high intensity item. Amour-luck will sometimes give you the high intensity items (se my next post), random luck will determine whether the item is actually GOOD loot.
  13. Boogieman

    Boogieman Guest

    Hoping that I haven't scared everybody away with my babbling about luck and intensities, I will proceed by posting my findings from hunting the serpentine dragon.

    Why serpentine dragon? Swoop and Guile and Travesty and Evil Jack and his uncle has better loot!
    Well, I've said it before. I want to see what luck does. Apart from not being feasible for me, hunting the super monsters will probably show more about the monsters than luck.

    Right, I killed 20 dragons wearing 0 luck, collecting in total 94 items and 20 dragons wearing 1310 luck, collecting 95 items. This already shows us that you won’t get more items by wearing luck. I suspect there is a capped value on each monster. However since the range was 3-6, there was difinately room for variation to show - and it didn't.

    wearing Luck 0:

    Average no of attributes 3,0
    Average point of resist added 5,4
    Average intensity added 37,9
    Amount on-off attributes 52

    Wearing Luck 1310:

    Average no of attributes 3,4
    Average point of resist added 6,4
    Average intensity added 42,0
    Amount on-off attributes 50

    Now, as is obvious from these figures there isn’t really that much difference on average, between wearing high luck and no luck at all.

    The average amount of attributes will increase marginally.

    The average intensity of attributes will increase from about 38% to 42%.
    Mind you, translated to item property that is the difference between say 7% and 8% LRC. Or 19% and 21% Damage Increase.

    The number of what I call on-off attributes were the same. These are attributes for which there is no intensity scale – they are either on the item, or off. (Spell channeling or mage armour for instance). What this shows is that these attributes are most likely down to random rolls - luck has no effect on these.

    Nothing uplifting here...

    However – taking some time to think about how luck works, I realized that average figures may not be a fair way to express the effect of luck.
    Luck is not an evenly spread icing on your cake – luck is more like the chocolate chunks in chocolate chip cookies. Part of the cookie will have more and larger chunks than other parts.
    This means that by taking an average I dilute the effect of luck. :dunce: <--me.
    I had to go and look for big, fat chunks ! And if luck works it will cause more fat chunks, than you get without luck. More and fatter chunks translates to more attributes and higher intensity. Every now and then.

    So here's what I found:

    Luck 0:

    No of items with 4 attributes: 25

    No of items with 5 attributes: 14

    Luck 1310:

    No of items with 4 attributes: 22

    No of items with 5 attributes:25

    Notice that the amount of items with 4 attributes is practically the same, but you get almost twice as many items with 5 attributes, when wearing luck! That's a difference! So we get more chunks in cookies - but are they fatter too?

    Luck 0:

    No of attributes between 80 and 90 intensity: 4
    No of attributes between 90 and 100 intensity: 2
    No of attributes at 100 % intensity: 0

    Luck 1310:

    No of attributes between 80 and 90 intensity: 6
    No of attributes between 90 and 100 intensity: 3
    No of attributes at 100 % intensity: 8

    So we get 50% more attributes between 80 and 90 intensity.
    We also get 50% more attributes between 90 and 100 intensity (well, one more in any case).
    And - last but not least: We get 8 attributes at 100% intensity wearing luck compared to none at all, when wearing no luck.

    Let me conclude this by summing up:
    Luck will increase the number of attributes on some items.
    Luck will increase the intensity of some attributes.

    With 1300 luck the size of the luck effect is this:
    25 items with 5 attributes (compared to 14 items at 0 luck)
    8 instances of 100% intensities (versus 0) from a total of 324 attributes. So your chance of getting one attribute with 100% is about 2,5 %

    So luck works, ever so rarely at least!
    Of course - what we see most often is that luck works in crummy ways and gives us 20% LRC on a stupid tribal mask with 20some resist, right? :eek: Well, that’s just BAD luck!

    Thanks to everybody who read this far :)
  14. Boogieman

    Boogieman Guest

    I know I should probably have shut up long ago, but since nobody is stopping me - well :lick:

    Anyways - if anyone out there wonders how their own luck set up affects the loot of their favorite victim (monster). Here's how:

    Dress up in your luck outfit.
    Kill as many monsters of choice as you can stomach.
    Keep an eye out for items with 100% intensities on them and collect them.
    Go to this page to get an idea of what the maximum intensity of an attribute.

    Count the amount of items you have collected. Some may be junk, but they still represent an intensity of 100%.

    Do the same without luck.
    Compare the counts and decide if your luck suit is worth it.

    Notice: Probably not all monsters will drop 100% intensity items, ettins and trolls won't do.